Pushkov Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere and Radio Wave Propagation
Russian Academy of Sciences
( founded in 1939 )
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Solar Activity Forecast

2019/12/09

      Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
               Highlights on  02 - 08.12.2019,
                 Forecast on 09 - 16.12.2019,
   Carrington Rotation 2224, 2225 (12,74.10 - 10,05.12.2019)   
             Earth out of ecliptic (3.1 - 2.6) deg. 
            (S25 - N25 is zone of geoeffectiveness)

 THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED VERY LOW WITH A SPOT-
LESS VISIBLE DISK (262 SPOTLESS DAYS IN THE YEAR - 76%). ESTIMATED,  
MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN 
THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD W=0 (Wn=0). 

NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY WAS ON VERY LOW LEVEL. LI-
KELY  WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER  IN THE 
INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W=010+10/-10. 

 FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE VERY LOW LEVEL. ONE SOLAR FILAMENT EJEC-
TION AND ONE CORONAL MASS EJECTION (03.12) HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.
 
-------------------------------------------------------------------
FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES
        to   tm    te   local.    Class   E(1-8A)  AR   RII/IV CME
                                X-ray/p   J/m-2
DSF     to      te  localization   l  .  Fl    AR    CME/to
06.12  1419   1743 S11W49L354        7 
--------------------------------------------------------------------

NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW LEVEL.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
---------------------------------------------------------------------
 sign  N end   E end   S end   W end   Sch    EE    R  G  Spacecraft
CH -  N18L122 N00L137 S12L127 N08L104  4.2% 02.12   1  -  SDO, SOHO...
Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on 
https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; 
EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. 
G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. 
A-active geomagnetic condition. 
----------------------------------------------------------------------

 IN THE FOLLOWING WEEKS THE BEHAVIOR OF THE SECTOR SIGN NOT CHANGED,  BUT
TO GIVE A FORECAST BY EARTH'S PASSAGE OF CONFIDENT SECTOR BOUNDARY IS NOT  
POSSIBLE (DEEP PHASE OF MINIMUM!).
----------------------------------------------------------------------- 
NOVEMBER 02     03     04     05     06     07     08   DECEMBER
Wus     000    000    000    000    000    000    000
F10.7   070    071    070    071    070    070    072 
bcg   A7.8   A7.8   A7.8   A7.8   A7.8   7.8   A7.8   GOES
Sp      000    000    000    000    000    000    000   msh   
N                                                 
IMF      +      +      +     +/-     -      -      -    DSCOVR   
>2  1.3E+7 1.3E+7 8.3E+6 4.9E+6 5.7E+6 5.3E+6 6.8E+6   GOES
Ie>2    249    216    191    122    134    104    157   pfu 
Ap       2      2      3      3      4      2      3    n  
Dst                                                     n KIOTO
Amsc     2      2      4      2      3      3      4    n IZMIRAN 
-------------------------------------------------------------------------            
>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or-
bits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT HAVE 
NOT BEEN OBSERVED. 
 
NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS 
ORBIT IS NOT EXPECTED.

 THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION AT MIDDLE LATITUDES  REMAINS  UNSETTLED 
AND QUIET ALL DAYS.

 NEXT WEEK THE MOST PROBABLY QUIET  AND WEAKLY GROUNDED GEOMAGNETIC 
CONDITION.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA               http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, 
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM               http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, 
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA  http://www.izmiran.ru
                                                          V. Ishkov