Solar Activity Forecast
2018/10/15
Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 08 - 14.10.2018,
Forecast on 15 - 22.10.2018,
Carrington Rotation 2209(29,6.09.2018)
Earth out of ecliptic (+6.49 - +6.25) deg.
(S17 - N28 is zone of geoeffectiveness)
THE SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN HAVE REMAINED AT THE VERY
LOW AND AFTER 11.10 ON THE SUN APPEARS SUNSPOT (SPOTLESS -164 DAYS
IN THIS YEAR). ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE
RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERI-
OD W= 005+8/-5 (Wn= 008+13/-8). TWO SMALL SUNSPOT GROUP ON VISIBLE
SOLAR DISC HAVE BEEN OBSERVED IN SOUTH HEMISPHERE HOW COMPLEX OF
ACTIVE REGIONS.
NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY WILL STAY AT A VERY LOW LE-
VEL. LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN
THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W= 010+10/-10.
THE FLARE ACTIVITY WAS ON THE VERY LOW LEVEL. ONE SOLAR FILAMENTS
AND NO CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.
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FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES
to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME
X-ray/Ïp J/m-2
DSF to te localization l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl AR CME/to
13.10 1327 1341 S12E60L235 6 2724
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NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW LEVELS.
ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
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sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Space Obser.
Sch - CH Square in Mm**2 (in square megameters) near the central meri-
dian on http://sdowww.lmsal.com/suntoday/; n/d - no data;
R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the
Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on
the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
AFTER 23.09/13 UT EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNE-
TIC FIELD, BUT THE SIGN OF THE SECTOR IS VERY UNSTABLE. NEXT STABLE
SECTOR BOUNDARY +/- THE EARTH MUST PASS 27.10.
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ïëôñâòø 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 ïëôñâòø
Wus 000 000 000 000 011 022 022
F10.7 069 070 070 071 072 072 072
èbcg <á1.0 <á1.0 <á1.0 <á1.0 <á1.0 <á1.0 <á1.0 GOES
Sp 000 000 000 000 020 020 020 msh
N 1 1
IMF + + + + + + + DSCOVR
Å>2 2.4E+8 1.0E+9 8.9E+8 1.1å+9 1.8å+9 8.7E+8 5.6å+6 GOES
Ie>2 10717 39176 31178 35910 36880 35256 343 pfu
Ap 21 17 18 9 5 4 6 nô
Dst nô KIOTO
Amsc 22 19 18 11 6 11 6 nô IZMIRAN
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Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or-
bits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.
THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BEGUN
8.10/1345 UT AND 8 - 13.10 HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.
NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS
ORBIT IS NOT EXPECTED.
GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY REACHED THE LEVEL OF MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G1,
Ams=38, dur. =27 h.) ACCORDING OF BOULDER CENTER DATA AND (G1, Ams
=43, dur.=12 Þ.) AT 7-8.10 DUE TO HIGH-SPEED STREAM OF SOLAR WIND
FROM LARGE CANYON-SHAPED CORONAL HOLE (+) POLARITY. 9-10.10 THE LE-
VEL OF GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY REMAIND ACTIVE. THE OTHER DAYS GEOMAG-
NETIC CONDITION WAS QUITE AND UNSETTLED
THE NEXT WEEK IS MOST PROBABILITY OF QUIET AND UNSETTLED GEOMAGNE-
TIC CONDITION.
HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE,
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3,
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru
V. Ishkov
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