Pushkov Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere and Radio Wave Propagation
Russian Academy of Sciences
( founded in 1939 )
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Solar Activity Forecast

2018/08/20

      Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
                 Highlights on 12 - 19.08.2018,
                  Forecast on 20 - 27.08.2018,
            Carrington Rotation 2207 (06,1.08.2018) 
            Earth out of ecliptic (-0.2 - +0.2) deg. 
            (S25 - N25 is zone of geoeffectiveness)

THE SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN  WAS ON THE VERY LOW LEVEL:
THE SUN WAS SPOTLESS 13.08 ONLY (132 DAYS IN CURRENT YEAR). ESTIMA-
TED,  MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUM-
BER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD W = 006+3/-6 (Wn= 
010+4/-10). ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK 2 SMALL, QUITE SUNSPOT GROUP
HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.

NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY WILL BE ON THE VERY LOW LE-
VELS. LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN 
THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old)  FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W=010+10/-10. 

 THE FLARE ACTIVITY WAS ON THE VERY LOW LEVEL. 3 FILAMENT EJECTION
AND 3 CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.
------------------------------------------------------------------
FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES
        to   tm    te   local.    Class   E(1-8A)  AR   RII/IV CME
                                X-ray/p   J/m-2
DSF     to      te  localization   l  .  Fl    AR    CME/to
14.08 >0108  >1308  N17W51L190      16
15.08 >0053  >1340  N16W58L170       5
19.08 <0546  <0621  S09W06L179       6            12718   /0716
------------------------------------------------------------------

NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW LEVELS.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
------------------------------------------------------------------------
  sign   N end   E end   S end  W end    Sch    EE   R  G  Space Obser.
CH  -  N21L266 S12L278  S15L273 N10L253       15.08  R1     SDO, ACE...
CH  +  Pn      N45L318  S15L321 S00L308       16.08  R1     SDO, ACE...
CH  -  N12L183 N00L191  S07L185 N05L183       20.08  R1     SDO, ACE...
CH  -  S03L208 S20L223  S22L218 S18L203       22.08  R1     SDO, ACE...
Last two CH may be the parts of one.
Sch - CH Square in Mm**2 (in square megameters) near the central meri-
dian on http://sdowww.lmsal.com/suntoday/; n/d - no data;
R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the 
Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on
the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition.
------------------------------------------------------------------------

 AFTER 12.08/2215 UT EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAG-
NETIC FIELD. NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY +/- THE EARTH MUST PASS 18.08.
------------------------------------------------------------------
AUGUST  13     14     15     16     17     18     19   AUGUST
Wus    000    012    012    012    011    011    015 
F10.7  068    069    069    068    067    067    067
bcg  1.0   1.6   1.4   1.4   1.3   1.3   1.2  GOES
Sp     000    010    010    010    020    010    010  msh   
N                                        
IMF     +      +      +      +      +      +     +   DSCOVR   
>2 7.8E+5 1.3E+6 8.7+5 8.0E+6 1.2+7 1.9+8 4.7E+8  GOES
Ie>2       background       391    399   7217  18287  pfu 
Ap      5      4      13     12     15    12      11  n  
Dst                                                   n KIOTO
Amsc    5      4      16     10     16    6       8   n IZMIRAN 
------------------------------------------------------------------
>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or-
bits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BEGUN AT
18.08/1410 AND 18-19.08 HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.  
 
 NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS 
ORBIT IS EXPECTED 20-27.08.

 THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION  WAS ACTIVE 15 AND 17.08 AND QUITE AND UN-
SETTLED IN OTHER DAYS.

THE NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS EXPECTED TO BE PRIMARILY
QUITE, WITH A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED ACTIVE CONDITION 20-22.08  DUE TO 
INFLUENCES FROM HIGH SPEED STREAM FROM CORONAL HOLE WITH WEAK MAGNE-
TIC FIELDS.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA               http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, 
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM               http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, 
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA  http://www.izmiran.ru
                                                          V. Ishkov