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Solar Activity Forecast

2017/02/20

      Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
                Highlights on 13 - 19.02.2017,
                 Forecast on 20 - 27.02.2017,
            Carrington Rotation 2187 (6,73.02.2017)
           Earth above the ecliptic (-6.7, -6,9) deg. 
               (S33-N23 is geoeffectiveness zone)

 SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY WAS REMAINED ON A LOW AND VERY LOW LEVELS. 
THE ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUN-
SPOT NUMBER  IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old)  FOR THE PERIOD IS W 
= 11+3/-3 (Wn= 17+5/-5). ON THE VISIBLE DISC OF THE SUN 1 - 2 SMALL 
QUITE SUNSPOT GROUP HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. 

NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY  IS EXPECTED  AT THE LOW AND MIDD- 
LE LEVELS. THE ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RE-
LATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT 
WEEK IS W=020+20/-10. 

 FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE VERY LOW LEVEL. FIVE SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTI-
ONS OCCURRENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD.  ACCORDING TO THE SOHO AND STEREO 
CORONOGRAPHS DATA >5 CMEs HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
FLARES   to   tm   te   local.     Class   E(1-8A)  AR   RII/IV   CME
                                  X-ray/p  J/m-2
DSF     to     te      l  . Fl     A        CME/to
15.02  >1517  >0742  N08W09L260       6                     
17.02   0028  1630  *N07E37L187       6                     
17.02  >0901 >2306   S08W56L280       8   
18.02  >1159 >0635  *N07E08L203       8 
19.02   0511  0539  *N14E02L196      11                    CME/0648
19.02  >1710 >1458   S56E13L185       7 
* one and same system of filaments
----------------------------------------------------------------------
NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT A VERY LOW AND LOW LEVELS BUT, 
ALSO FLARES OF MIDDLE CLASS IN NEW ACTIVE REGION LEAVING EAST LIMB ARE 
POSSIBLE. 

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
---------------------------------------------------------------------
  sign   N end   E end   S end  W end    Sch    EE   R G   Space Obser.
H  -  S00L295 S15L245  S30L275 S08L296  5700 15.02  2 G0  SDO, SOHO..
H  +  N10L170 S05L167  S25L183 N20L198       22.02  5 G1  SDO, SOHO..
Sch - CH Square in Mm**2 (in square megameters) near the central meri-
dian on http://sdowww.lmsal.com/suntoday/; n/d - no data;
R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the 
Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on
the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition.
------------------------------------------------------------------------

FROM 13.02/10 UT THE EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNE-
TIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY  +/- THE EARTH HAS EXPECTED TO 
PASS 27.02.

FEBRUARY 13     14     15     16     17     18     19    FEBRUARY
Wus     016    015    023    023    014    013    023 
F10.7   075    075    075    074    075    077    078 
bcg   6.3   6.2   5.9   5.7   A7.6   1.0   B1.4      GOES
Sp      060    050    030    010    020    020    030   msh   
N                      1                           1
IMF     -/+     +      +      +      +      +      +          
>2  1.2+8 6.8+7 3.9E+7 8.4E+6 3.8E+6 6.1+6  2.0+7     GOES
Ie>2   4518   1877   1016   1005    215    242    778   pfu 
Ap       5      2      3      12     21     12     11   n BOULDER 
Dst                          -24    -37    -27    -26   n KIOTO 
Amsc     7      2      5      11     20     15     13   n IZMIRAN 
------------------------------------------------------------------
>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or-
bits in days according to GOES15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS BE-
GINING AT 01.02/1240 UT AND OBSERVED 1 - 16.02.   

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY 
HIGH LEVEL IS EXPECTED 20 - 22.02.

 THE MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G1, Ams = 29, dur. = 12 h). ACCORDING TO 
IZMIRAN DATA AND (G0, Ams = 25, dur.=15 h). ACCORDING TO THE CENTER 
IN BOULDER DATA IS REGISTERED 17 - 18.02  IN RESPONSE TO PASSING BY 
THE EARTH  OF THE SOLAR WIND HIGH-SPEED STREAM FROM CORONAL HOLE "+" 
POLARITY ON THE SOUTHERN SOLAR HEMISPHERE. IN OTHER DAYS THE GEOMAG-
NETIC CONDITION WAS UNSETTLED AND QUIET.

NEXT WEEK GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED UNSETTLED AND QUITE.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA               http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, 
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM               http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, 
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA  http://www.izmiran.ru