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Solar Activity Forecast

2017/05/22

      Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
                 Highlights on 15 - 21.05.2017,
                 Forecast on 22 - 29.05.2017,
   Carrington Rotation 2190, 2191 (29,63.04; 26,85.05.2017)
           Earth above the ecliptic (-2,6, -2,0) deg. 
               (S34 - N26 is geoeffectiveness zone)

 SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY WAS ON LOW LEVEL ALL DAYS BUT 15.05 WERE 
SPOTLESS DAYS (37th DAY ON CURRENT YEAR). THE ESTIMATED, MOST LIKE-
LY  WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER  IN THE IN-
TERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE PERIOD IS W= 12+9/-12 (Wn= 20+14/
-20). ON THE VISIBLE DISC OF THE SUN 0-3 SMALL QUITE SUNSPOT GROUP 
HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. 

 NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY  IS EXPECTED AT THE LOW LEVEL.  
THE ESTIMATED,  MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE  OF THE RELATIVE 
SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK 
IS W = 25+15/-20.

FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE VERY LOW LEVEL ALL DAYS. 2 SOLAR FILAMENT 
EJECTIONS OCCURRENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. ACCORDING TO THE SOHO AND 
STEREO CORONOGRAPHS DATA >5 CMEs HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
FLARES to   tm    te   local.     Class   E(1-8A)  AR   RII/IV   CME
                                 X-ray/p  J/m-2
DSF     to     te      l  . Fl     A        CME/to
16.05  >0125  >1242  S07W59L196        6
17.05  >0927  >2330  S34E07l117        9                     
---------------------------------------------------------------------

NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LOW WITH A SLIGHT CHAN-
CE FOR C-CLASS FLARES AFTER 23.05.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
---------------------------------------------------------------------
  sign   N end   E end   S end  W end    Sch    EE   R  G   Space Obser.
CH  -  N05L115 S12L100  S15L102 S05L127       20.05   10 1  SDO, SOHO...
CH  -  S15L110 S05L080  S30L093 S20L111       21.05   10 2  SDO, SOHO...
CH  -  N28L091 N20L085  N00L098 N18L112       21.05    1    SDO, SOHO...
  +  N28L032 N23L027  N20L034 N25L036       28.05    1    SDO, SOHO...
The first two may have one CH;
Sch - CH Square in Mm**2 (in square megameters) near the central meri-
dian on http://sdowww.lmsal.com/suntoday/; n/d - no data;
R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the 
Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on
the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition.
------------------------------------------------------------------------

 AFTER 4.05/0224 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAG-
NETIC FIELD. PERIOD FROM 15 TO 19.05 THE SIGN OF THE SECTOR SHORTLY CHAN-
GED, REMAINING A LARGE PART OF TIME IN THE "-" SECTOR. NEXT SECTOR BORDER 
- / + EARTH SHOULD BE PASSED 0N 27.05.

Y      15     16     17     18     19     20     21     Y
Wus     000    023    013    024    024    022    035     
F10.7   071    072    071    072    072    072    074   
bcg   A3.9   4.2   4.8   5.4   5.0   5.0   5.1     GOES
Sp      000    030    030    030    030    030    070 msh   
N               2             1                    1  
IMF     -/+    +/-     -     -/+     -      -      -      DSCOVR   
>2  1.3+6 3.3+6 1.0E+7 3.1E+6 6.3+6 3.0+7 4.3+8     GOES
Ie>2           112    256    149    329   1445  13008 pfu 
Ap       14     8      8      11     11     4     10   n BOULDER 
Dst                                 -24    -37   -23   n KIOTO 
Amsc     13     9      9      7      17     4      9   n IZMIRAN 
------------------------------------------------------------------
>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or-
bits in days according to GOES15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BEGAN
20.05/1705 UT IN RESPONSE TO ELEVATED WIND SPEED FROM CH HSS INFLU-
ENCE AND OBSERVED 20 - 21.05.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY 
HIGH LEVEL IS EXPECTED 22 - 29.05.

GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS QUIET AND UNSETTLED ALL DAYS, EXCEPT 20.05 
WHEN THE MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G0, Ams= 27, dur.= 18 h.) IS NOTED BY 
THE CENTER IN BOULDER. ACCORDING TO IZMIRAN DATA, THIS DISTURBATION 
WAS 9-hour SUBSTORM INTENSITY (G0). THIS DISTURBATION IS THE CONSE-
QUENCE OF THE HIGH-SPEED STREAM FROM THE CORONAL HOLES "-" POLARITY.

 ON THE NEXT WEEK THE QUIET AND UNSETTLED GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION TO 
BE EXPECTED.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA               http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, 
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM               http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, 
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA  http://www.izmiran.ru
                                                          V. Ishkov