Solar Activity Forecast
2018/12/10
Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 03 - 10.12.2018,
Forecast on 11 - 18.12.2018,
Carrington Rotation 2211 (23,17.11.2018)
Earth out of ecliptic (+4.82- +4.60) deg.
(S24 - N26 is zone of geoeffectiveness)
THE SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN WAS AT THE VERY LOW AND LOW
LEVEL, THE SUN WAS SPOTLESS 3-4.12 (203 SPOTLESS DAYS AT 2018). ES-
TIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT
NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD W=006+4/-6 (Wn=
010+6/-10). ON THE SOLAR DISK ONE SUNSPOT GROUP HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.
NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY WILL STAY AT A VERY LOW LE-
VEL. LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN
THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W= 010+10/-10.
THE FLARE ACTIVITY WAS ON THE VERY LOW LEVEL. ONE FILAMENT EJECTI-
ON AND ONE CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.
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FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES
to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME
X-ray/Ïp J/m-2
DSF to te localization l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl AR CME/to
05.12 >1444 >1132 N34E38L226 5
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NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW LEVELS.
ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
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sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Space Obser.
Sch - CH Square in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on
https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations;
EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment.
G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes.
A-active geomagnetic condition.
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AFTER 8.12/21 UT EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNE-
TIC FIELD. NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY -/+ THE EARTH MUST PASS 12.12.
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DECEMBER 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 DECEMBER
Wus 000 000 016 017 016 012 012
F10.7 068 069 071 070 070 069 072
èbcg <á1.0 <á1.0 á1.9 á1.9 á1.7 á2.3 á4.6 GOES
Sp 000 000 030 050 050 010 010 msh
N
IMF + + + + + +/- - DSCOVR
Å>2 7.7E+5 1.9E+6 2.0E+6 3.9å+6 3.6å+6 1.3E+7 1.2E+7 GOES
Ie>2 pfu
Ap 11 8 5 5 10 10 11 nô
Dst nô KIOTO
Amsc 10 10 4 5 11 9 10 nô IZMIRAN
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Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or-
bits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.
THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT HAVE
NOT BEEN OBSERVED.
NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS
ORBIT IS NOT EXPECTED .
THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION REMAINED UNSETTLED AND QUITE.
THE NEXT WEEK IS MOST PROBABILITY OF QUIET AND UNSETTLED GEOMAGNE-
TIC CONDITION.
HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE,
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3,
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru
V. Ishkov
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