Pushkov Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere and Radio Wave Propagation
Russian Academy of Sciences
( founded in 1939 )
Home  UP  Research Projects Services Info News Events Personal Archive

Solar Activity Forecast

2019/06/17

      Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
                  Highlights on 10 - 16.06.2019,
                   Forecast on 17 - 24.06.2019,
             Carrington Rotation 2218 (29.5.06.2019)    
             Earth out of ecliptic (-3.4 - -2.5) deg. 
             (S25 - N25 is zone of geoeffectiveness)

 THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS AT THE VERY LOW LEVEL 
AND THE SOLAR DISC  IS SPOTLESS (103 SPOTLESS DAYS IN CURRENT 
YEAR). ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RE-
LATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER  IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR 
PERIOD W = 0 (Wn = 0). 

 NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY  WAS ON VERY LOW LE-
VELS. THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK EXPECTED SPOTLESS. LIKELY WEEKLY 
AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATI-
ONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W=010+20/-10. 

 FLARE ACTIVITY  WAS AT THE VERY LOW LEVEL. NO SOLAR FILAMENT 
AND CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. 
-------------------------------------------------------------------
FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES
        to   tm    te   local.    Class   E(1-8A)  AR   RII/IV CME
                                X-ray/p   J/m-2
DSF     to          te  localization   l  .  Fl    AR    CME/to
--------------------------------------------------------------------

NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW LEVEL.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
 sign N end   E end   S end   W end    Sch    EE   R   G  Space Obser.
CH +  N50L259 N40L274 N12L264 N25L249  ~2,6% 11.05 R1  -  SDO, SOHO...
Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on 
https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; 
EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. 
G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. 
A-active geomagnetic condition. 
THE OTHER CORONAL "PSEUDOHOLES" NUMBER UP TO 9, EXCLUDING THE POLAR, 
ON CONDITION OF ENVIRONMENT DO NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT EFFECT.
----------------------------------------------------------------------

 AFTER 03.06/1629 UT EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAG-
NETIC FIELD. THE SIGN OF THE FIELD  IS UNSTABLE AND OFTEN VARIABLE IN 
VERY SMALL VALUES. NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY +/- THE EARTH MUST PASS 25.06.
----------------------------------------------------------------------- 
JUNE     09     10     11     12     13     14     15     16    JUNE
Wus     000    000    000    000    000    000    000    000
F10.7   068    069    070    070    068    068    069    067
bcg   6.8   6.8   7.0   6.9   A6.9   A6.9   6.8   6.7    GOES
Sp      000    000    000    000    000    000    000    000    msh   
N                                
IMF      +      +      +      +      +     +/-    -/+     +     DSCOVR   
>2  4.0E+5 5.1E+5 6.0E+5 4.6E+5 7.0E+5 2.0E+6 1.9+6 2.9+6    GOES
Ie>2                                                            pfu 
Ap       6      3      3      4      10     8      4      4     n  
Dst                                                             n KIOTO
Amsc     6      4      3      4      8      7      4      3     n IZMIRAN 
-------------------------------------------------------------------------            
>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or-
bits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT NOT OB-
SERVED. 
 
NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS OR-
BIT IS NOT EXPECTED.

The GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION AT MIDDLE LATITUDES ALL DAYS REMAINED QUIET 
AND UNSETTLED.   

NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS MOST PROBABLE QUIET AND UNSET-
TLED. 

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA               http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, 
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM               http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, 
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA  http://www.izmiran.ru
                                                          V. Ishkov