Solar Activity Forecast
2013/06/17
Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 10 - 16.06.2013,
Forecast on 17 - 24.06.2013,
Carrington Rotations 2137, 2138 (15,02.05; 11,23.06.2013)
SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN CHANGED FROM THE LOW 10 - 12.06)
TO THE AVERAGE LEVEL. WEEKLY, THE AVERAGE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE
INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE PERIOD WAS MADE W = 034+31/-26. ON THE
VISIBLE SOLAR DISK CONSTANTLY THERE WERE 1 - 8 SMALL SUNSPOT GROUPS.
NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE AVERAGE
LEVEL. THE CALCULATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF SUNSPOT NUM-
BER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED
W=050+20/-10.
FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE THE LOW LEVEL 13, 15-16.06 AND THE VERY LOW
- IN OTHER DAYS. THERE WAS 1 EJECTION OF SOLAR FILAMENT OBSERVED IN
THIS PERIOD. BY SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS DATA THERE WERE OBSERVED
49 CME FROM WHICH 2 WERE THE TYPE OF "PARTIAL GALO II".
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FLARES to tm te c/p local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME
X / opt. J/m-2
DSF to te c/p local. l in deg. Fl AR CME
12.06 >2223 <1246 N41W01L335 9
c/p local. - central part localization
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NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT THE LOW AND AVERAGE LEVEL.
ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
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sign N end Å end S end W end EE R Observatories
CH ? S24L286 S40L278 S41L278 S30L293 19.06 2 SDO, SOHO..
R - solar rotations; KP - KITT PEAK solar observatory;
EE-date of possible geomag. disturbation in the Earth's environment.
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AFTER 15.06/05 UT EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC
FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY -/+ THE EARTH SHOULD TO PASS 28.06.
JUNE 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 JUNE
Wus 021 014 027 045 073 101 104
F10.7 093 090 093 099 109 111 116
èbcg ÷1.4 ÷1.3 B1.5 B2.2 ÷3.1 ÷3.3 ÷3.6 wt/m-2
Sp 120 050 080 130 410 510 490 m.v.h.
N 1 2 2 3
IMF + + + + + +/- - áóå
Å>2 2.1å+7 2.6E+7 2.4E+7 4.4å+7 5.6å+7 3.2å+7 3.8å+7 GOES
Ie>2 1479 943 554 786 998 885 737 GOES
Ap 14 7 3 4 3 4 3 nT áÒ
Dst nT ëIïôï
Amsc 12 13 11 9 9 8 9 nT IZMIRAN
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Å>2 - a fluence in (electrons/cm2-day-sr) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of a flux of electrons in geostationary
orbits in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events
> 1000 p.f.u.
THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH
LEVEL WAS OBSERVED 10.06.
THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH
LEVEL IS NOT EXPECTED.
THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION REMAINED UNSETTLED AND QUITE.
NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS EXPECTED UNSETTLED AND QUIET.
HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA
OF NOAA SWPC http://www.sec.noaa.gov,
OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER -
SIDC, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3,
OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru
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