Solar Activity Forecast
2019/06/17
Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 10 - 16.06.2019,
Forecast on 17 - 24.06.2019,
Carrington Rotation 2218 (29.5.06.2019)
Earth out of ecliptic (-3.4 - -2.5) deg.
(S25 - N25 is zone of geoeffectiveness)
THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS AT THE VERY LOW LEVEL
AND THE SOLAR DISC IS SPOTLESS (103 SPOTLESS DAYS IN CURRENT
YEAR). ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RE-
LATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR
PERIOD W = 0 (Wn = 0).
NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY WAS ON VERY LOW LE-
VELS. THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK EXPECTED SPOTLESS. LIKELY WEEKLY
AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATI-
ONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W=010+20/-10.
FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE VERY LOW LEVEL. NO SOLAR FILAMENT
AND CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.
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FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES
to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME
X-ray/Ïp J/m-2
DSF to te localization l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl AR CME/to
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NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW LEVEL.
ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
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sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Space Obser.
CH + N50L259 N40L274 N12L264 N25L249 ~2,6% 11.05 R1 - SDO, SOHO...
Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on
https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations;
EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment.
G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes.
A-active geomagnetic condition.
THE OTHER CORONAL "PSEUDOHOLES" NUMBER UP TO 9, EXCLUDING THE POLAR,
ON CONDITION OF ENVIRONMENT DO NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT EFFECT.
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AFTER 03.06/1629 UT EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAG-
NETIC FIELD. THE SIGN OF THE FIELD IS UNSTABLE AND OFTEN VARIABLE IN
VERY SMALL VALUES. NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY +/- THE EARTH MUST PASS 25.06.
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JUNE 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 JUNE
Wus 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000
F10.7 068 069 070 070 068 068 069 067
èbcg á6.8 á6.8 á7.0 á6.9 A6.9 A6.9 á6.8 á6.7 GOES
Sp 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 msh
N
IMF + + + + + +/- -/+ + DSCOVR
Å>2 4.0E+5 5.1E+5 6.0E+5 4.6E+5 7.0E+5 2.0E+6 1.9å+6 2.9Å+6 GOES
Ie>2 pfu
Ap 6 3 3 4 10 8 4 4 nô
Dst nô KIOTO
Amsc 6 4 3 4 8 7 4 3 nô IZMIRAN
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Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or-
bits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.
THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT NOT OB-
SERVED.
NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS OR-
BIT IS NOT EXPECTED.
The GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION AT MIDDLE LATITUDES ALL DAYS REMAINED QUIET
AND UNSETTLED.
NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS MOST PROBABLE QUIET AND UNSET-
TLED.
HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE,
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3,
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru
V. Ishkov
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