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Solar Activity Forecast

2016/09/24

     Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
               Highlights on 19 - 23.09 2016,
              Forecast on 24.09 - 02.10.2016,
  Carrington Rotation 2181, 2182 (26,89.08; 23,15.09.2016)
            Earth above the ecliptic + 7.05 deg. 
             (S20-N30 geoeffectiveness zone)
  
 SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY REMAINED  AT AN AVERAGE LEVEL. THE 
ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUN-
SPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE PERIOD IS 
W = 024+10/-6 (Wn = 038+4/-11).  ON THE VISIBLE DISK OF THE SUN 
4-3 SMALL SUNSPOT GROUP WERE CONSTANTLY OBSERVED ON THE VISIBLE 
SOLAR DISK. 

NEXT WEEK IT IS EXPECTED THE AVERAGE AND THE LOW LEVELS. THE ES-
TIMATED,  MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE  SUN-
SPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK 
IS W=020+10/-10. 

FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE LOW LEVEL 21 -22.09 AND THE VERY LOW 
IN OTHER DAYS. THERE WAS ONLY ONE SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTIONS OC-
CURRENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. ACCORDING TO THE SOHO AND STEREO 
CORONOGRAPHS DATA > 11 CMEs HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.

----------------------------------------------------------------------
FLARES   to   tm   te   local.     Class   E(1-8A)  AR   RII/IV   CME
                                  X-ray/p  J/m-2
DSF     to        te      l  . Fl     A   CME/to
19.09 >0051  >1316   N47E10L        4 
----------------------------------------------------------------------
NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW AND LOW LEVELS. 

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
---------------------------------------------------------------------
  sign   N end   E end   S end  W end    Sch   EE   R G  Space Obser.
CH  +  N09L013 S05L009 S10L011 S07L018   4200 25.09 4 G1 SDO, SOHO..
CH  +  N60L274 N45L252 N12L322 N25L342 275700 28.09 3 G0 SDO, SOHO..
CH  +  N03L310 S05L282 S15L292 S23L322        01.10 6 G0 SDO, SOHO..
Second CH is part of polar CH;
Sch - CH Square in Mm**2 (in square megameters) near the central meri-
dian on http://sdowww.lmsal.com/suntoday/; n/d - no data;
R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the 
Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on
the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition.
------------------------------------------------------------------------

FROM 15.09/20 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAG- 
NETIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY -/+ THE EARTH HAS TO PASS 
25.09.

SEPTEMBER 19     20     21     22     23      SEPTEMBER
Wus      056    032    035    030    049      
F10.7    083    085    086    085    086  
bcg    B1.2   B1.5   B2.0   B1.6   B1.2       GOES
Sp       100    170    170    100    130   msh   
N         1                           1  
IMF       -      -      -      -      -            
>2   1.2+6 1.6+6 4.5+7 2.4+7 2.3E+7        GOES
Ie>2                  1366   1014    516   pfu  GOES 
Ap        10     21     10     3      4    nT  BOULDER 
Dst      -30    -36    -21                 n   KIOTO 
Amsc      11     16     10     4      4    nT   IZMIRAN 
------------------------------------------------------------------
>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or-
bits in days according to GOES15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS BE-
GINING 21/1430 UT AND OBSERVED 21 - 22.09. 

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY 
HIGH LEVEL IS EXPECTED  26.09 - 02.10.

 GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION CHANGED FROM QUITE to ACTIVE. MINOR MAGNETIC 
STORM (G1, Ams= 32, dur.= 12 h.) ACCORDING TO THE CENTRE IN BOULDER 
REGISTERED IN THE FIRST HALF DAYS 20.09. ACCORDING IZMIRAN DATA THIS 
DAY MARKED ONLY ACTIVE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION.

NEXT WEEK  25.09 EARTH WILL BE PASSED INTO THE HIGH-SPEED STREAM OF 
THE SOLAR WIND FROM THE TRANSEQUATORIAL CORONAL HOLE AND WILL CROSS 
SECTOR BOUNDER -/+. STRENGTHENING OF GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE TO THE 
MINOR LEVEL TO THE MAGNETIC STORM IS POSSIBLE (~ 30%). USETTLED TO
ACTIVE ARE LIKELY ON 26.09 DUE TO THE ONSET OF A RECCURENT, TRANS-
EQUATORIAL, POSITIVE POLARITY CH HSS ENHANCING THE NEAR-EARTH SPACE 
ENVIRONEVENT. AFTER WHICH UNTIL THE END OF THE PERIOD THE UNSETTLED 
GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WILL BE ESTABLISHED.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA               http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, 
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM               http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, 
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA  http://www.izmiran.ru