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Solar Activity Forecast

2016/06/27

      Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
               Highlights on 20 - 26.06.2016,
              Forecast on 27.06 - 04.07.2016,
           Carrington Rotation 2178 (06,25.06.2016)
  
SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN CHANGED AT THE AVERAGE TO THE VE-
RY LOW LEVELS. THE ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE 
RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE PE-
RIOD IS W=07+14/-7 (Wn= 10+24/-10). ON THE SOLAR VISIBLE DISK 3 - 0 
QUIET SUNSPOT GROUPS WERE CONSTANTLY OBSERVED.

 NEXT WEEK IT IS EXPECTED THE VERY LOW AND THE LOW LEVELS OF SUNSPOT-
FORMING ACTIVITY. THE ESTIMATED,  MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF 
THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE 
NEXT WEEK IS W = 020+10/-20. 

FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE VERY LOW. THERE WERE TWO SOLAR FILAMENT EJEC-
CTION OCCURRENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD.  ACCORDING TO THE DATA FROM SOHO  
AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS > 10 CMEs, THREE (20/1636, 21/0400, 25/0248 UT 
-backside event) WAS TYPE II (angular width>90 deg.)HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.

----------------------------------------------------------------------
FLARES   to   tm   te   local.     Class   E(1-8A)  AR   RII/IV   CME
                                  X-ray/p  J/m-2
DSF     to      te  Localization   l  .   Fl     A      CME/to
21.06  2054         2236   N03W36L200      14
22.06  0526         1402   N44E47L103      26                    
----------------------------------------------------------------------
NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON THE VERY LOW AND LOW LEVELS.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
---------------------------------------------------------------------
  sign   N end   E end   S end  W end    Sch   EE   R G  Space Obser.
CH -   S10L191 S30L165 S31L183 S20L205  28200 21.06   2  G0 SDO, SOHO..
CH -   N12L180 N08L175 S01L185 N05L190        22.06   2  -  SDO, SOHO..
CH -   N15L278 S18L238 S20L248 S05L291        24.06   2  -  SDO, SOHO..
CH +   N30L103 N29L103 N05L110 N15L111   7800 30.06   1     SDO, SOHO..
CH -   N80L068 S18L040 S21L043 N07L070        02.07   4  G2 SDO, SOHO..
Sch - CH Square in Mm*2 (in square megameters) near the central meri-
dian on http://sdowww.lmsal.com/suntoday/; n/d - no data;
R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the 
Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on
the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
FROM 22.06/05 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAG-
NETIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY -/+ THE EARTH  HAS TO PASS 
8 - 9.07.

JUNE     20     21     22     23     24     25     26      JUNE
Wus     035    022    022    000    000    000    000      
F10.7   084    080    078    078    076    077    077 
bcg   A8.4   A8.6   A8.0   A8.2   A8.3   A9.3   7.7      GOES
Sp      310    200    160    000    000    000    000  msh   
N                                                   
IMF      +      +     +/-     -      -      -      -           
>2  4.6+7 5.4+7 4.1+7 3.2+6 1.5E+6 6.0E+7 6.8+7       GOES
Ie>2    942   1030   1181    135          1926   3009  pfu  GOES 
Ap       3      3      14     11     11     7      12  nT   BOULDER 
Dst                                                    n   KIOTO 
Amsc     4      7      11     10     15     13     13  nT   IZMIRAN 
--------------------------------------------------------------------
>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or-
bits in days according to GOES15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS DE-
GAN AT 21/1649 AND 25/1325 UT, AND OBSERVED 21 - 22 AND 25 - 26.06. 

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY 
HIGH LEVEL IS EXPECTED 27.06 - 02.07.

 GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS QUIET AND UNSETTLED ALL DAYS. 

NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS EXPECTED QUIET AND UNSETTLED 
BEFORE 02.07 WHEN THE EARTH WILL PASS THE RECURRENT THE SOLAR TRANS-
EQUATORIAL CORONAL HOLE HIGH-SPEED STREAM OF THE SOLAR WIND. PROBA-
BILITY OF VAGNETIC STORM IS VORE 40%.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA               http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, 
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM               http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, 
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA  http://www.izmiran.ru