Pushkov Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere and Radio Wave Propagation
Russian Academy of Sciences
( founded in 1939 )
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Solar Activity Forecast

2018/12/10

      Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
                 Highlights on 03 - 10.12.2018,
                 Forecast on 11 - 18.12.2018,
            Carrington Rotation 2211 (23,17.11.2018)
            Earth out of ecliptic (+4.82- +4.60) deg. 
             (S24 - N26 is zone of geoeffectiveness)

THE SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN WAS AT THE VERY LOW AND LOW
LEVEL, THE SUN WAS SPOTLESS 3-4.12 (203 SPOTLESS DAYS AT 2018). ES-
TIMATED,  MOST LIKELY  WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT 
NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD W=006+4/-6 (Wn=
010+6/-10). ON THE SOLAR DISK ONE SUNSPOT GROUP HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.

NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY WILL STAY AT A VERY LOW LE-
VEL. LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN 
THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W= 010+10/-10. 

 THE FLARE ACTIVITY  WAS ON THE VERY LOW LEVEL. ONE FILAMENT EJECTI-
ON AND ONE CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES
        to   tm    te   local.    Class   E(1-8A)  AR   RII/IV CME
                                X-ray/p   J/m-2
DSF     to      te  localization   l  .  Fl    AR    CME/to
05.12 >1444 >1132 N34E38L226        5 
-------------------------------------------------------------------------

NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW LEVELS.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
------------------------------------------------------------------------
  sign   N end   E end   S end  W end    Sch    EE   R  G  Space Obser.
Sch - CH Square in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on 
https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; 
EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. 
G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. 
A-active geomagnetic condition.
------------------------------------------------------------------------

 AFTER 8.12/21 UT EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNE-
TIC FIELD. NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY -/+ THE EARTH MUST PASS 12.12.
--------------------------------------------------------------------- 
DECEMBER 03     04     05     06     07     08     09   DECEMBER
Wus     000    000    016    017    016    012    012  
F10.7   068    069    071    070    070    069    072  
bcg  <1.0  <1.0   1.9   1.9   1.7   2.3   4.6   GOES
Sp      000    000    030    050    050    010   010    msh   
N                                             
IMF      +      +      +      +      +     +/-    -     DSCOVR   
>2  7.7E+5 1.9E+6 2.0E+6 3.9+6 3.6+6 1.3E+7 1.2E+7   GOES
Ie>2                                                    pfu 
Ap       11     8      5     5      10     10     11    n  
Dst                                                     n KIOTO
Amsc     10     10     4     5      11     9      10    n IZMIRAN 
--------------------------------------------------------------------
>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or-
bits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.

 THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT HAVE 
NOT BEEN OBSERVED.  
 
 NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS 
ORBIT IS NOT EXPECTED .

 THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION REMAINED UNSETTLED AND QUITE.

 THE NEXT WEEK IS MOST PROBABILITY OF QUIET AND UNSETTLED GEOMAGNE-
TIC CONDITION. 
 
HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA               http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, 
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM               http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, 
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA  http://www.izmiran.ru
                                                          V. Ishkov