Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 11 - 17.02.2013,
Forecast on 18 - 25.02.2013,
Carrington Rotations 2133, 2134 (25,84.01; 22,18.02.2013)
SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN REMAINED AT THE LOW AND AVERAGE LE-
VEL. WEEKLY, THE AVERAGE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM
FOR THE PERIOD WAS MADE W=032+13/-17. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK CONSTAN-
TLY THERE WERE PRESENT 2 - 4 SMALL AND QUITE SUNSPOTS GROUPS.
NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE LOW AND
AVERAGE. THE CALCULATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF SUNSPOT
NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED W =
030+20/-10.
FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT LOW LEVEL 12 AND 14.02 AND VERY LOW LEVEL ON THE
OTHER DAYS. BY SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS DATA THERE WERE OBSERVED 26
CME AND THREE OF THEM WERE THE "PARTIAL HALO II" TYPE.
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FLARES to tm te c/p local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME
17.02 1545 1550 1559 N12E22L037 M1.9/SF 2.9E-3 11675
DSF to te c/p local. l in deg. Fl AR CME
12.02 2201 2226 S28W54L163 6
16.02 >1024 <2248 N13E03L080 15
c/p local. - central part localization
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ON THE FOLLOWING WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON THE LOW LEVELS.
ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
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sign N end е end S end W end EE R Observatories
CH + N40L131 N32L116 N27L126 N30L136 14.02 1 KP, SDO SOHO...
R - solar rotations; KP - KITT PEAK solar observatory;
EE-date of possible geomag. disturbation in the Earth's environment.
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AFTER 5.02/18 UT THE EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC
FIELDS. THE SEGMENT OF "-" SECTOR EARTH PASSED 12.02/00-13.02/08 UT.
THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY +/ - EARTH SHOULD PASS AT 18.02.
FEBRUARY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 FEBRUARY
Wus 060 055 026 025 058 059 074
F10.7 105 102 100 100 100 103 100
Хbcg В1.8 В1.8 B1.6 B1.7 В2.1 В2.0 B2.3 wt/m-2 GOES
Sp 370 340 210 200 220 240 250 m.v.h.
N 2 2 2 1
IMF + +/- -/+ + + + + АСЕ
е>2 1.8Е+6 1.1E+6 9.1E+5 1.8Е+6 4.3Е+6 5.9Е+6 8.7E+5 GOES
Ie>2 GOES
Nm% THULE
Ap 3 3 9 10 3 7 13 nТ Ар
Dst КИОТО
Amsc 8 10 15 13 8 10 9 nТ ИЗМИРАН
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e>2 - a fluence in (electrons/cm2-day-sr) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of a flux of electrons in geostationary
orbits in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events
> 1000 p.f.u.
THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY
HIGH LEVEL WAS NOT OBSERVED.
THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY
HIGH LEVEL IS NOT EXPECTED.
THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS WAS QUIET AND UNSETTLED, BUT AT NIGHT HOURS
WAS REGISTRED SUBSTORM G1 (dur. 6 h.). POSSIBLE SOURCE IT GEOMAGNETIC
DISTURBANCE IS SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTION 8.02.
NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS EXPECTED UNSETTLED AND QUIET.
HOWEVER ON FEBRUARY 20-21 ACCORDING TO THE BOULDER DATA GROWTH OF GEO-
MAGNETIC DISTURBANCE HIGHER OF MAGNETIC STORM LEVEL (POSSIBILITY ~30%)
FROM SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTA (DSF) AT 16.02 IS POSSIBLE.
HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA
OF NOAA SWPC http://www.sec.noaa.gov,
OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER -
SIDC, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3,
OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru