Solar Activity Forecast
2019/10/14
Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 07 - 13.10.2019,
Forecast on 14 - 21.10.2019,
Carrington Rotation 2022, 2223 (19,16.09; 16,44.10.2019)
Earth out of ecliptic (6.6 - 6.3) deg.
(S20 - N30 is zone of geoeffectiveness)
THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED VERY LOW WITH A SPOT
LESS VISIBLE DISK ALL DAYS (202 SPOTLESS DAYS IN THE YEAR). ESTI-
MATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT
NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD W =0 (Wn= 0).
NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY WAS ON VERY LOW LEVEL. LI-
KELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE
INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W=010+10/-10.
FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE VERY LOW LEVEL. ONE SOLAR FILAMENT EJEC-
TION AND ONE CORONAL MASS EJECTION (13.09) HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.
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FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES
to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME
X-ray/Ïp J/m-2
DSF to te localization l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl AR CME/to
10.10 >1454 >0615 N46E30L100 14
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NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW LEVEL.
ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
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sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Space Obser.
CH + N20L134 N17L143 S02L137 N03L132 1.9% 9.10 1 SDO, SOHO...
Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on
https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations;
EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment.
G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes.
A-active geomagnetic condition.
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23.09/09 UT THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELD SIGN IS UNSTABLE, BUT IN
THE AVERAGE ARE REMAINED "+". THE NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY THE EARTH MUST TO
PASS 24.10.
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OCTOBER 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 OCTOBER
Wus 000 000 000 000 000 000 000
F10.7 068 067 068 068 069 068 067
èbcg á2.1 á2.1 á2.3 á2.5 A2.7 A2.2 á3.4 GOES
Sp 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 msh
N
IMF + + + + + + + DSCOVR
Å>2 7.1E+7 2.0E+7 2.0E+7 1.3E+7 2.0E+7 3.3E+7 4.4å+7 GOES
Ie>2 1927 492 4598 518 514 740 898 pfu
Ap 6 5 9 13 8 5 2 nô
Dst nô KIOTO
Amsc 9 6 7 4 11 10 1 nô IZMIRAN
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Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or-
bits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.
THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BEGUN
AT 28.09/1310 UT AND 28.09-07.10 HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.
NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS OR-
BIT IS NOT EXPECTED.
THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION REMAINED QUIET AND UNSETTLED.
NEXT WEEK THE MOST PROBABLY QUIET AND UNSETTLED GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION.
HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE,
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3,
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru
V. Ishkov
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