Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 10 - 16.10.2011,
Forecast on 17 - 24.10.2011,
Carrington Rotations 2015, 2016 (22,71.09; 19,99.10.2011)

SOLAR SUNSPOT ACTIVITY OF THE SUN OF THE LAST PERIOD KEPT AT THE AVERAGE 
LEVEL, GRADUALLY DECREASING BY THE PERIOD END. ESTIMATED, RATING, WEEKLY 
AVERAGE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE PERIOD WAS 
MADE W=082+18/-30. ON THE VISIBLE DISK OF THE SUN IT IS CONSTANT THERE 
ARE TO 10 SUNSPOT GROUPS, TWO OF WHICH AVERAGE SIZE.

NEXT WEEK  THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY  IS EXPECTED TO BE THE HIGH AND 
AVERAGE. THE CALCULATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER 
IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT PERIOD W=060+10/-10.

FLARE ACTIVITY WAS ON AT LOW LEVEL ALL PERIOD. SOHO CORONOGRAPH HAVE 
REGISTRED 69 CME FROM WHICH 5 WERE OF TYPE PARTIAL HALO II (4) AND III.

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      to   tm    te  localization    Class   E(1-8A)  AR   RII/IV  CME
                                  X-ray opt.  J/m-2             
         to      te  central part localization l(deg.) Fl  AR    CME
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NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON LOW LEVELS.
 
ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK DURING THE LAST WEEK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL 
HOLES WERE OBSERVED :
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  sign N end   Å end   S end   W end      EE    R   Observatories
CH  -  S18L090 S36L079 S40L082 S28L104   15.10  1   ëò SOHO SDO....
Given CH it was transformed from a gulf subpolar CH 4 solar rotations back.
R - solar rotations; KP - KITT PEAK solar observatory;
EE - date of possible geomagnetic disturbation in the Earth's environment.
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AFTER 5.10/05 UT THE EARTH IS IN - SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY 
MAGNETIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOOUNDERY - /+ THE EARTH SHOULD 
PASS ON 23.10.

OCTOBER   10     11     12     13     14     15     16    OCTOBER
Wus      087    113    149    147    157    166    158
F10.7    126    130    134    138    136    138    151
èbcg    ÷3.0   B3.3   ÷4.0   ÷4.1   ÷3.9   ÷4.5   ÷8.6    GOES
Sp       650    840   1040   1200   1250   1290   1240
Nnew
IMF       -      -      -      -      -      -      -      ACE
Å>2   1.1å+6 1.4å+6 2.2å+6 2.4E+6 2.5å+6 2.1å+6 1.7å+6     GOES
Nm%                                                        THULE
Ap       2      3       6      5      2      8      7      áÒ
Dst                                                        KIOTO
Amsc     9      8       8      6      6      11     9      IZMIRAN
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THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT VERY HIGH 
LEVEL OF FLUX WAS NOT OBSERVED.

NEXT WEEK  THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT HIGH LEVEL  IS  NOT 
EXPECTED. 

GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS WERE UNSETTLED AND QUIET ALL PERIOD.

NEXT WEEK IT IS MOST PROBABLE QUIET AND UNSETTLED GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA OF NOAA SEC
http://www.sec.noaa.gov,
OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER – SIDC, BELGIUM
http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, 
OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA  http://www.izmiran.ru