Solar Activity Forecast
2019/12/09
Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 02 - 08.12.2019,
Forecast on 09 - 16.12.2019,
Carrington Rotation 2224, 2225 (12,74.10 - 10,05.12.2019)
Earth out of ecliptic (3.1 - 2.6) deg.
(S25 - N25 is zone of geoeffectiveness)
THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED VERY LOW WITH A SPOT-
LESS VISIBLE DISK (262 SPOTLESS DAYS IN THE YEAR - 76%). ESTIMATED,
MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN
THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD W=0 (Wn=0).
NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY WAS ON VERY LOW LEVEL. LI-
KELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE
INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W=010+10/-10.
FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE VERY LOW LEVEL. ONE SOLAR FILAMENT EJEC-
TION AND ONE CORONAL MASS EJECTION (03.12) HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.
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FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES
to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME
X-ray/Ïp J/m-2
DSF to te localization l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl AR CME/to
06.12 1419 1743 S11W49L354 7
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NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW LEVEL.
ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
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sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Spacecraft
CH - N18L122 N00L137 S12L127 N08L104 4.2% 02.12 1 - SDO, SOHO...
Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on
https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations;
EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment.
G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes.
A-active geomagnetic condition.
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IN THE FOLLOWING WEEKS THE BEHAVIOR OF THE SECTOR SIGN NOT CHANGED, BUT
TO GIVE A FORECAST BY EARTH'S PASSAGE OF CONFIDENT SECTOR BOUNDARY IS NOT
POSSIBLE (DEEP PHASE OF MINIMUM!).
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NOVEMBER 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 DECEMBER
Wus 000 000 000 000 000 000 000
F10.7 070 071 070 071 070 070 072
èbcg A7.8 A7.8 A7.8 A7.8 A7.8 á7.8 A7.8 GOES
Sp 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 msh
N
IMF + + + +/- - - - DSCOVR
Å>2 1.3E+7 1.3E+7 8.3E+6 4.9E+6 5.7E+6 5.3E+6 6.8E+6 GOES
Ie>2 249 216 191 122 134 104 157 pfu
Ap 2 2 3 3 4 2 3 nô
Dst nô KIOTO
Amsc 2 2 4 2 3 3 4 nô IZMIRAN
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Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or-
bits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.
THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT HAVE
NOT BEEN OBSERVED.
NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS
ORBIT IS NOT EXPECTED.
THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION AT MIDDLE LATITUDES REMAINS UNSETTLED
AND QUIET ALL DAYS.
NEXT WEEK THE MOST PROBABLY QUIET AND WEAKLY GROUNDED GEOMAGNETIC
CONDITION.
HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE,
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3,
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru
V. Ishkov
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