Solar Activity Forecast
2016/09/24
Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 19 - 23.09 2016,
Forecast on 24.09 - 02.10.2016,
Carrington Rotation 2181, 2182 (26,89.08; 23,15.09.2016)
Earth above the ecliptic + 7.05 deg.
(S20-N30 geoeffectiveness zone)
SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY REMAINED AT AN AVERAGE LEVEL. THE
ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUN-
SPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE PERIOD IS
W = 024+10/-6 (Wn = 038+4/-11). ON THE VISIBLE DISK OF THE SUN
4-3 SMALL SUNSPOT GROUP WERE CONSTANTLY OBSERVED ON THE VISIBLE
SOLAR DISK.
NEXT WEEK IT IS EXPECTED THE AVERAGE AND THE LOW LEVELS. THE ES-
TIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUN-
SPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK
IS W=020+10/-10.
FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE LOW LEVEL 21 -22.09 AND THE VERY LOW
IN OTHER DAYS. THERE WAS ONLY ONE SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTIONS OC-
CURRENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. ACCORDING TO THE SOHO AND STEREO
CORONOGRAPHS DATA > 11 CMEs HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.
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FLARES to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME
X-ray/Ïp J/m-2
DSF to te ËÏÏÒÄÉÎÁÔÙ l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl Aï CME/to
19.09 >0051 >1316 N47E10L 4
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NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW AND LOW LEVELS.
ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
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sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Space Obser.
CH + N09L013 S05L009 S10L011 S07L018 4200 25.09 4 G1 SDO, SOHO..
CH + N60L274 N45L252 N12L322 N25L342 275700 28.09 3 G0 SDO, SOHO..
CH + N03L310 S05L282 S15L292 S23L322 01.10 6 G0 SDO, SOHO..
Second CH is part of polar CH;
Sch - CH Square in Mm**2 (in square megameters) near the central meri-
dian on http://sdowww.lmsal.com/suntoday/; n/d - no data;
R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the
Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on
the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition.
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FROM 15.09/20 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAG-
NETIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY -/+ THE EARTH HAS TO PASS
25.09.
SEPTEMBER 19 20 21 22 23 SEPTEMBER
Wus 056 032 035 030 049
F10.7 083 085 086 085 086
èbcg B1.2 B1.5 B2.0 B1.6 B1.2 GOES
Sp 100 170 170 100 130 msh
N 1 1
IMF - - - - - áóå
Å>2 1.2å+6 1.6å+6 4.5å+7 2.4å+7 2.3E+7 GOES
Ie>2 1366 1014 516 pfu GOES
Ap 10 21 10 3 4 nT BOULDER
Dst -30 -36 -21 nô KIOTO
Amsc 11 16 10 4 4 nT IZMIRAN
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Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or-
bits in days according to GOES15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.
THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS BE-
GINING 21/1430 UT AND OBSERVED 21 - 22.09.
THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY
HIGH LEVEL IS EXPECTED 26.09 - 02.10.
GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION CHANGED FROM QUITE to ACTIVE. MINOR MAGNETIC
STORM (G1, Ams= 32, dur.= 12 h.) ACCORDING TO THE CENTRE IN BOULDER
REGISTERED IN THE FIRST HALF DAYS 20.09. ACCORDING IZMIRAN DATA THIS
DAY MARKED ONLY ACTIVE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION.
NEXT WEEK 25.09 EARTH WILL BE PASSED INTO THE HIGH-SPEED STREAM OF
THE SOLAR WIND FROM THE TRANSEQUATORIAL CORONAL HOLE AND WILL CROSS
SECTOR BOUNDER -/+. STRENGTHENING OF GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE TO THE
MINOR LEVEL TO THE MAGNETIC STORM IS POSSIBLE (~ 30%). USETTLED TO
ACTIVE ARE LIKELY ON 26.09 DUE TO THE ONSET OF A RECCURENT, TRANS-
EQUATORIAL, POSITIVE POLARITY CH HSS ENHANCING THE NEAR-EARTH SPACE
ENVIRONEVENT. AFTER WHICH UNTIL THE END OF THE PERIOD THE UNSETTLED
GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WILL BE ESTABLISHED.
HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE,
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3,
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru
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