Pushkov Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere and Radio Wave Propagation
Russian Academy of Sciences
( founded in 1939 )
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Solar Activity Forecast

2019/08/19

      Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
               Highlights on 12 - 18.08.2019,
                 Forecast on 19 - 26.08.2019,
     Carrington Rotation 2020, 2021 (26,7.07; 22,9.2019)   
            Earth out of ecliptic (2.2 - 2.5) deg. 
           (S24 - N26 is zone of geoeffectiveness)

 THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED VERY LOW WITH A
SPOTLESS VISIBLE DISK (156 SPOTLESS DAYS IN THE YEAR). ESTI-
MATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUN-
SPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD W=0
(Wn = 0).  

 NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY  WAS ON VERY LOW LE-
VEL. LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUM-
BER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W=
010+20/-10. 

FLARE ACTIVITY  WAS AT THE VERY LOW LEVEL. THREE CORONAL MASS 
EJECTIONS (12. 13.08) HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. 
-------------------------------------------------------------------
FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES
        to   tm    te   local.    Class   E(1-8A)  AR   RII/IV CME
                                X-ray/p   J/m-2
DSF     to       te  localization   l  .  Fl    AR    CME/to
--------------------------------------------------------------------

NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW LEVEL.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
 sign  N end   E end   S end   W end    Sch    EE   R   G  Space Obser.
Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on 
https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; 
EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. 
G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. 
A-active geomagnetic condition. 
----------------------------------------------------------------------

SOLAR WIND PARAMETERS REFLECTED A NOMINAL SOLAR WIND ENVIRONEMENT.

 AFTER 04.08/0855 UT THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELD SIGN IS UNSTAB-
LE AND OFTEN CHANGES, BUT IN THE MIDDLE ARE REMAINED WITH THE "+". THE 
NEXT SECTOR THE EARTH HAS TO PASS 25.08.
----------------------------------------------------------------------- 
AUGUST   12     13     14     15     16     17     18    AUGUST
Wus     012    011    000    000    000    000    000 
F10.7   067    067    067    067    068    068    068 
bcg   6.2   6.1   6.2   6.2   A6.0   A6.0   5.9    GOES
Sp      000    000    000    000    000    000    000    msh   
N                                 
IMF      +      +      +      +      +     +       +     DSCOVR   
>2  2.0E+8 2.0E+8 2.2E+8 2.4E+8 1.3E+8 6.8E+7 3.2+7    GOES
Ie>2   5159   5336   4786   5234   4200   1670   1362    pfu 
Ap       5      6      4      4      5      4      6     n  
Dst                                                      n KIOTO
Amsc     5      8      4      4      5      4      6     n IZMIRAN 
-------------------------------------------------------------------------            
>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or-
bits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BEGUN 
AT 6.08/1015 UT AND 6-18.08 HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. 
 
NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS OR-
BIT IS NOT EXPECTED.

THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION AT MIDDLE LATITUDES REMAINED QUIET AND UN-
SETTLED.

NEXT WEEK THE MOST PROBABLY QUIET AND UNSETTLED GEOMAGNETIC CONDITI-
ON WILL OBSERVED .

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA               http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, 
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM               http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, 
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA  http://www.izmiran.ru
                                                          V. Ishkov