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Solar Activity Forecast

2016/11/27

     Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
                 Highlights on 21 - 26.11 2016,
                   Forecast on 27.11 - 04.12.2016,
               Carrington Rotation 2184 (16,74.11.2016)
          Earth above the ecliptic +(2.10 - 1,48) deg. 
                  (S28-N32 is geoeffectiveness zone)

SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY REMAINED AT A VERY LOW LEVEL AND 21 WAS SPOT-
LESS DAY. THE ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELA-
TIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old)  FOR THE PERIOD 
IS W= 006+3/-6 (Wn= 10+2/-10).  ON THE VISIBLE DISK OF THE SUN  0 - 1 
QUITE SUNSPOT GROUP. 

 NEXT WEEK IT IS EXPECTED THE VERY LOW AND, POSIBILITY, THE LOW LEVELS. 
THE ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT 
NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W=020+10/
-10. 

 FLARE ACTIVITY  WAS AT THE VERY LOW LEVEL. THERE WERE 3 SOLAR FILAMENT 
EJECTIONS OCCURRENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. ACCORDING TO THE SOHO AND STE-
REO CORONOGRAPHS DATA >5 CMEs.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
FLARES   to   tm   te   local.     Class   E(1-8A)  AR   RII/IV   CME
                                  X-ray/p  J/m-2
DSF     to        te      l  . Fl     A   CME/to
20.11  0753   0820   N14W66L022       5         12610
22.11 >1318  >0643   N09E48L242       7
24.11 >1008  >2229   N15W60L324       5 
----------------------------------------------------------------------
NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW AND LOW LEVELS. 

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
---------------------------------------------------------------------
  sign   N end   E end   S end  W end    Sch   EE   R G  Space Obser.
CH  +  N08L311 S05L282  S22L301 N05L314         24.11  8 1  SDO, SOHO..
CH  +     Pn            N40L281                             SDO, SOHO..
CH  +  N58L284 N45L254  N20L306 N35L326  88700  23.11  8 1  SDO, SOHO..
CH  +  S12L260 S15L245  S30L268 S25L275         27.11  1    SDO, SOHO..
The first three CH perhaps make one polar;
Sch - CH Square in Mm**2 (in square megameters) near the central meri-
dian on http://sdowww.lmsal.com/suntoday/; n/d - no data;
R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the 
Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on
the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition.
------------------------------------------------------------------------

 FROM 20.11/07 UT  THE EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNE-
TIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY +/- THE EARTH HAS TO PASS 4.11.

NOVEMBER   21     22     23     24     25      26     NOVEMBER
Wus       000    011    011    012    012     013        
F10.7     075    077    078    079    081     081   
bcg     A7.1   A9.2   A8.7    A9.8   A9.1   9.3     GOES
Sp        000    120    120    180    230     160     
N                 1                               
IMF        +      +      +      +      +       +         
>2    3.8+7 4.4+6 8.6+6  9.5E+6  2.7E+8           GOES
Ie>2     1664    567    330     541   5557  25245  pfu 
Ap         7      11     9       26     39     11   BOULDER 
Dst                     -21     -34    -39    -24   KIOTO 
Amsc       7      18     13      29     27     12   IZMIRAN 
------------------------------------------------------------------
>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or-
bits in days according to GOES15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS BE-
GINING 13.11/0950 UT  AND OBSERVED 13 - 21.11. NEXT INCREASE WAS BE-
GINING 25.11/0955 UT AND OBSERVED 26.11/

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY 
HIGH LEVEL IS EXPECTED 23 - 29.11.

 GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION 22-23.11 WAS ACTIVE, AND ON BORDER OF THESE 
DAYS BY DATA OF IZMIRAN SUBSTORM (G1, dur. 6 h.)  WAS MARKED,  AND 
BY DATA OF THE CENTER IN BOULDER THIS SUBSTORM WAS (G1), dur. 6 h. 
24 - 25.11 EXTENDED MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G2, Ams= 34, dur.= 36 h.) 
ACCORDING TO THE CENTER IN BOULDER,  AND (G2, Ams= 31, dur.= 33 h.) 
ACCORDING TO IZMIRAN DATA IS REGISTERED.  THESE GEOMAGNETIC DISTUR-
BANCES ARE CONNECTED WITH PASSING BY EARTH THROUGH HIGH-SPEED STREAM 
OF CORONAL HOLE FAMILY CONNECTED WITH POLAR CH "+" POLARITY.

GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONON NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED ACTIVE AND UNSETTLED.
THE PROBABILITY OF MAGNETIC STORMS LOW. 

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA               http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, 
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM               http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, 
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA  http://www.izmiran.ru