Pushkov Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, the Ionosphere and Radio Wave Propagation
Russian Academy of Sciences
( founded in 1939 )
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Solar Activity Forecast

2018/02/11

      Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
              Highlights on 05- 10.02.2018,
                Forecast on 11 - 19.01.2018,
         Carrington Rotation 2200 (27,28.01.2018)
        Earth out of ecliptic (-6.3 - -6.8) deg. 
             (S33 - N23 is geoeffectiveness zone)

 SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY  WAS ON THE LOW LEVEL. THE ESTIMATED, 
MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER  
IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old)  FOR THE PERIOD W = 011+10/-8 
(Wn = 018+15/-6). ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK 1 SMALL, RELATIVELY 
ACTIVE SUNSPOT GROUP HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.    

 NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY WILL BE ON THE LOW AND 
VERY LOW LEVEL. LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUN-
SPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK 
IS W=020+20/-10.  

 FLARE ACTIVITY  WAS ON THE LOW LEVEL AT 6-7 AND 10.09 AND VERY 
LOW LEVEL IN OTHER DAYS. TWO EJECTA OF SOLAR FILAMENTS REGISTE-
RED ON PERIOD. THE CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS WERE NOT OBSERVED.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
FLARES FROM M1 CLASSES
        to   tm    te   local.     Class   E(1-8A)  AR   RII/IV   CME
                                 X-ray/p  J/m-2
DSF     
        to      te  localization   l  .  Fl    AR    CME/to
05.02 >0000   >0025  S01W44L118       5
06.02 >0016   >1423  S33W12L203      16                    
---------------------------------------------------------------------
NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT LOW AND VERY LOW LEVELS.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
---------------------------------------------------------------------
  sign   N end   E end   S end  W end    Sch    EE   R  G  Space Obser.
  -  S00L170 S03L175  S10L151 S05L143       11.02   1    SOHO, SDO...
  -  N20L189 N12L204  N10L189 S05L163       15.02   4    SOHO, SDO...
Sch - CH Square in Mm**2 (in square megameters) near the central meri-
dian on http://sdowww.lmsal.com/suntoday/; n/d - no data;
R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the 
Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on
the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition.
------------------------------------------------------------------------

AFTER 02.02/0230 UT EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC
FIELD, BUT 8-10.02 THE SIGN OF SECTOR IS VERY UNSTABLE AND FREQUENTLY 
CHANGING. NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY -/+ EARTH MUST PASS 16.02.

FEBRUARY  05     06     07     08     09     10     11    FEBRUARY
Wus      013    017    020    022    023    035    
F10.7    074    077    077    078    078    078    
bcg    9.5   6.6   A6.1   A6.1   A5.5   A6.4       GOES
Sp       130    160    200    200    210    240        msh   
N                                                   
IMF       +      +      +     +/-    -/+    +/-    -    DSCOVR   
>2   3.2E+6 1.4E+6 9.0E+5 1.1+6 1.8+6 1.9+6      GOES
Ie>2     204                                              pfu 
Ap        4      5      6      3      4      5           n  
Dst                                                       n KIOTO
Amsc      3      3      7      6      6      6           n IZMIRAN 
--------------------------------------------------------------------
>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or-
bits in days according to GOES15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT HAS NOT 
OBSERVED.
 
NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS OR-
BIT IS NOT EXPECTED.

GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS QUIET IN THE PERIOD.  

 NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS EXPECTED UNSETTLED AND QUIET.
BUT 15 - 16.02  POSSIBLE INCREASE OF GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE  DUE TO 
EARTH's PASSING OF HIGH SPEED STREAM FROM CORONAL HOLE NOTHERN HEMI-
SPHERE. PROBABILITY OF MAGNETIC STORM ON THESE DAYS IS NOT MORE THAN 
10% - ON THE PAST ROTATION THIS STREAM  ON  MID-LATITUDE GEOMAGNETIC 
DISTURBANCE IS NOT OBSERVED.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA               http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, 
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM               http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, 
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA  http://www.izmiran.ru
                                                          V. Ishkov