Pushkov Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere and Radio Wave Propagation
Russian Academy of Sciences
( founded in 1939 )
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Solar Activity Forecast

2018/04/23

     Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
               Highlights on 09 - 15.04.2018,
                Forecast on 16 - 23.04.2018,
   Carrington Rotation 2002, 2003 (22.94.03; 19,22.04.2018)
           Earth out of ecliptic (-2.9 - -2.5) deg. 
           (S25 - N25 is zone o geoeffectiveness)

THE SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN WAS ON VERY LOW LEVEL,
THE VISIBLE DISK  WAS SPOTLESS 16 - 18.04 (67 d ON THE CURRENT 
YEAR).  THE ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE 
RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old)  FOR 
THE PERIOD. ON THE VISIBLE DISK IT WAS OBSERVED TWO SMALL, QUI-
TE SUNSPOT GROUP. ONE, BIGER, WAS FORMED IN THE NORTHERN HEMI-
SPHERE (N04) ON THE REVERSE SIDE OF THE SUN HAS APPEARANCE 10.
04  AND ON THE VISIBLE DISK 18.04.  AFTER 20.04 IN IT THE NEW 
MAGNETIC FLUX HAS APPEARED (EVOLUTIONARY), AREA  IS UP TO 110 
msh - FLARES OF THE X-RAY CLASS B ONLY HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. 

 NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY  WILL BE ON THE VERY 
LOW LEVEL. LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT 
NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old)  FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS 
W=010+10/-10.  

 FLARE ACTIVITY WAS ON THE VERY LOW LEVELS ON PERIOD. ONE EJEC-
TA OF SOLAR FILAMENTS AND FOUR CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS (17  AND 
21.04) HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
FLARES FROM M1 CLASSES
        to   tm    te   local.     Class   E(1-8A)  AR   RII/IV   CME
                                 X-ray/p  J/m-2
DSF     
        to      te  localization   l  .  Fl    AR    CME/to
20.04  0628    0843  N45W55l279       10
---------------------------------------------------------------------
NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW LEVELS.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
---------------------------------------------------------------------
  sign   N end   E end   S end  W end    Sch    EE    R  G  Space Obser.
  -  N20L050 N17L090  S35L050 N10L002 18400 20.04   4 G0 SOHO,SDO...
Sch - CH Square in Mm**2 (in square megameters) near the central meri-
dian on http://sdowww.lmsal.com/suntoday/; n/d - no data;
R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the 
Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on
the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition.
------------------------------------------------------------------------

 AFTER 12.04/0430 UT EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF INTERPLANETARY MAG-
NETIC FIELD. NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY -/+ THE EARTH MUST PASS 25.04.

APRIL     16     17     18     19     20     21     22   APRIL
Wus      000    000    000    014    014    034    020 
F10.7    069    069    071    071    073    077    076 
bcg    1.5   1.6   2.7   3.7   5.7   6.2   5.3   GOES
Sp       000    000    000    020    040    120    130   msh   
N                                                   
IMF      ~/-    ~/-    ~/-   ~/-     ~/-     -      -   DSCOVR   
>2   1.8E+8 1.7E+8 1.0E+8 3.5+7 2.8+7 5.5+8 8.8+8   GOES
Ie>2    6481   4585   4403   1782   2168  21310  24055   pfu 
Ap        2      3      5      2      42     12     6    n  
Dst                                                      n KIOTO
Amsc      2      3      5      4      27     13     6    n IZMIRAN 
--------------------------------------------------------------------
>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or-
bits in days according to GOES15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT HAS 
BEGAN AT 10.04/0430 UT AND OBSERVED 10.03 - 22.04.  
 
 NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS 
ORBIT IS EXPECTED 23 - 30.04.

MODERATE (G2, Ams=48, dur.=21 h.) ACCORDING CENTER IN BOULDER DATA, 
AND MINOR (G1, Ams=31, dur.=18 h.) ACCORDING TO IZMIRAN DATA MAGNE-
TIC STORM  IS REGISTERED 20.04,  AS A RESULT OF COOPERATIVE IMPACT 
OF THE INTERPLANETARY SHOCK (SSC 19.04/2350 UT - THE SOURCE IS NOT 
KNOWN) AND PASSINGS BY THE EARTH OF THE SOLAR WIND HIGH-SPEED STRE-
AM FROM TRANS-EQUATORIAL CORONAL HOLE.  GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION  WAS  
UNSETTLED AND QUITE IN OTHER DAYS.   

NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION SHOULD BE QUITE AND UNSETTLED.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA               http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, 
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM               http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, 
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA  http://www.izmiran.ru
                                                          V. Ishkov