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Solar Activity Forecast

2017/06/19

      Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
               Highlights on 12 - 18.06.2017,
                 Forecast on 19 - 26.06.2017,
            Carrington Rotation 2191, 2192 (26,85.05; 23,05.06.2017)
           Earth above the ecliptic (-0,7; -0,1) deg. 
              (S35 - N25 is geoeffectiveness zone)

 SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY WAS ON THE VERY LOW AND LOW LEVEL. 12.06 
WAS SPOTLESS DAYS (42 IN CURRENT YEAR). THE ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY 
WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNA-
TIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE PERIOD IS W= 011+6/-11 (Wn= 018+9/-18).  
ON THE VISIBLE DISC OF THE SUN 0- 2 SMALL SUNSPOT GROUPS HAVE BEEN 
OBSERVED. 

 NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY  IS EXPECTED AT THE LOW AND VE-
RY LOW LEVELS. THE ESTIMATED,  MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF 
THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER  IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR 
THE NEXT WEEK IS W = 10+20/-10.

 FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE VERY LOW LEVEL.  TWO SOLAR FILAMENT EJEC-
TIONS OCCURRENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. ACCORDING TO THE SOHO AND STE-
REO CORONOGRAPHS DATA >21 CMEs HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
FLARES to   tm    te   local.     Class   E(1-8A)  AR   RII/IV   CME
                                 X-ray/p  J/m-2
DSF     to     te      l  . Fl     A        CME/to
14.06 >0142  >1236   S01E32L086       11
17.06 <1239  <1358   N10E15L052       10  
---------------------------------------------------------------------

NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BEAT THE LOW AND VERY LOW LEVEL.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
---------------------------------------------------------------------
  sign   N end   E end   S end  W end    Sch    EE   R  G   Space Obser.
  -  N08L109 S20L094  S25L104 S00L119 32600 16.06 11 G0 SDO, SOHO...
  -  N32L095 N25L080  S00L092 N28L103 15500 17.06 11 G0 SDO, SOHO...
  -  S18L090 S20L084  S40L090 S30L098       17.06 11 G0 SDO, SOHO...
  +     Pn   N22L003  N18L015 N30L043       23.06 (2)   SDO, SOHO...
All CH are the family CH of south polar CH; the bay of polar CH - R2;
Sch - CH Square in Mm**2 (in square megameters) near the central meri-
dian on http://sdowww.lmsal.com/suntoday/; n/d - no data;
R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the 
Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on
the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition.
------------------------------------------------------------------------

 16.06/0500 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY 
MAGNETIC FIELD. NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY -/+ EARTH SHOULD BE PASSED 
0N 26.06.

JUNE    12     13     14     15     16     17     18      JUNE
Wus    000    011    011    028    028    028    027
F10.7  075    075    074    077    074    075    075
bcg  A7.2   A6.2   A6.3   7.0   A5.5   A5.6   A5.9      GOES
Sp     000    170    160    150    140    170    060  msh   
N                                     
IMF     +      +      +      +     +/-      -     -      DSCOVR   
>2 8.8+5 2.0E+6 3.7E+6 5.6+6 1.0+6 1.5+7 2.2+7      GOES
Ie>2                        113           663    808   pfu 
Ap      8      7      8      3      24     16     10   n  
Dst                                                    n KIOTO
Amsc    10     7      7      4      21     16     11   n IZMIRAN 
------------------------------------------------------------------
>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or-
bits in days according to GOES15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT NO OB-
SERVED.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY 
HIGH LEVEL IS EXPECTED 19 - 26.06.

MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G1, Ams=30, .=24) ACCORDING BOULDER CENTER
DATA  AND (G0, Ams= 28, .= 18) ACCORDING IZMIRAN's DATA OBSERVED 
16 -17.06 WHEN EARTH HIGH-SPEED STREAM OF SOLAR WIND FROM FAMILLY CO-
RONAL HOLES  OF SOUTH POLAR CORONAL HOLE HAVE PASSED.  IN OTHER DAYS 
GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS QUIET AND UNSETTLED.

 ON THE NEXT WEEK THE QUIET AND UNSETTLED GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION BE EX-
PECTED.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA               http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, 
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM               http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, 
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA  http://www.izmiran.ru
                                                          V. Ishkov