Solar Activity Forecast
2017/08/14
Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 07 - 13.08.2017,
Forecast on 14 - 21.08.2017,
Carrington Rotation 2193, 2194 (20.07; 16,48.08.2017)
Earth above the ecliptic (3,3; 4,0) deg.
(S32 - N35 is geoeffectiveness zone)
SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY WAS ON THE VERY LOW LEVEL. THE ESTIMATED,
MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN
THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE PERIOD W=007+0/-0 (Wn= 011+
0/-0). ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK 1 SMALL AND QUITE SUNSPOT GROUP.
NEXT WEEK LEVEL OF SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN AT A VERY
LOW LEVEL AND AFTER 14.08 THE PERIOD OF SPOTLESS SUN WHICH WILL
NEXT 2 DAYS TO THE EXIT FROM E-LIMB SMALL SUNSPOT GROUP (behind the
E-limb 14.08) WILL BEGIN. THERE IS A PROBABILITY THAT SPOTLESS DAYS
WILL BE OBSERVED UNTIL THE END OF THE PERIOD. MOST LIKELY WEEKLY
AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL
SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W= 000+20/-00.
FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT A VERY LOW ALL DAYS. ONE SOLAR FILAMENT EJEC-
TIONS OCCURRENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. ACCORDING TO THE DATA FROM
SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS 1 CMEs HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.
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FLARES to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME
X-ray/Ïp J/m-2
DSF to te ËÏÏÒÄÉÎÁÔÙ l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl Aï CME/to
10.08 >1655 >1346 S26E71L017 10
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NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN AT A VERY LOW AND LOW LEVELS.
ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
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sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Space Obser.
CH + N28L108 N08L098 N03L100 N05L116 12.08 2 G0 SDO, SOHO...
CH + N50L008 N30L318 N17L023 N22L040 16.08 4 SDO, SOHO...
Sch - CH Square in Mm**2 (in square megameters) near the central meri-
dian on http://sdowww.lmsal.com/suntoday/; n/d - no data;
R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the
Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on
the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition.
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11.08/0430 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNE-
TIC FIELD. NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY -/+ EARTH SHOULD BE PASSED 0N 17.08.
AUGUST 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 AUGUST
Wus 011 011 011 011 011 011 011
F10.7 073 071 072 071 070 070 068
èbcg á5.2 á3.9 á3.5 á3.3 á3.0 á2.7 á2.9 GOES
Sp 140 120 130 110 110 110 110 msh
N
IMF + + + + +/- - - DSCOVR
Å>2 4.4å+8 5.3å+8 3.9E+8 3.2å+8 1.4å+8 2.6å+7 3.8å+7 GOES
Ie>2 4301 10425 7825 6774 4952 920 978 pfu
Ap 5 4 4 5 7 11 7 nô
Dst nô KIOTO
Amsc 4 4 5 6 7 10 8 nô IZMIRAN
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Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or-
bits in days according to GOES15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.
THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS BE-
GIN 5.08/1405 UT UT AND WAS OBSERVED 05 - 11.08.
THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY
HIGH LEVEL IS EXPECTED 14 - 21.08.
GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS UNSETTLED AND QUIET ALL PERIOD.
NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WILL BE UNSETTLED AND QUIET.
HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE,
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3,
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru
V. Ishkov
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