Pushkov Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere and Radio Wave Propagation
Russian Academy of Sciences
( founded in 1939 )
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Solar Activity Forecast

2019/02/10

      Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
              Highlights on 04 - 09.02.2019,
              Forecast on 10 - 18.02.2019,
         Carrington Rotation 2213 (16,83.01.2019)
            Earth out of ecliptic (-6.2 - -6.5) deg. 
             (S30 - N20 is zone of geoeffectiveness)

THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS AT THE VERY LOW LEVEL: THE
SUN WAS SPOTLESS (24 SPOTLESS DAYS AT 2019). ESTIMATED, MOST LIKE-
LY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER  IN THE IN-
TERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD W=000 (Wn=000). ON THE VISIDLE
SOLAR DISC ON N30W06 6.02 APPEARED SPOTLESS STRUCTURE WITH THE RU-
LE POLARITY OF 25th SOLAR CYCLE (13 EVENT FROM 2016).

 NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY  WILL REMAIN  AT VERY LOW 
LEVEL. LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE  OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER 
IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W=010+10/-10. 

 THE FLARE ACTIVITY WAS ON THE VERY LOW LEVEL,  BUT THREE CLASS A1 
FLARES MARKED IN DIFFERENT PLACES OF THE EASTERN HEMISPHERE. NO FI-
LAMENT EJECTION AND 3 CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES
        to   tm    te   local.    Class   E(1-8A)  AR   RII/IV CME
                                X-ray/p   J/m-2
DSF     to      te  localization   l  .  Fl    AR    CME/to
--------------------------------------------------------------------

NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW LEVELS.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
  sign N end   E end   S end   W end    Sch    EE   R   G  Space Obser. 
CH -   S15L171 S22L188 S38L156 S25L148 6.8%   7.02 R1  -  SDO, SOHO...
CH -   S10L093 S30L101 S35L093 S25L103 1.7%   8.02 R2  -  SDO, SOHO...
Both CHs are "friable", with characteristics that do not give them the 
opportunity to be geoeffective;
Sch - CH Square in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on 
https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; 
EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. 
G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. 
A-active geomagnetic condition.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------

 AFTER 30.01/0155 UT EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAG-
NETIC FIELD. NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY -/+ THE EARTH MUST PASS 21.02.2019.
--------------------------------------------------------------------- 
FEBRUARY 04     05     06     07     08     09    FEBRUARY
Wus     000    000    000    000    000    000   
F10.7   071    071    070    070    071    070     
bcg  <1.0  <1.0  <1.0  <1.0  <1.0  <1.0    GOES
Sp      000    000    000    000    000    000    msh   
N                                              
IMF      -      -      -      -      -      -     DSCOVR   
>2  5.2E+8 9.9E+7 8.2E+7 1.5+8 8.9+7 8.5E+7    GOES
Ie>2  13540  18016   2385   3630   3797   3750    pfu 
Ap       7      4      10     4      9      10    n  
Dst                                               n KIOTO
Amsc     10     7      9      6      9      11    n IZMIRAN 
-------------------------------------------------------------------
>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or-
bits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.

 THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BEGAN 
01.02/2230 UT AND 2-3.02 HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.  
 
NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS OR-
BIT IS EXPECTED 10 - 12.02.

THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION AT MIDDLE LATITUDES REMAINED QUIET AND UN-
SETTLED. 

 THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITITON IS EXPECTED QUITE AND UNSETTLED.
 
HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA               http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, 
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM               http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, 
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA  http://www.izmiran.ru
                                                          V. Ishkov