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Solar Activity Forecast

2017/03/27

      Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
                Highlights on 20 - 26.03.2017,
                 Forecast on 27.03 - 02.04.2017,
            Carrington Rotation 2188 (6,06.03.2017)
           Earth above the ecliptic (-7.0, -6,8) deg. 
               (S35-N20 is geoeffectiveness zone)

 SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY WAS ON A VERY LOW LEVEL AND 20.03 WAS SPOT-
LESS DAY (27 IN CURRENT YEAR). THE ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVE-
RAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM 
(old) FOR THE PERIOD IS W=06+6/-6 (Wn= 09+10/-9). ON THE VISIBLE DISC 
OF THE SUN 0-1 SMALL QUITE SUNSPOT GROUP HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.

NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT THE VERY LOW LEVEL. 
THE ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUN-
SPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W=
20+20/-10.

FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE VERY LOW AND LOW (26.03) LEVELS. FOUR SOLAR 
FILAMENT EJECTIONS  OCCURRENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD.  ACCORDING TO THE 
SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS DATA > 3 CMEs HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
FLARES   to   tm   te   local.     Class   E(1-8A)  AR   RII/IV   CME
                                  X-ray/p  J/m-2
DSF     to     te      l  . Fl     A        CME/to
20.03 >0044  >1417   N40W24L200      5  
20.03 >1554  >0928   S14E32L144      7 
22.03 >1621  >0724   N10E32L118     11
23.03 >1617  >0835   S11W11L147      9
----------------------------------------------------------------------
NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT A VERY LOW LEVELS. 

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
---------------------------------------------------------------------
  sign   N end   E end   S end  W end    Sch    EE   R G   Space Obser.
CH  +  S02L194 S15L189  S18L201 S13L203        21.03 1      SDO, SOHO..
CH  +  N20L166 S33L158  S25L173 S25L183 94900  22.03 6  G1  SDO, SOHO..
CH  -  N20L115 S45L040  S50L050 N05L122 97600  28.03 8  G1  SDO, SOHO..
Sch - CH Square in Mm**2 (in square megameters) near the central meri-
dian on http://sdowww.lmsal.com/suntoday/; n/d - no data;
R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the 
Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on
the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition.
------------------------------------------------------------------------

 FROM 26.03/2130 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAG-
NETIC FIELD. 24 -25.03 THE SIGN OF SECTORS REPEATEDLY CHANGED. THE FOLLO-
WING SECTOR BOUNDARY -/+ THE EARTH HAS EXPECTED TO PASS 10.04.

RCH    20     21     22     23     24     25     26      RCH
Wus     000    011    012    012    012    011    020 
F10.7   073    071    073    072    072    074    077 
bcg   1.9   2.8   1.8   1.6   1.2  <1.0   A3.0      GOES
Sp      000    020    030    020    010    010    050  msh   
N               1                                  1 
IMF      +      +      +      +     +/-    -/+    +/-      DSCOVR   
>2  1.4+7 2.3+6 4.6E+7 5.5E+8 4.8E+8 5.0+8 4.9+8      GOES
Ie>2    459    244   3545  19135  11259   8821   8330  pfu 
Ap       2      25     28     11     6      6      4   n  BOULDER 
Dst            -28    -35    -42                       n  KIOTO 
Amsc     3      25     31     10     6      3      4   n  IZMIRAN 
------------------------------------------------------------------
>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or-
bits in days according to GOES15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS BE-
GINING AT 22.03/1530 UT AND OBSERVED 22 - 26.03.   

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY 
HIGH LEVEL IS EXPECTED 28.03 - 02.04.

MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G1, Ams = 30, dur. = 39 h.) BY THE DATA OF THE 
CENTER IN BOULDER HAS BEEN NOTE 21 -23.03. ACCORDING TO THE DATA OF 
IZMIRAN 21.03 IT WAS NOTED SUBSTORM G1 INTENSITY (9 h.), AND 22.03 A 
MODERATE MAGNETIC STORM (G1, Ams=44, dur.=15 h.) IS REGISTERED. THIS
GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE IS THE CONSEQUENCE OF THE  HIGH-SPEED STREAM 
FROM THE RECURRENT TRANSEQUATORIAL CORONAL HOLE "+" POLARITY. ON THE 
OTHER DAYS THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS QUIET.

NEXT WEEK GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION EXPECTED ACTIVE WITH THE POSSIBILITY 
OF GROWTH UP TO THE LEVEL OF A MAGNETIC STORM 27-29.03  DUE THE PAS-
SAGE BY EARTH OF  THE SOLAR WIND HIGH-SPEED STREAM  FROM  RECURRENT 
TRANS-EQUATORIAL CORONAL HOLE "-" POLARITY. PROBABILITY OF MAGNETIC 
STORM NOT LESS 90%. FOR OTHER DAYS THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WILL BE 
QUIET AND UNSETTLED.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA               http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, 
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM               http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, 
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA  http://www.izmiran.ru
                                                          V. Ishkov