Home  UP  Research Projects Services Info News Events Personal Archive

Solar Activity Forecast

2016/05/23

      Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
               Highlights on 16 - 22.05.2016,
                 Forecast on 23 - 30.05.2016,
             Carrington Rotation 2177(10,04.05.2016)
  
SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN WAS AT A AVERAGE AND THE LOW LE-
VEL. THE ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE 
SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old)FOR THE PERIOD IS W=
22+24/-13 (W=35+38/-21). 5-2 SUNSPOT GROUPS, ONE BIG SIZE CONSTANT-
LY OBSERVED ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK.  

NEXT WEEK IT IS EXPECTED THE AVERAGE LEVELS OF SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVI-
TY. THE ESTIMATED, THE MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATI-
VE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK 
IS W = 030+20/-10. 

 FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE LOW LEVEL 16, 17 AND 21.05 AND THE VERY LOW 
-IN OTHER DAYS. THERE WERE 4 SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTION OCCURRENCES THRO-
UGH THE PERIOD. ACCORDING TO THE DATA FROM SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS 
> 9 CMEs HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.

----------------------------------------------------------------------
FLARES   to   tm   te   local.     Class   E(1-8A)  AR   RII/IV   CME
                                  X-ray/p  J/m-2
DSF     to      te  Localization   l  .   Fl     A      CME/to
20.05 >0118      >1512     N18W08L210    14
20.05 >0118      >1410     N10W08L210     6
21.05 >1606      >0448     S50W01L214    10
22.05  2028       2212     S07W57L232     7 
----------------------------------------------------------------------
NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON LOW AND THE VERY LOW.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
---------------------------------------------------------------------
  sign   N end   E end   S end  W end    Sch   EE   R G  Space Obser.
CH +   N50L254 N49L234 N10L304 N13L312  60600   16.05 12    SDO, SOHO..
CH +      Pn   N50L209 N18L269 N40L309 206100   18.05       SDO, SOHO..
CH +   N10L270 S10L240 S18L245 N08L272   6900   21.05  1    SDO, SOHO..
CH -   S08L174 S19L149 S21L150 S10L180   ?      25.05  2    SDO, SOHO..
CH -   N30L132 N25L127 N12L127 N28L137   ?      28.05  3    SDO, SOHO..
Sch - CH Square in Mm*2 (in square megameters) near the central meri-
dian on http://sdowww.lmsal.com/suntoday/; n/d - no data;
R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the 
Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on
the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
FROM 14.05/1630 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAG-
NETIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY  +/-  THE EARTH  HAS TO PASS 
27.05.

      16     17     18     19     20     21     22      
Wus     076    036    028    038    043    017    015      
F10.7   102    103    102    099    093    098    097 
bcg   2.8   B2.6   B2.2   1.9   1.8   1.7   1.6      GOES
Sp      760    660    590    530    610    550    480  msh   
N                             1                    
IMF      +      +      +      +      +      +      +           
>2  2.3+7 3.9+7 3.2+7 4.1+7 1.9E+7 1.3E+7 1.7+7       GOES
Ie>2   1269   1372    987   1263    597    612    429  pfu  GOES 
Ap       11     15     9      9      6      18     8   nT   BOULDER 
Dst                                                    n   KIOTO 
Amsc     14     12     9      10     8      18     10  nT   IZMIRAN 
--------------------------------------------------------------------
>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or-
bits in days according to GOES15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS BE-
GINING 16.05/1650 UT AND OBSERVED 16 - 17.05.
THE SECOND INCREASE OF THE STREAM OF RELATIVISTIC ELECTRONS HAS BEGUN 
19.05/1225 UT AND ONLY 19.05 WAS OBSERVED.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY 
HIGH LEVEL IS NOT EXPECTED.

GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS QUIET AND UNSETTLED AND ONLY 18.05 THE SUB-
STORM is NOTED (G1, dur. = 3 h.) ACCORDING TO THE CENTER IN BOULDER 
AND (G0, dur.=9 h). ACCORDING TO THE IZMIRAN DATA - INFLUENCE OF PO-
SITIVE POLARITY TRANS-EQUATORIAL CORONAL HOLE.

 NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS EXPECTED QUIET AND UNSETTLED. 
PASSING BY THE EARTH OF HIGH-SPEED STREAMS OF THE SOLAR WIND FROM CO-
RONAL HOLES OF NEGATIVE POLARITY  CAN CAUSE IN THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD 
25  AND  28.05  THE ACTIVE CONDITION. PROBABILITY OF MAGNETIC STORMS 
LESS THAN 5%. 

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA               http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, 
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM               http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, 
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA  http://www.izmiran.ru