Pushkov Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere and Radio Wave Propagation
Russian Academy of Sciences
( founded in 1939 )
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Solar Activity Forecast

2018/10/15

      Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
                 Highlights on 08 - 14.10.2018,
                  Forecast on 15 - 22.10.2018,
             Carrington Rotation 2209(29,6.09.2018)
            Earth out of ecliptic (+6.49 - +6.25) deg. 
             (S17 - N28 is zone of geoeffectiveness)

 THE SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN HAVE REMAINED AT THE VERY 
LOW AND AFTER 11.10 ON THE SUN APPEARS SUNSPOT (SPOTLESS -164 DAYS 
IN THIS YEAR). ESTIMATED,  MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE 
RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERI-
OD W= 005+8/-5 (Wn= 008+13/-8). TWO SMALL SUNSPOT GROUP ON VISIBLE 
SOLAR DISC  HAVE BEEN OBSERVED  IN SOUTH HEMISPHERE HOW COMPLEX OF 
ACTIVE REGIONS. 

NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY WILL STAY AT A VERY LOW LE-
VEL. LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN 
THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W= 010+10/-10. 

 THE FLARE ACTIVITY WAS ON THE VERY LOW LEVEL. ONE SOLAR FILAMENTS 
AND NO CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES
        to   tm    te   local.    Class   E(1-8A)  AR   RII/IV CME
                                X-ray/p   J/m-2
DSF     to      te  localization   l  .  Fl    AR    CME/to
13.10  1327   1341  S12E60L235      6             2724
-------------------------------------------------------------------------

NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW LEVELS.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
------------------------------------------------------------------------
  sign   N end   E end   S end  W end    Sch    EE   R  G  Space Obser.
Sch - CH Square in Mm**2 (in square megameters) near the central meri-
dian on http://sdowww.lmsal.com/suntoday/; n/d - no data;
R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the 
Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on
the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition.
------------------------------------------------------------------------

 AFTER 23.09/13 UT EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNE-
TIC FIELD,  BUT THE SIGN OF THE SECTOR  IS VERY UNSTABLE. NEXT STABLE 
SECTOR BOUNDARY  +/- THE EARTH MUST PASS 27.10. 
--------------------------------------------------------------------- 
  08     09     10     11     12     13     14   
Wus     000    000    000    000    011    022    022 
F10.7   069    070    070    071    072    072    072
bcg  <1.0  <1.0  <1.0  <1.0  <1.0  <1.0  <1.0   GOES
Sp      000    000    000    000    020    020    020   msh   
N                                    1      1 
IMF      +      +      +      +      +      +      +    DSCOVR   
>2  2.4E+8 1.0E+9 8.9E+8 1.1+9 1.8+9 8.7E+8 5.6+6   GOES
Ie>2  10717  39176  31178  35910  36880  35256    343   pfu 
Ap       21     17     18     9      5      4      6    n  
Dst                                                    n KIOTO
Amsc     22     19     18     11     6      11     6    n IZMIRAN 
------------------------------------------------------------------
>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or-
bits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.

 THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BEGUN
8.10/1345 UT AND 8 - 13.10 HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.  
 
 NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS 
ORBIT IS NOT EXPECTED.

GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY REACHED THE LEVEL OF MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G1, 
Ams=38, dur. =27 h.) ACCORDING OF BOULDER CENTER DATA AND (G1, Ams
=43, dur.=12 .) AT 7-8.10 DUE TO HIGH-SPEED STREAM OF SOLAR WIND 
FROM LARGE CANYON-SHAPED CORONAL HOLE (+) POLARITY. 9-10.10 THE LE-
VEL OF GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY REMAIND ACTIVE.  THE OTHER DAYS GEOMAG-
NETIC CONDITION WAS QUITE AND UNSETTLED

 THE NEXT WEEK IS MOST PROBABILITY OF QUIET AND UNSETTLED GEOMAGNE-
TIC CONDITION.
 
HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA               http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, 
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM               http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, 
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA  http://www.izmiran.ru
                                                          V. Ishkov