Solar Activity Forecast
2017/06/19
Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 12 - 18.06.2017,
Forecast on 19 - 26.06.2017,
Carrington Rotation 2191, 2192 (26,85.05; 23,05.06.2017)
Earth above the ecliptic (-0,7; -0,1) deg.
(S35 - N25 is geoeffectiveness zone)
SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY WAS ON THE VERY LOW AND LOW LEVEL. 12.06
WAS SPOTLESS DAYS (42 IN CURRENT YEAR). THE ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY
WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNA-
TIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE PERIOD IS W= 011+6/-11 (Wn= 018+9/-18).
ON THE VISIBLE DISC OF THE SUN 0- 2 SMALL SUNSPOT GROUPS HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED.
NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT THE LOW AND VE-
RY LOW LEVELS. THE ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF
THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR
THE NEXT WEEK IS W = 10+20/-10.
FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE VERY LOW LEVEL. TWO SOLAR FILAMENT EJEC-
TIONS OCCURRENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. ACCORDING TO THE SOHO AND STE-
REO CORONOGRAPHS DATA >21 CMEs HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.
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FLARES to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME
X-ray/Ïp J/m-2
DSF to te ËÏÏÒÄÉÎÁÔÙ l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl Aï CME/to
14.06 >0142 >1236 S01E32L086 11
17.06 <1239 <1358 N10E15L052 10
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NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BEAT THE LOW AND VERY LOW LEVEL.
ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
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sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Space Obser.
óî - N08L109 S20L094 S25L104 S00L119 32600 16.06 11 G0 SDO, SOHO...
óî - N32L095 N25L080 S00L092 N28L103 15500 17.06 11 G0 SDO, SOHO...
óî - S18L090 S20L084 S40L090 S30L098 17.06 11 G0 SDO, SOHO...
óî + Pn N22L003 N18L015 N30L043 23.06 (2) SDO, SOHO...
All CH are the family CH of south polar CH; the bay of polar CH - R2;
Sch - CH Square in Mm**2 (in square megameters) near the central meri-
dian on http://sdowww.lmsal.com/suntoday/; n/d - no data;
R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the
Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on
the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition.
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16.06/0500 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY
MAGNETIC FIELD. NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY -/+ EARTH SHOULD BE PASSED
0N 26.06.
JUNE 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 JUNE
Wus 000 011 011 028 028 028 027
F10.7 075 075 074 077 074 075 075
èbcg A7.2 A6.2 A6.3 á7.0 A5.5 A5.6 A5.9 GOES
Sp 000 170 160 150 140 170 060 msh
N
IMF + + + + +/- - - DSCOVR
Å>2 8.8å+5 2.0E+6 3.7E+6 5.6å+6 1.0å+6 1.5å+7 2.2å+7 GOES
Ie>2 113 663 808 pfu
Ap 8 7 8 3 24 16 10 nô
Dst nô KIOTO
Amsc 10 7 7 4 21 16 11 nô IZMIRAN
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Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or-
bits in days according to GOES15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.
THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT NO OB-
SERVED.
THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY
HIGH LEVEL IS EXPECTED 19 - 26.06.
MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G1, Ams=30, ÄÌÉÔ.=24) ACCORDING BOULDER CENTER
DATA AND (G0, Ams= 28, ÄÌÉÔ.= 18) ACCORDING IZMIRAN's DATA OBSERVED
16 -17.06 WHEN EARTH HIGH-SPEED STREAM OF SOLAR WIND FROM FAMILLY CO-
RONAL HOLES OF SOUTH POLAR CORONAL HOLE HAVE PASSED. IN OTHER DAYS
GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS QUIET AND UNSETTLED.
ON THE NEXT WEEK THE QUIET AND UNSETTLED GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION BE EX-
PECTED.
HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE,
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3,
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru
V. Ishkov
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