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Solar Activity Forecast

2016/07/25

      Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
               Highlights on 18 - 24.07.2016,
              Forecast on 25 - 31.07.2016,
          Carrington Rotation 2179, 2180 (03,07, 30,65.2016)
  
 SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN  REMAINED ON THE AVERAGE  AND 
THE LOW LEVELS AT LAST DAY OF PERIODS. THE ESTIMATED,  MOST LIKELY 
WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNA-
TIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE PERIOD IS W=027+14/-17 (W= 041+24/-26). 
ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK 4 - 1 SUNSPOT GROUPS TWO MIDDLE SIZE (COM-
PONENTS OF ACTIVE REGION COMPLEX - CAR) WERE CONSTANTLY OBSERVED. 

 NEXT WEEK IT IS EXPECTED THE AVERAGE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTI-
VITY. THE ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATI-
VE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WE-
EK IS W = 020+10/-20. 

 FLARE ACTIVITY  WAS AT THE HIGH LEVEL 23, THE AVERAGE - 20, 22 AND
24.07, AND THE LOW IN OTHER DAYS. THERE WAS ONE SOLAR FILAMENT EJEC-
TION OCCURRENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. ACCORDING TO THE DATA FROM SOHO  
AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS >12 CMEs, ONE TYPE II (angular width 90 -180 
deg.) HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.

----------------------------------------------------------------------
FLARES   to   tm   te   local.     Class   E(1-8A)  AR   RII/IV   CME
                                  X-ray/p  J/m-2
21.07 0042 0046 >0050 N03W42L168 M1.2/   3.5E-03 12567 
21.07 0134 0149 >0204 N02W43L168 M1.0/   1.2E-02 12567
23.07 0146 0211 >0223 N05W73L168 M5.0/   5.4E-02 12567
23.07 0500 0516  0633 N02W74L168 M7.6/3B 4.6E-02 12567 CME/0524, 0630   
      0527 0531  0633            M5.5/3B 1.1E-02 12567 II/1 IV/2 
24.07 0609 0620 >0632 N03W84L168 M2.0/SF 1.7E-02 12567
24.07 1730 1743 >1812            M1.9/   3.6E-02 12567       
                                  
DSF     to      te  Localization   l  .   Fl     A      CME/to
23.07 >0140    >1257    N41E48L042      7
----------------------------------------------------------------------
NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON THE LOW AND VERY LOW LEVELS.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
---------------------------------------------------------------------
  sign   N end   E end   S end  W end    Sch   EE   R G  Space Obser.
CH -   S19L209 S28L184 S31L189 S25L216  21500    18.07 3 G0 SDO, SOHO..
CH -   N31L170 N28L146 N15L158 N25L180 148000    20.07 3 G0 SDO, SOHO..
CH +   N30L090 N25L087 N15L105 N18L108   9400    25.07 2 G0 SDO, SOHO..
CH +   Pn      N55L031 N28L086 N40L094  74100    26.07 2 G0 SDO, SOHO..
CH -   N10L066 N08L064 S15L071 S02L078  22200    28.07 5 G0 SDO, SOHO..
The 3rd and 4th is part of polar CH;
Sch - CH Square in Mm**2 (in square megameters) near the central meri-
dian on http://sdowww.lmsal.com/suntoday/; n/d - no data;
R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the 
Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on
the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
FROM 20.07/0011 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAG-
NETIC FIELD. HOWEVER 22/15 - 23/02 UT THE SIGN OF THE FIELD WAS "+". THE 
FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY -/+ THE EARTH HAS TO PASS 27.07.

JULY     18     19     20     21     22     23     24      JULY
Wus     068    058    056    049    036    034    016      
F10.7   107    101    108    100    090    086    082 
bcg   2.4   2.6   2.8   4.1   2.5   4.0   3.5      GOES
Sp      660    720    850    640    580    460    150  msh   
N        1                                          
IMF      +      +     +/-     -     +/-     -      -           
>2  2.9+8 3.4+5 9.7+5 4.0+5 5.1E+5 2.6E+6 3.6+6       GOES
Ie>2   6229   7070   3426                              pfu  GOES 
Ap       3      8      22     4      7      8      15  nT   BOULDER 
Dst                   -26    -10    -18    -22    -19  n   KIOTO 
Amsc     7      8      23     9      13     12     18  nT   IZMIRAN 
--------------------------------------------------------------------
>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or-
bits in days according to GOES15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS BE-
GAN AT 9/1400 UT, AND OBSERVED 9 - 20.06. 

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY 
HIGH LEVEL IS EXPECTED 27 - 31.07.

MODERATE MAGNETIC STORM (G1, Ams= 43, dlit.= 12 h). ACCORDING TO THE 
CENTER IN BOULDER DATA AND MINOR (G1, Ams=43, dur.=12 h). BY IZMIRAN 
DATA IS REGISTERED ON JULY 19 - 20, AS A RESULT OF PASS BY THE EARTH 
OF THE HIGH-SPEED STREAM FROM SOLAR CORONAL HOLE "-" POLARITY OF THE 
SOLAR NORTHERN HEMISPHERE.  THE SECOND MINOR  MAGNETIC STORM HAS BE-
GUN IN THE SECOND HALF 24.07 AND STILL PROCEEDS.  IN OTHER DAYS THE 
GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION CHANGED FROM UNSETTLED TO QUITE.

NEXT WEEK GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS EXPECTED ACTIVE ON JULY, 25 - 26 
AND 28 BECAUSE OF INFLUENCE OF CORONAL HOLES AND FLARE ACTIVITY 22-
24.07. PROBABILITY OF THE MAGNETIC STORM NOT LESS THAN 5%. IN OTHER 
DAYS THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS EXPECTED QUIET AND UNSETTLED.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA               http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, 
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM               http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, 
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA  http://www.izmiran.ru