Solar Activity Forecast
2018/08/20
Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 12 - 19.08.2018,
Forecast on 20 - 27.08.2018,
Carrington Rotation 2207 (06,1.08.2018)
Earth out of ecliptic (-0.2 - +0.2) deg.
(S25 - N25 is zone of geoeffectiveness)
THE SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN WAS ON THE VERY LOW LEVEL:
THE SUN WAS SPOTLESS 13.08 ONLY (132 DAYS IN CURRENT YEAR). ESTIMA-
TED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUM-
BER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD W = 006+3/-6 (Wn=
010+4/-10). ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK 2 SMALL, QUITE SUNSPOT GROUP
HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.
NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY WILL BE ON THE VERY LOW LE-
VELS. LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN
THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W=010+10/-10.
THE FLARE ACTIVITY WAS ON THE VERY LOW LEVEL. 3 FILAMENT EJECTION
AND 3 CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.
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FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES
to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME
X-ray/Ïp J/m-2
DSF to te localization l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl AR CME/to
14.08 >0108 >1308 N17W51L190 16
15.08 >0053 >1340 N16W58L170 5
19.08 <0546 <0621 S09W06L179 6 12718 óíå/0716
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NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW LEVELS.
ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
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sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Space Obser.
CH - N21L266 S12L278 S15L273 N10L253 15.08 R1 SDO, ACE...
CH + Pn N45L318 S15L321 S00L308 16.08 R1 SDO, ACE...
CH - N12L183 N00L191 S07L185 N05L183 20.08 R1 SDO, ACE...
CH - S03L208 S20L223 S22L218 S18L203 22.08 R1 SDO, ACE...
Last two CH may be the parts of one.
Sch - CH Square in Mm**2 (in square megameters) near the central meri-
dian on http://sdowww.lmsal.com/suntoday/; n/d - no data;
R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the
Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on
the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition.
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AFTER 12.08/2215 UT EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAG-
NETIC FIELD. NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY +/- THE EARTH MUST PASS 18.08.
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AUGUST 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 AUGUST
Wus 000 012 012 012 011 011 015
F10.7 068 069 069 068 067 067 067
èbcg á1.0 á1.6 á1.4 á1.4 á1.3 á1.3 á1.2 GOES
Sp 000 010 010 010 020 010 010 msh
N
IMF + + + + + + + DSCOVR
Å>2 7.8E+5 1.3E+6 8.7å+5 8.0E+6 1.2å+7 1.9å+8 4.7E+8 GOES
Ie>2 background 391 399 7217 18287 pfu
Ap 5 4 13 12 15 12 11 nô
Dst nô KIOTO
Amsc 5 4 16 10 16 6 8 nô IZMIRAN
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Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or-
bits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.
THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BEGUN AT
18.08/1410 AND 18-19.08 HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.
NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS
ORBIT IS EXPECTED 20-27.08.
THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS ACTIVE 15 AND 17.08 AND QUITE AND UN-
SETTLED IN OTHER DAYS.
THE NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS EXPECTED TO BE PRIMARILY
QUITE, WITH A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED ACTIVE CONDITION 20-22.08 DUE TO
INFLUENCES FROM HIGH SPEED STREAM FROM CORONAL HOLE WITH WEAK MAGNE-
TIC FIELDS.
HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE,
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3,
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru
V. Ishkov
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