Solar Activity Forecast
2019/08/19
Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 12 - 18.08.2019,
Forecast on 19 - 26.08.2019,
Carrington Rotation 2020, 2021 (26,7.07; 22,9.2019)
Earth out of ecliptic (2.2 - 2.5) deg.
(S24 - N26 is zone of geoeffectiveness)
THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED VERY LOW WITH A
SPOTLESS VISIBLE DISK (156 SPOTLESS DAYS IN THE YEAR). ESTI-
MATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUN-
SPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD W=0
(Wn = 0).
NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY WAS ON VERY LOW LE-
VEL. LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUM-
BER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W=
010+20/-10.
FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE VERY LOW LEVEL. THREE CORONAL MASS
EJECTIONS (12. 13.08) HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.
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FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES
to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME
X-ray/Ïp J/m-2
DSF to te localization l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl AR CME/to
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NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW LEVEL.
ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
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sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Space Obser.
Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on
https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations;
EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment.
G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes.
A-active geomagnetic condition.
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SOLAR WIND PARAMETERS REFLECTED A NOMINAL SOLAR WIND ENVIRONEMENT.
AFTER 04.08/0855 UT THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELD SIGN IS UNSTAB-
LE AND OFTEN CHANGES, BUT IN THE MIDDLE ARE REMAINED WITH THE "+". THE
NEXT SECTOR THE EARTH HAS TO PASS 25.08.
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AUGUST 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 AUGUST
Wus 012 011 000 000 000 000 000
F10.7 067 067 067 067 068 068 068
èbcg á6.2 á6.1 á6.2 á6.2 A6.0 A6.0 á5.9 GOES
Sp 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 msh
N
IMF + + + + + + + DSCOVR
Å>2 2.0E+8 2.0E+8 2.2E+8 2.4E+8 1.3E+8 6.8E+7 3.2å+7 GOES
Ie>2 5159 5336 4786 5234 4200 1670 1362 pfu
Ap 5 6 4 4 5 4 6 nô
Dst nô KIOTO
Amsc 5 8 4 4 5 4 6 nô IZMIRAN
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Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or-
bits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.
THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BEGUN
AT 6.08/1015 UT AND 6-18.08 HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.
NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS OR-
BIT IS NOT EXPECTED.
THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION AT MIDDLE LATITUDES REMAINED QUIET AND UN-
SETTLED.
NEXT WEEK THE MOST PROBABLY QUIET AND UNSETTLED GEOMAGNETIC CONDITI-
ON WILL OBSERVED .
HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE,
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3,
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru
V. Ishkov
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