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Solar Activity Forecast

2016/08/29

      Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
               Highlights on 22 - 28.08 2016,
                Forecast on 29.08 - 05.09.2016,
   Carrington Rotation 2180, 2181 (30,65.07;26.89.08.2016)
  
SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN REMAINED ON THE MIDDLE LEVEL. 
THE ESTIMATED,  MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE 
SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old)  FOR THE PERIOD 
IS W= 028+10/-8 (W= 044+17/-12). ON THE VISIBLE DISK OF THE SUN 
2 - 4 SMALL SUNSPOT GROUP.

 NEXT WEEK IT IS EXPECTED THE MIDDLE AND THE LOW LEVEL AFTER 1.09 
OF SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY.  THE ESTIMATED,  MOST LIKELY  WEEKLY 
AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL 
SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W = 020+10/-10. 

 FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE VERY LOW LEVEL. ACCORDING TO THE SOHO 
AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS DATA > 3 CMEs, HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.

----------------------------------------------------------------------
FLARES   to   tm   te   local.     Class   E(1-8A)  AR   RII/IV   CME
                                  X-ray/p  J/m-2
DSF     to        te      l  . Fl     A   CME/to
----------------------------------------------------------------------
NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW AND LOW LEVELS. 

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
---------------------------------------------------------------------
  sign   N end   E end   S end  W end    Sch   EE   R G  Space Obser.
CH  -  S05L086  S18L071 S22L083 S10L091       23.08 6 G0 SDO, SOHO..
CH  -     Pn   N45L>225 N15L285 N25L315       01.09 6 G1 SDO, SOHO..
Sch - CH Square in Mm**2 (in square megameters) near the central meri-
dian on http://sdowww.lmsal.com/suntoday/; n/d - no data;
R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the 
Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on
the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition.
------------------------------------------------------------------------

 FROM 26.08/22 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAG-
NETIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY -/+ THE EARTH HAS TO PASS 
29.08.

   22     23     24     25     26     27     28     
Wus     033    047    043    039    044    052    064      
F10.7   080    081    078    079    082    084    085 
bcg   A7.7   A9.6   A8.5   A8.7   B1.0   B1.0   B1.1      GOES
Sp      080    120    120    120    110    130    200  msh   
N        2                                  1      1
IMF      +      +      +     +/-     -      -      -           
>2  2.6+6 2.8+6 2.6+6 3.3+7 3.8E+7 9.0E+7 1.1+8       GOES
Ie>2           293    107   1295   1334   2334   2161  pfu  GOES 
Ap       4      21     19     9      7      5      3   nT   BOULDER 
Dst                                                    n   KIOTO 
Amsc     8      24     14     11     8      7      7   nT   IZMIRAN 
--------------------------------------------------------------------
>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or-
bits in days according to GOES15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS BE-
GINING 25/1900 UT AND OBSERVED 25 - 28.08. 

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY 
HIGH LEVEL IS EXPECTED 29 - 30.08.

GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION CHANGED FROM UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE. MINOR MAGNE-
TIC STORM (G1, Ams=40, dur.=15 h.) ACCORDING TO IZMIRAN DATA AND (G1, 
Ams=37, dur.=15 h.) ACCORDING TO THE CENTER IN BOULDER, IT IS REGISTE-
RED 23 - 24.08 AS RESULT BY THE EARTH PASSING OF THE SOLAR WIND HIGH-
SPEED STREAM FROM THE CORONAL HOLE ("-" POLARITY).

NEXT WEEK GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS EXPECTED UNSETTLED. HOWEVER 29-30.
08 ACTIVE CONDITNION BECAUSE EARTH's PASSING OF SOLAR WIND HIGH-SPEED 
STREAM THE BY THE NEXT TRANS-EQUATORIAL CORONAL HOLE ("-"POLARITY) IS 
POSSIBLE. PROBABILITY OF THE MAGNETIC STORM ~ 20%. 

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA               http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, 
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM               http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, 
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA  http://www.izmiran.ru