Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 05 - 11.03.2012,
Forecast on 12 - 19.03.2012,
Carrington Rotations 2121 (04,62.03.2012)

SOLAR SUNSPOT ACTIVITY OF THE LAST PERIOD  WAS ON AVERAGE LEVEL. 
ESTIMATED,  RATING,  WEEKLY  AVERAGE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER  IN  THE 
INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM  FOR THE PERIOD WAS MADE W=059+6/-5. ON VI- 
SIBLE SOLAR DISK  CONSTANTLY PRESENT FROM 5 TO 4 SUNSPOT GROUPS, 
ONE OF WHICH WAS GREAT:
AR11429 (N18L299, Sp = 1270 m.v.h. at 7.03, X/3 + M/12) - IT AP-
PEARANCE FROM EASTERN LIMB 3.02. WITH AR11430 (N19L315, Sp = 200 
m.v.h. at 7.03) IS A SET THE COMPLEX OF ACTIVE REGIONS. IMPORTANT 
OF FLARE ACTIVITY STARTED MARCH, 4th AND TO 11.03 IN CAR OCCUREN-
CED X-RAY CLASS X - 3, CLASS M - 12 FLARES, 5 OF WHICH ARE LARGE.
 
NEXT WEEK THE SUNSPOT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE AVERAGE. THE 
CALCULATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER  IN 
THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK W=040+20/-10.

FLARE ACTIVITY WAS ON THE HIGH LEVEL AT MARCH, 5, 7, 9 AND 10, MID-
DLE - 6.03 AND LOW - IN OTHER DAYS.  BY DATA OF  SOHO CORONOGRAPHS 
FOR THE PERIOD IT WAS OBSERVED 48 CORONAL MASS EJECTION AMONG WHICH 
4 WERE TIPE "HALO" (5, 6, 7 AND 10.03) AND ONE WAS A TYPE "PARTIAL
HALO" II.
It is necessary to notice that the hindrances caused by very big 
flux of solar protons (S3) on coronograph screens, didn't allow 
while to define types of all significant coronal mass ejections.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
FLARES to   tm    te   c/p local.  Class E(1-8A)  AR   RII/IV  CME
                                  X/opt. J/m-2
05.03 0230 0409  0643 N17E52L299 X1.1/2B 3.7E-1 11429           CME 
05.03 1910 1916 >1921 N14E44L299 M2.1/1B 7.8E-3 11429            
05.03 1924 1930  1950 N14E44L299 1B/M1.8 2.7E-3 11429         
05.03 2226 2234 >2242 N14E42L299 M1.3/   7.3E-3 11429            
06.03 0022 0028  0039 N16E41L299 M1.3/SN 3.7E-3 11429
O6.03 0136 0144 >0150 N16E39L299 M1.2/   5.9E-3 11429
06.03 0400 0405  0419 N16E39L299 1N/M1.0 2.6E-3 11429
06.03 0752 0755 >0800            M1.0/   2.7E-3 11429
06.03 1223 1241  1328 N18E38L299 M2.1/1N 2.2E-2 11429
06.03 2104 2111 >2114 N16E41L299 M1.3/   4.9E-3 11429
06.03 2249 2253 >2311            M1.0/   9.7E-3 11429 
07.03 0000 0024  0349 N17E27L299 X5.4/3B 6.7E-1 11429 II/2 IV/2 CME
07.03 0105 0114  0130 N22E12L299 X1.3/SF 1.5E-1 11430 II/2
09.03 0322 0353  0618 N15W08L299 M6.3/SF 1.3E-3 11429 II/2 IV/1 CME
10.03 1715 1744 >1830 N17W24L299 M8.4/   2.6E-1 11429      IV/2 CME
DSF     to      te     c/p localiz. l in deg.  Fl    AR         CME
c/p local. - central part localization 
---------------------------------------------------------------------

NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON AVERAGE AND LOW LEVELS.
 
ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK DURING THE LAST WEEK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL 
HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
---------------------------------------------------------------------
  sign N end   Е end   S end   W end       EE    R   Observatories
CH +  N37L017 N36L012 N28L025 N31L027   06.03   1   SDO, SOHO...
CH +  S15L012 S33L315 S50L317 S17L017   07.03   4   KP, SDO, SOHO...
CH -  N16L232 S02L222 S21L239 S02L242   16.03   1   KP, SDO, SOHO...
R - solar rotations; KP - KITT PEAK solar observatory;
EE-date of possible geomag. disturbation in the Earth's environment.
---------------------------------------------------------------------

AFTER 9.03/05 UT THE EARTH WAS IN "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY 
MAGNETIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDERY + /-+ THE EARTH SHOULD 
PASS 13.03.

MARCH     05     06     07     08     09     10     11    MARCH
Wus      105    109    102    086    096    089    103     
F10.7    132    138    136    140    146    149    131     
иbcg    у1.0   ч7.7   у1.1   ч6.5   ч8.8   ч7.0   ч5.6   GOES
Sp      1240   1540   1800   1330   1240   1120   1260 
Nnew      1                           1             2                 
IMF       -      -   -/+/-     -    + /-     +      +    ACE
Е>2   5.8е+7 2.3е+7 2.9E+7 1.9е+8 1.4е+7 2.5е+8 5.9е+8   GOES
Nm%                                                      THULE
Ap       8       8      42     26     71     18     6    бТ
Dst     -35     -35    -78    -44   -139    -79    -59   лIOTO
Amsc     11      13     34     19     47     17     10   IZMIRAN
---------------------------------------------------------------

 A GREATER THAN 10 MeV PROTON ENHANCEMENT BEGAN AT APPROXIMATELY 
04/1800 UT AND CONTINUED TO BE ENHANCED BY THE END OF THE REPOR-
TING PERIOD. 
Pr >10 MeV: 5.03/0500 UT, нблуйнхн 6530 p.f.u. 05/1540; 
Pr >100 MeV: 5/0405 UT, нблуйнхн 69 p.f.u., te - 10/1650 UT.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT VERY 
HIGH LEVEL OF FLUX WAS OBSERVED AT MARCH, 5 - 8 AND 10 - 11.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT HIGH LEVEL IS EXPECTED AT
MARCH, 12 - 13 AND 17 - 18.

TERMS OF MAGNETIC STORM (G1, Ams=34, dur.=21 h.) ACCORDING IZMIRAN 
AND (G2, Ams = 56, dur.= 18 h.) ACCORDING TO THE CENTER IN BOULDER 
OBSERVED MARCH, 7. SINCE MID-MARCH 8 DAY  AGAIN  OBSERVED MAGNETIC 
STORM (G2, Ams = 67, dur. = 33 h.) ACCORDING IZMIRAN DATA AND (G3, 
Ams=63, dur.=36 h.) ACCORDING TO THE CENTER IN BOULDER. THESE GEO-
MAGNETIC STORM ARE THE RESULT OF FLARE EVENTS 5 AND 7 MARCH. MARCH 
10, GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS BEEN ACTIVE, AND IN OTHER DAYS-UNSETTLED 
AND QUIET.

  NEXT WEEK MARCH, 12 IN ENVIRONMENT WILL COME THE DISTURBANCE FROM 
LARGE SOLAR FLARE OF MARCH 10. WITH A PROBABILITY OF 70% CAN EXPECT
MAJOR MAGNETIC STORM. MARCH, 16  THE EARTH  WILL BE  PASS HIGHSPEED 
STREAM FROM LARGE NEAR-EQUATORIAL CORONAL HOLE. PROBABILITY OF MAG-
NETIC STORM AT LEAST 40%. IN OTHER DAYS GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WILL 
UNSETTLED AND QUITE.

NEXT WEEK AT MARCH, 7 THE EARTH WILL GET UNDER BLOW OF THE LARGE FAST 
CORONAL MASS EJECTION FROM FLARE X-RAY CLASS и1.1 5.03. WITH PROBABI-
LITY OF 70% IT IS POSSIBLE TO EXPECT THE MODERATE MAGNETIC STORM. GEO-
MAGNETIC CONDITIONS OF NEXT DAYS WILL DEPEND ON REALIZATION OF GEOEF-
FECTIVE FLARES OF SUNSPOT GROUP AR11429.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA
OF NOAA SWPC            http://www.sec.noaa.gov,
OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER - 
SIDC, BELGIUM           http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, 
OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA  http://www.izmiran.ru