Solar Activity Forecast
2017/10/16
Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 02 - 08.10.2017,
Forecast on 09 - 16.10.2017,
Carrington Rotation 2195; 2196 (12,73.09; 10.01.10.2017)
Earth above the ecliptic (6.7 - 6,2) deg.
(S25 - N35 is geoeffectiveness zone)
SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY WAS ON THE VERY LOW LEVEL (SPOTLESS DAYS-
63 IN CURRENT YEAR). THE ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VA-
LUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM
(old) FOR THE PERIOD W= 002+0/-2 (Wn= 002+010/-2). ON THE VISIBLE
SOLAR DISK ONE SMALL SUNSPOT GROUP HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.
NEXT WEEK LEVEL OF SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ON VERY
LOW LEVEL. MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUN-
SPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS
W=010+10/-10.
FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE VERY LOW LEVEL. THERE WERE TWO SOLAR FI-
LAMENT EJECTIONS OCCURRENCES ON THIS PERIOD. ACCORDING TO THE DATA
FROM SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS > 14 CME, ONE - TYPE II (angular
with 90-180 deg.) HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.
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FLARES to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME
X-ray/Ïp J/m-2
DSF to te ËÏÏÒÄÉÎÁÔÙ l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl Aï CME/to
12.10 0959 1410 S46E13L307 10
14.10 >1246 >0834 S47W03L297 8
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NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY WILL BE AT THE VERY LOW LEVEL.
ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
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sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Space Obser.
CH + N33L017 N43L312 N27L012 N30L027 11.09 6 G1 SDO, SOHO...
CH + N28L022 N20L017 N15L029 N18L032 10.09 3 G1 SDO, SOHO...
CH + N55L281 N25L276 N20L281 N30L289 18.10 1 SDO, SOHO...
CH - N05L218 S20L233 S31L243 S15L253 21.10 5 G0 SDO, SOHO...
Sch - CH Square in Mm**2 (in square megameters) near the central meri-
dian on http://sdowww.lmsal.com/suntoday/; n/d - no data;
R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the
Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on
the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition.
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10.10/08 UT THE EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNE-
TIC FIELD. NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY +/- EARTH SHOULD BE PASSED 0N 30.10.
OCTOBER 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 OCTOBER
Wus 000 000 000 000 000 000 012
F10.7 072 071 070 070 070 069 070
èbcg á7.7 á2.1 A1.1 A1.4 A0.0 A1.8 A2.5 GOES
Sp 000 000 000 000 000 000 010 msh
N
IMF -/+ + + + + + + DSCOVR
Å>2 2.0+7 2.4å+7 1.7E+6 5.4å+7 1.1å+8 7.6å+8 1.1å+9 GOES
Ie>2 394 534 252 2482 4987 32632 59298 pfu
Ap 3 3 31 31 43 32 28 nô
Dst nô KIOTO
Amsc 4 4 27 25 34 28 21 nô IZMIRAN
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Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or-
bits in days according to GOES15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.
THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT HAS BE-
GIN 12.10/1350 UT AND 12 - 15.10 HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.
NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS OR-
BIT IS EXPECTED 16 - 23.10.
LONG SMALL MAGNETIC STORM (G2, Ams = 35, dur. = 51 h.) ACCORDING TO
THE CENTER IN BOULDER DATA AND TWO MINOR (G1, Ams = 28, dur. = 15 h.)
AND (G0, Ams =27, dur. = 18 h) ACCORDING TO IZMIRAN DATA ARE NOTED 11
-12.10, AND ALREADY 13 - 15.09 ACCORDING TO THE CENTER IN BOULDER THE
FOLLOWING MAGNETIC STORM IS REGISTERED (G2, Ams=47, dur.= 33 h) WHICH
BY DATA IZMIRAN HAS INCLUDED TWO STORMS: MODERATED (G2, Ams=51, dur.=
15 h). AND MINOR (G1, Ams=31, dur.= 18 h). ON OCTOBER 15 ACCORDING TO
THE CENTER IN BOULDER DATA THE FOLLOWING SMALL MAGNETIC STORM IS NOTED
(G1, Ams=32, dur. =18 h). IN IZMIRAN DATA WERE NOTED ONLY SEPARATE SUB-
STORMS. IN OTHER DAYS THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS QUIET.
NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WILL BE UNSETTLED AND QUIET ALL
DAYS, EXCEPT 18 - 19.10, WHEN THE EARTH PASSES THE HIGH-SPEED STREAM
FROM THE FAMILY OF CORONAL HOLES "+" POLARITY ON NORTHEN HEMISPHERE.
PROBABILITY OF THE MAGNETIC STORM ~ 60%.
HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE,
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3,
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru
V. Ishkov
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