Pushkov Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere and Radio Wave Propagation
Russian Academy of Sciences
( founded in 1939 )
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Solar Activity Forecast

2019/10/14

      Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
               Highlights on 07 - 13.10.2019,
                 Forecast on 14 - 21.10.2019,
   Carrington Rotation 2022, 2223 (19,16.09; 16,44.10.2019)   
             Earth out of ecliptic (6.6 - 6.3) deg. 
            (S20 - N30 is zone of geoeffectiveness)

THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED VERY LOW WITH A SPOT
LESS VISIBLE DISK ALL DAYS (202 SPOTLESS DAYS IN THE YEAR). ESTI-
MATED,  MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT 
NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD W =0 (Wn= 0).  

NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY WAS ON VERY LOW LEVEL. LI-
KELY  WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER  IN THE 
INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W=010+10/-10. 

FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE VERY LOW LEVEL. ONE SOLAR FILAMENT EJEC-
TION AND ONE CORONAL MASS EJECTION (13.09) HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. 
-------------------------------------------------------------------
FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES
        to   tm    te   local.    Class   E(1-8A)  AR   RII/IV CME
                                X-ray/p   J/m-2
DSF     to      te  localization   l  .  Fl    AR    CME/to
10.10  >1454  >0615 N46E30L100       14 
--------------------------------------------------------------------

NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW LEVEL.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
---------------------------------------------------------------------
 sign  N end   E end   S end   W end   Sch    EE    R G  Space Obser.
CH +  N20L134 N17L143 S02L137 N03L132  1.9%  9.10   1    SDO, SOHO...
Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on 
https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; 
EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. 
G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. 
A-active geomagnetic condition. 
----------------------------------------------------------------------

 23.09/09 UT THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELD SIGN IS UNSTABLE, BUT IN 
THE AVERAGE ARE REMAINED "+". THE NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY THE EARTH MUST TO 
PASS 24.10.
------------------------------------------------------------------- 
OCTOBER  07     08     09     10     11     12     13   OCTOBER
Wus     000    000    000    000    000    000    000
F10.7   068    067    068    068    069    068    067 
bcg   2.1   2.1   2.3   2.5   A2.7   A2.2   3.4   GOES
Sp      000    000    000    000    000    000    000   msh   
N                                                   
IMF      +      +      +      +      +      +      +    DSCOVR   
>2  7.1E+7 2.0E+7 2.0E+7 1.3E+7 2.0E+7 3.3E+7 4.4+7   GOES
Ie>2   1927    492    4598    518   514    740    898   pfu 
Ap       6      5       9      13    8      5      2    n  
Dst                                                     n KIOTO
Amsc     9      6       7     4      11    10      1    n IZMIRAN 
---------------------------------------------------------------------            
>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or-
bits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BEGUN 
AT 28.09/1310 UT AND 28.09-07.10 HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. 
 
NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS OR-
BIT IS NOT EXPECTED.

THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION REMAINED QUIET AND UNSETTLED.

NEXT WEEK THE MOST PROBABLY QUIET AND UNSETTLED GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA               http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, 
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM               http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, 
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA  http://www.izmiran.ru
                                                          V. Ishkov