Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 12 - 18.12.2011,
Forecast on 19 - 26.12.2011,
Carrington Rotations 2017, 2118 (16,30.11, 13,61.12.2011)
SOLAR SUNSPOT ACTIVITY OF THE LAST PERIOD WAS ON AVERAGE LEVEL.
ESTIMATED, RATING, WEEKLY AVERAGE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTE-
RNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE PERIOD WAS MADE W=065+18/-25. ON THE
VISIBLE DISK OF THE SUN CONSTANTLY THERE ARE FROM 9 TO 5 SUNSPOT
GROUPS, ONE OF WHICH HAD MIDDLE AREA.
NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE
AVERAGE. THE CALCULATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF SUN-
SPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT PERIOD W=
050+10/-20.
FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE AVERAGE LEVEL 25.12, ON VERY LOW - 19.12
AND ON LOW - IN OTHER DAYS. BY DATA OF SOHO CORONOGRAPH FOR THE
PERIOD IT WAS OBSERVED 72 CORONAL MASS EJECTION AMONG WHICH WERE
TYPE "PARTIAL çáìï": 7 CLASSES II (angular width 90 - 180 deg.)
AND 1 CLASS III (angular width 180 - 270 deg.).
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FLARES to tm te localiz. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME
X/opt. J/m-2
25.12/1811 1816 1911 S22W26L225 M4/1N 1.2E-2 11387 IV/3 II/2 CME
DSF to te c/p localiz. l in deg. Fl AR CME
25.12/<2238 >1701 N18W16lL218 14 CME
c/p localiz. - central part localization
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NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON LOW AND VERY LOW LEVELS.
ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK DURING THE LAST WEEK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL
HOLES WERE OBSERVED :
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sign N end Å end S end W end EE R Observatories
CH + S24L196 S40L142 Ps S30L200 28.12 2 SDO, SOHO, ....
R - solar rotations; KP - KITT PEAK solar observatory;
EE-date of possible geomag. disturbation in the Earth's environment.
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WITH 19.12/04 UT THE EARTH WAS IN "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAG-
NETIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOOUNDERY - /+ THE EARTH SHOULD PASS
ON 27-28.12.
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DECEMBER 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 DECEMBER
Wus 133 139 093 105 123 101 066
F10.7 128 137 145 146 138 143 144
èbcg ÷3.6 ÷5.1 ÷7.8 ÷7.0 ÷4.7 ÷5.7 ÷5.8 GOES
Sp 400 510 530 990 1040 840 590
Nnew 1 1 1 1
IMF + /- - - - - - + ACE
Å>2 1.4å+6 1.1å+6 1.2å+6 8.3E+5 9.1å+5 9.6å+5 8.8å+5 GOES
Nm% THULE
Ap 4 2 3 1 0 1 1 áÒ
Dst ëIOTO
Amsc 11 9 11 7 9 8 8 IZMIRAN
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THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT VERY
HIGH LEVEL OF FLUX WAS NOT OBSERVED.
THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT HIGH LEVEL IS NOT EXPECTED.
ALL PERIOD GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS WERE UNSETTLED AND QUIET.
NEXT WEEK IN SECOND HALF OF NOVEMBER, 28th TO THE EARTH WILL APPROACH
DISTURBANCES FROM FLARE í4 AND FILAMENT EJECTION 25.12. DURING THE SA-
ME TIME THE EARTH WILL BE INCLUDED INTO THE HIGH-SPEED STREAM OF THE
SOLAR WIND FROM SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE'S CORONAL HOLE. PROBABILITY OF THE
MAGNETIC STORM 28-29.11 NOT LESS THAN 40 %. IN OTHER DAYS GEOMAGNETIC
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED QUIET AND UNSETTLED.
HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA
OF NOAA SWPC http://www.sec.noaa.gov,
OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER -
SIDC, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3,
OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru