Solar Activity Forecast
2018/06/25
Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 18 - 24.06.2018,
Forecast on 25.06 - 02.07.2018,
Carrington Rotation 2004 (16,45.05.2018)
Earth out of ecliptic (-0.2 - +0.2) deg.
(S25 - N25 is zone of geoeffectiveness)
THE SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN WAS ON THE MIDDLE LE-
VEL. THE ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE
RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR
THE PERIOD W= 022+010/-010 (Wn=035 +017/-020). ON THE VISIBLE
DISC OF THE SUN, 1 SMALL SUNSPOT GROUPS.
NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY WILL BE ON THE LOW AND
VERY LOW LEVELS. LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE
SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT
WEEK IS W=010+10/-10.
THE FLARE ACTIVITY WAS ON THE VERY LOW LEVEL. 3 CORONAL MASS
EJECTIONS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.
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FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES
to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME
X-ray/Ïp J/m-2
DSF to te localization l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl AR CME/to
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NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW LEVELS.
ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
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sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Space Obser.
CH - S08L168 S20L317 S40L189 S15L156 26.06 R3 SOHO, STEREO..
Sch - CH Square in Mm**2 (in square megameters) near the central meri-
dian on http://sdowww.lmsal.com/suntoday/; n/d - no data;
R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the
Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on
the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition.
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AFTER 17.06/1250 UT EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF INTERPLANETARY MAG-
NETIC FIELD. NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY +/- THE EARTH MUST PASS 29.06.
JUNE 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 JUNE
Wus 028 041 054 041 041 034 016
F10.7 074 077 082 082 070 077 075
èbcg á2.3 á3.5 á5.1 á8.1 á8.5 A9.3 ÷1.0 GOES
Sp 020 080 180 190 180 190 100 msh
N 1
IMF + + + + + + + DSCOVR
Å>2 1.6E+6 5.1E+6 6.5å+6 8.1E+6 1.0å+7 9.9å+5 3.3E+7 GOES
Ie>2 564 212 215 206 263 277 1132 pfu
Ap 22 5 7 3 3 17 8 nô
Dst nô KIOTO
Amsc 16 6 6 4 5 20 8 nô IZMIRAN
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Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or-
bits in days according to GOES15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.
THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BEGIN-
NING AT 24/1800 UT AND HAVE OBSERVED 24.06.
NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS
ORBIT IS EXPECTED AFTER 29.06.
THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS ACTIVE 18 AND 23.06. DUE TO EFFECTS
ASSOCIATED WITH MINOR DISTURBANCES IN THE SOLAR WIND FIELD. MINOR
MAGNETIC STORM (G0, Ams = 22, dur.= 15 h.) WAS OBSERVED ACCORDING
IZMIRAN DATA IN SECOND HALF DAY 23.06, BUT THE CENTER IN BOULDER
NOTED SUBSTORM ONLY IN THIS TIME. IN OTHER DAYS GEOMAGNETIC CONDI-
TION WAS QUITE.
THE NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS EXPECTED TO BE PRIMA-
RILY QUITE AND UNSETTLED, BUT WITH ACTIVE PERIODS ON 26-27.06,
DUE TO INFLUENCES FROM CH HSS+.
HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE,
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3,
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru
V. Ishkov
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