Pushkov Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere and Radio Wave Propagation
Russian Academy of Sciences
( founded in 1939 )
Home  UP  Research Projects Services Info News Events Personal Archive

Solar Activity Forecast

2019/04/22

      Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
                Highlights on 15 - 21.04.2019,
                 Forecast on 22 - 29.04.2019,
         Carrington Rotation 2216 (08,8.04.2019)    
          Earth out of ecliptic (-6.6 - -6.2) deg. 
          (S30 - N20 is zone of geoeffectiveness)

 THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY  WAS AT THE LOW AND VERY LOW LE-
VELS BUT 21.04 THE SUN BECAME SPOTLESS (63 DAYS ON 2019)) ESTIMATED, 
MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER  IN 
THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD  W= 8+6/-1 (Wn= 12+11/-2). 
ON THE SOLAR VISIBLE DISC  TWO QUITE SUNSPOT GROUP - 1 SMALL  AND 1 
MIDDLE SIZE IN WHICH AFTER 14.02 THERE WAS ONE UNIPOLAR SUNSPOT, AND 
19.02 IT LEFT BEHIND THE WESTERN LIMB WHERE IT BECAME MORE ACTIVE
AND 20-22.04 ON THE LIMB IN PLACE OF IN LOCALIZATION TO REGISTRED 
THE II TYPE RADIO BURSTS AND CME.

NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY  WILL AT VERY LOW LEVEL AND
AFTER 23.04  THE SUN WILL SPOTLESS. LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE  OF 
THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER  IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old)  FOR 
THE NEXT WEEK IS W=010+1/-10. 

FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE VERY LOW LEVELS. NO FILAMENT EJECTION AND 
SIX CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS (17-20.04) HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. 
-------------------------------------------------------------------
FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES
        to   tm    te   local.    Class   E(1-8A)  AR   RII/IV CME
                                X-ray/p   J/m-2
DSF     to     te  localization   l  .  Fl    AR    CME/to
--------------------------------------------------------------------

NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT LOW AND MIDDLE LEVELS.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
 sign N end   E end   S end   W end    Sch    EE   R   G  Space Obser.
 -  N10L235 S10L234 S40L202 S20L182 <13.4  23.04 8   -  ACE SOHO...
Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on 
https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; 
EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. 
G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. 
A-active geomagnetic condition.
----------------------------------------------------------------------

 AFTER 20.04/12 UT EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNE-
TIC FIELD. NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY +/- THE EARTH MUST PASS 27.04.
---------------------------------------------------------------------- 
PRIL    15     16     17     18     19     20     21   PRIL
Wus     011    011    024    023    024    011    000
F10.7   075    074    076    075    073    070    069
bcg  <1.0  <1.0  <1.0  <1.0   8.2   8.1   7.2  GOES
Sp      300    330    410    280    270    010    000  msh   
N                      1                            
IMF      -      -      -      -      -     -/+     +   DSCOVR   
>2  5.6E+7 1.8E+7 2.6E+7 2.3+7 1.7+7 7.8E+6 7.7+6  GOES
Ie>2   4149   1770    733    733    538    406    221  pfu 
Ap       8      6      3      2      4      3      4   n  
Dst                                                    n KIOTO
Amsc     9      6      5      3      4      4      3   n IZMIRAN 
--------------------------------------------------------------------
>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or-
bits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BEGAN 
5.04/1400 UT AND 8 - 17.04 HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.   
 
NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX  AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS OR-
BIT IS NOT EXPECTED.

 GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION AT MEDIUM LATITUDES UP REMAINS QUIET AND UNSET-
TLED.

NEXT PERIOD THE MOST PROBABLE QUIET AND UNSETTLEDED GEOMAGNETIC CONDI-
TION IS EXPECTED. CORONAL HOLE TOO "FRIABLE" THAT TO GIVE A SUBSTANTI-
VE GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE, ALTHOUGH THE AURORA WILL BE OBSERVED.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA               http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, 
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM               http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, 
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA  http://www.izmiran.ru
                                                          V. Ishkov