Pushkov Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere and Radio Wave Propagation
Russian Academy of Sciences
( founded in 1939 )
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Solar Activity Forecast

2018/06/25

      Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
                 Highlights on 18 - 24.06.2018,
                 Forecast on 25.06 - 02.07.2018,
            Carrington Rotation 2004 (16,45.05.2018)
            Earth out of ecliptic (-0.2 - +0.2) deg. 
            (S25 - N25 is zone of geoeffectiveness)

THE SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN WAS ON THE MIDDLE LE- 
VEL. THE ESTIMATED,  MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE 
RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR 
THE PERIOD W= 022+010/-010 (Wn=035 +017/-020). ON THE VISIBLE 
DISC OF THE SUN, 1 SMALL SUNSPOT GROUPS.

NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY WILL BE ON THE LOW AND 
VERY LOW LEVELS.  LIKELY  WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE 
SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old)  FOR THE NEXT 
WEEK IS W=010+10/-10. 

 THE FLARE ACTIVITY WAS ON THE VERY LOW LEVEL.  3 CORONAL MASS 
 EJECTIONS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.
------------------------------------------------------------------
FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES
        to   tm    te   local.    Class   E(1-8A)  AR   RII/IV CME
                                X-ray/p   J/m-2
DSF     to      te  localization   l  .  Fl    AR    CME/to
------------------------------------------------------------------
NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW LEVELS.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
---------------------------------------------------------------------
  sign   N end   E end   S end  W end    Sch    EE    R  G  Space Obser.
CH  -  S08L168 S20L317  S40L189 S15L156       26.06  R3    SOHO, STEREO..
Sch - CH Square in Mm**2 (in square megameters) near the central meri-
dian on http://sdowww.lmsal.com/suntoday/; n/d - no data;
R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the 
Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on
the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition.
------------------------------------------------------------------------

 AFTER 17.06/1250 UT EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF INTERPLANETARY MAG-
NETIC FIELD. NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY +/- THE EARTH MUST PASS 29.06.

JUNE    18     19     20     21     22     23     24   JUNE
Wus    028    041    054    041    041    034    016 
F10.7  074    077    082    082    070    077    075 
bcg  2.3   3.5   5.1    8.1  8.5   A9.3   1.0  GOES
Sp     020    080    180    190    180    190    100  msh   
N       1                               
IMF     +      +      +      +      +      +      +   DSCOVR   
>2 1.6E+6 5.1E+6 6.5+6 8.1E+6 1.0+7 9.9+5 3.3E+7  GOES
Ie>2   564    212   215     206    263    277   1132  pfu 
Ap      22     5      7      3      3      17     8    n  
Dst                                                    n KIOTO
Amsc    16     6      6      4      5      20     8    n IZMIRAN 
--------------------------------------------------------------------
>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or-
bits in days according to GOES15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BEGIN- 
NING AT 24/1800 UT AND HAVE OBSERVED 24.06.  
 
 NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS 
ORBIT IS EXPECTED AFTER 29.06.

 THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS ACTIVE 18 AND 23.06. DUE TO EFFECTS 
ASSOCIATED WITH MINOR DISTURBANCES IN THE SOLAR WIND FIELD. MINOR 
MAGNETIC STORM (G0, Ams = 22, dur.= 15 h.) WAS OBSERVED ACCORDING 
IZMIRAN DATA IN SECOND HALF DAY 23.06, BUT THE CENTER IN BOULDER 
NOTED SUBSTORM ONLY IN THIS TIME. IN OTHER DAYS GEOMAGNETIC CONDI-
TION WAS QUITE.

 THE NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS EXPECTED TO BE PRIMA-
RILY QUITE AND UNSETTLED, BUT WITH ACTIVE PERIODS ON 26-27.06, 
DUE TO INFLUENCES FROM CH HSS+.
 
HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA               http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, 
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM               http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, 
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA  http://www.izmiran.ru
                                                          V. Ishkov