Solar Activity Forecast
2012/05/14
Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 07 - 13.05.2012,
Forecast on 14 - 21.05.2012,
CARRINGTON ROTATION 2123 (28,19.04.2012)
SUNSPOT ACTIVITY OF THE SUN ON LAST WEEK REMAINED AT THE AVERAGE LEVEL.
ESTIMATED, RATING, WEEKLY THE AVERAGE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNA-
TIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE PERIOD WAS MADE W=057+26/-10. ON THE VISIBLE DISK
OF THE SUN CONSTANTLY THERE WERE 4 - 7 SUNSPOT GROUPS ONE OF WHICH WAS
THE LARGE SIZE:
AR11476(N09L188, Sp max.=1050 m.v.h., delta, í/11, LARGE-1) - APPEARANCE
FROM E-LIMB IN COMPLETE DEVELOPMENT ON MAY 4. MAIN FLARE POWER ALLOCATI-
ON 9-10.05 (32 h.).
NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE AVERAGE. THE
CALCULATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE IN-
TERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK W=060+10/-20.
FLARE ACTIVITY AT 10.05 WAS ON THE HIGH LEVEL, 1-9.05 - ON THE MIDDLE AND
THE LOW IN OTHER DAYS. BY DATA OF SOHO CORONOGRAPHS FOR THE PERIOD IT WAS
OBSERVED 12 CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS BUT NO DATA ON 4-7 AND 9-10.05.
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FLARES to tm te c/p local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME
X / opt. J/m-2
06.05 0112 0118 >0120 n09å70L188 M1.1/ 2.3E-3 11476
06.05 1741 1747 1826 N10E64L188 M1.3/1N 4.4E-3 11476
07.05 1403 1431 1539 S19W46L279 M1.9/1N 3.5E-2 11471 IV/1
08.05 1302 1308 1320 N13E44L188 M1.4/1F 4.5E-3 11476
09.05 1221 1232 1317 N13E31L188 M4.7/1N 1.5E-2 11476
09.05 1402 1308 1441 N06E22L188 M1.8/1B 7.0E-3 11476
09.05 2101 2105 >2109 n10e21L188 M4.1/ 1.5E-2 11476
10.05 0411 0418 0501 N13E22L188 M5.7/2B 2.1E-2 11476 IV/1
10.05 2020 2026 >2030 n10e21L188 M1.7/ 5.6E-3 11476
DSF to te c/p local. l in deg. Fl AR CME
c/p local. - central part localization
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NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON LOW AND AVERAGE LEVELS.
ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK DURING THE LAST WEEK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL
HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
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sign N end Å end S end W end EE R Observatories
CH - N45L197 N35L195 S30L218 S15L235 09.05 4 KP, SDO, SOHO...
CH + S11L175 S21L170 S27L175 S12L177 13.05 1 KP, SDO, SOHO...
CH + N50L129 N48L127 N26L154 N38L157 15.05 1 KP, SDO, SOHO...
R - solar rotations; KP - KITT PEAK solar observatory;
EE-date of possible geomag. disturbation in the Earth's environment.
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AFTER 08.05/04 UT THE EARTH WAS IN "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY
MAGNETIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDERY - /+ THE EARTH SHOULD
PASS 17.05.
MAY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 MAY
Wus 079 090 079 093 102 085 138
F10.7 122 123 127 131 136 130 131
èbcg B5.9 ÷3.5 B4.1 ÷6.5 ÷6.1 ÷4.9 ÷4.2 GOES
Sp 1050 1160 1320 1320 1280 1190 1110
Nnew 1 1 2 4
IMF + +/- - - - - - ACE
Å>2 1.7å+7 1.4E+7 3.3E+6 4.7å+7 1.4å+8 3.7å+8 1.3å+8 GOES
Nm% THULE
Ap 4 9 23 14 13 10 12 áÒ
Dst ëIOTO
Amsc 6 15 27 11 14 13 13 IZMIRAN
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THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY
HIGH LEVEL OF FLUX WAS OBSERVED FROM 10.05/1455 UT 10 - 13.05.
.
THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT HIGH LEVEL IS EXPECTED ON
MAY, 14-15.
LAST WEEK CONDITIONS OF THE MINOR MAGNETIC STORM ARE NOTED SINCE
THE END OF DAY 8.05 (G1, Ams=27, dur.=27 h.) ACCORDING TO IZMIRAN
DATA AND (G0, Ams=23, dur.=27 h.) ACCORDING TO THE CENTER OF SPA-
CE WEATHER IN BOULDER. THIS MAGNETIC STORM WAS A CONSEQUENCE OF
PASSING BY EARTH OF THE SOLAR WIND HIGH-SPEED STREAM FROM HUGE CO-
RONAL HOLE STRETCHED ON THE SOLAR VISIBLE DISK FROM N45 TO S30.
IN OTHER DAYS THE GEOMAGNETIC SITUATION WAS UNSETTLED AND QUIET.
NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED UNSETTLED AND QUIET.
HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA
OF NOAA SWPC http://www.sec.noaa.gov,
OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER -
SIDC, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3,
OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru
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