Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 08 - 14.03.2013 , Forecast on 15 - 22.04.2013, Carrington Rotations 2135, 2136 (21,5.03; 17,78.04.2013) SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN CHANGED FROM THE HIGH TO THE AVERA- GE LEVELS. WEEKLY, THE AVERAGE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE PERIOD WAS MADE W=080+18/-10. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK CONSTANTLY WERE PRESENT FROM 9 TO 6 QUIET GROUPS OF THE SUNSPOTS, TWO OF WHICH WERE AVERAGE SIZE. 12.04 FOR ONE DAY THE AR11718 (N23L110, Sp max=510 m.v.h.) GREW TO THE BIG LEVEL. NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE AVERAGE. THE CALCULATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED W = 050+20/-10. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT HIGH LEVEL ON APRIL 11, WHEN IN SMALL (Sp max= 290 m.v.h.) SUNSPOT GROUP AR11719 (N08L077) IT WAS OCCURED ISOLATED A LARGE FLARE (M6.5). 13.04 FLASH IN OTHER AR TOO HAPPENED ONE ISOLA- TED FLARE OF MIDDLE X-RAY CLASS. IN OTHER DAYS FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT A LOW LEVEL. 12 EJECTION OF SOLAR FILAMENTS ARE OBSERVED IN THIS PE- RIOD. BY BY SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS DATA THERE WERE OBSERVED SO- HO 62 CME FROM WHICH ONE WAS THE GALO TYPE (FROM FLARE M6.5/3B) AND ONE - TYPE OF "PARTIAL GALO II". -------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES to tm te c/p local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X / opt. J/m-2 11.04 0655 0716 0906 N09E12L077 M6.5/3B 7.4E-2 11719 II IV CME/H 13.04 1952 2038 >2046 N21W42L110 M3.3/ 2.4E-2 11718 DSF to te c/p local. l in deg. Fl AR CME 08.04 >0943 <2334 S05W49L171 5 CME 08.04 >0050 <1459 N00å32L090 11 09.04 0001 0155 N47W26L135 7 09.04 0329 0414 S10E15L094 5 09.04 >0900 <0107 S02E20L089 11 11.04 0349 0407 N41E21L054 7 12.04 >0000 <0151 N06W46L116 10 13.04 0246 0303 S37E23L033 13 c/p local. - central part localization -------------------------------------------------------------------- ON THE FOLLOWING WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON THE LOW AND THE AVERAGE LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end Å end S end W end EE R Observatories CH + S39L112 S52L102 S55L112 S40L142 10.04 1 SDO, SOHO.. CH - S28L093 S38L092 S40L095 S35L101 13.04 1 SDO, SOHO.. CH - N45L013 N40L353 N22L015 N35L025 20.04 1 SDO, SOHO.. R - solar rotations; KP - KITT PEAK solar observatory; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbation in the Earth's environment. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- WITH 14.03/17 UT EARTH WAS IN "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNE- TIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY -/+ EARTH SHOULD TO PASS 02- 03.04. APRIL 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 APRIL Wus 162 116 163 121 128 148 111 F10.7 139 147 148 137 138 125 117 èbcg ÷4.0 ÷6.4 ÷7.0 B6.5 ÷5.9 ÷3.7 B3.4 wt/m-2 GOES Sp 1140 960 1080 960 1220 790 710 m.v.h. N 2 2 IMF + + + + + + +/- áóå Å>2 1.4å+7 1.8E+7 2.3E+7 1.6å+7 1.5å+7 1.5å+7 2.5E+6 GOES Ie>2 GOES Nm% THULE Ap 3 8 7 4 7 5 11 nô áÒ Dst nô ëéïôï Amsc 6 7 7 7 7 8 12 nô éúíéòáî -------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - a fluence in (electrons/cm2-day-sr) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of a flux of electrons in geostationary orbits in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events > 1000 p.f.u. SPE (S2) WAS REGISTRED 11-14 APRIL FROM í6.5 FLARE: Pr>10 MeV, to-11/0940 UT; max-114 pfu, tm-11/1645 UT; te-14/24 UT. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH LEVEL WAS NOT OBSERVED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH LEVEL IS NOT EXPECTED. GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS REMAINED UNSETTLED AND QUITE. THE INTERPLANETARY SHOCK FROM FLARE M6.5 X-RAY CLASS 11.04 GAVE THE SUDDEN IMPULSE OF 13/ 2255 UT, BUT SIGNIFICANT MAGNETIC DISTURBANCE DIDN'T DEVELOP. NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS EXPECTED UNSETTLED AND QUIET. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA OF NOAA SWPC http://www.sec.noaa.gov, OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER - SIDC, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru