Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 18 - 24.03.2013, Forecast on 25 - 31.003.2013, Carrington Rotations 2134, 2135 (22,18.02; 21,5.03.2013) SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN REMAINED ON THE AVERAGE AND, GRA- DUALLY DECREASING, 24.03 FELL TO LOW LEVEL. WEEKLY, THE AVERAGE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE PERIOD WAS MADE W=040+30/-13. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK CONSTANTLY THERE WERE PRESENT 6-3 SUNSPOTS GROUPS ONE OF THEM IS MIDDLE SIZE ON MARCH, 20 ONLY. NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE LOW AND AVERAGE. THE CALCULATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED W = 040+20/-10. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT A MIDDLE LEVEL ON 21.03, THE LOW - 18-20 AND 22. 03 AND VERY LOW - IN OTHER DAYS. BY SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS DATA THERE WERE OBSERVED 54 CME, AND 4 OF WHICH WAS THE "PARTIAL HALO II". -------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES to tm te c/p local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X / opt. J/m-2 21.03 2142 2204 >2236 N09W88L077 M1.6/ 3.3E-2 11692 DSF to te c/p local. l in deg. Fl AR CME 22.03 >0957 <0038 S19W18L352 5 23.03 0218 0315 S16W02L322 10 24.03 0505 0844 N13E07L300 5 24.03 0729 0949 N25E08L299 5 24.03 >0949 <2335 S07E31L277 17 c/p local. - central part localization -------------------------------------------------------------------- ON THE FOLLOWING WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON THE LOW AND THE AVERAGE LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end Å end S end W end EE R Observatories CH - S48L282 S55L348 S50L349 S50L009 23.03 2 SDO, SOHO.. CH - S48L269 S52L264 S58L266 S50L296 28.03 2 SDO, SOHO.. CH ? N40L284 N28L279 N22L284 N30L287 29.03 2 SDO, SOHO.. CH - N10L282 N03L277 S12L279 S02L286 29.03 1 KP, SDO, SOHO.. R - solar rotations; KP - KITT PEAK solar observatory; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbation in the Earth's environment. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- WITH 18.03/10 ON 24/11 UT EARTH WAS IN "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELD, BUT IT, IN MY OPINION, FOR 2-3 DAYS. THE FOLLOWING SEC- TOR BOUNDARY -/ + EARTH SHOULD TO PASS 02.04. MARCH 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 MARCH Wus 116 068 070 060 054 056 045 F10.7 118 110 108 106 101 098 096 èbcg ÷3.7 ÷2.6 ÷3.1 B2.8 ÷3.2 ÷2.1 B1.3 wt/m-2 GOES Sp 930 630 520 460 210 250 180 m.v.h. N 1 1 1 1 IMF +/- - - - - - -/+ áóå Å>2 1.4å+7 2.8E+7 5.0E+7 8.4å+7 1.8å+8 8.8å+7 3.1E+7 GOES Ie>2 253 561 1516 1856 3877 2379 801 GOES Nm% THULE Ap 7 4 10 12 4 11 5 nô áÒ Dst ëIOTO Amsc 9 8 14 18 10 14 8 nô IZMIRAN -------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - a fluence in (electrons/cm2-day-sr) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of a flux of electrons in geostationary orbits in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events > 1000 p.f.u. MINOR SOLAR PROTON EVENT WAS OCCURENCE 16 MARCH FROM BACK SIDE SOURCE, PROBABLY: Pr>10 MeV, to-16/1940 UT; max-16 pfu, tm-17/0700 UT; te-18/07 UT. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH LEVEL BEGUN AT 20.03/1720 UT AND WAS OBSERVED 20 - 23.03. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH LEVEL IS NOT EXPECTED. THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS REMAINED QUIET AND UNSETTLED. HOWEVER AT NIGHT HOURS 20-21 MARCH THE MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G1, Ams=32, dur.= 12 h.) WAS REGISTRED ACCORDING OF IZMIRAN DATA, BUT ACCORDING DATA OF CENTRE IN BOULDER THIS GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE WAS 7-HOURS SUBSTORM. NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS EXPECTED UNSETTLED AND QUIET. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA OF NOAA SWPC http://www.sec.noaa.gov, OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER - SIDC, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru