Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 12 - 18.08.2013, Forecast on 19 - 26.08.2013, Carrington Rotations 2140 (04,64.08.2013) SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN REMAINED AT THE AVERAGE LEVEL, GRADUALLY INCREASING. WEEKLY, THE AVERAGE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM WAS MADE W = 064+16/-13. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK CONSTANTLY THERE WERE 5 - 9 SUNSPOTS GROUPS, ONE OF WHICH (AR 11818, S07L218) ON SOME DAYS WAS OF AVERAGE SIZE. NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE AVERA- GE LEVEL. THE CALCULATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED W = 050+20/-10. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT AN AVERAGE LEVEL 12 AND 17.08 AND THE LOW - IN OTHER DAYS. DURING THE CONSIDERED PERIOD 6 DSF WERE OBSERVED. BY SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS DATA THERE WERE OBSERVED 28 CME FROM WHICH 1 WAS "HALO" TYPE AND 2 WERE THE "PARTIAL HALO II" TYPE. -------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES to tm te c/p local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X / opt. J/m-2 12.08 1021 1041 1130 S17E19L242 M1.5/SN 9.6E-3 11817 17.08 1816 1824 2141 S07W30L218 2B/M3.3 2.1E-2 11818 II/2 IV/2 H 17.08 1849 1933 >1954 S05W30L218 2B/M1.4 4.6E-2 11818 IV/1 DSF to te c/p local. l in deg. Fl AR CME 12.08 >0932 <2336 S34E32L347 9 16.08 >1603 <0520 S26E50L152 8 16.08 >1603 <0520 N20E73L129 5 17.08 >0002 <0053 N34W90L056 47 17.08 >0934 <2324 N19W09L197 6 17.08 >1657 <0505 S12E50L138 9 c/p local. - central part localization -------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT THE LOW AND SOMETIME AVE- RAGE LEVEL. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end Å end S end W end EE R Observatories CH - N48L203 N555L198 N10L223 N15L275 14-16.08 4 SDO, SOHO.. CH - N22L165 N105L171 S09L180 S00L184 21.08 4 SDO, SOHO.. R - solar rotations; KP - KITT PEAK solar observatory; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbation in the Earth's environment. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- AFTER 9.08/04 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELD. 12 - 13.08 SIGN OF SECTOR HAS CHANGED SEVERAL TIMES. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY -/ + THE EARTH SHOULD TO PASS 22.08. AUGUST 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 AUGUST Wus 085 098 105 129 104 096 134 F10.7 114 122 125 123 120 125 126 èbcg ÷3.2 B4.8 ÷4.2 B4.1 B3.6 B3.9 B5.4 GOES Sp 330 670 550 770 650 630 840 m.v.h. N 1 1 2 1 3 IMF -/+ +/- - - - - - áóå Å>2 3.4å+7 6.7E+6 2.4E+6 1.6å+6 2.2å+7 1.8E+8 2.1E+8 GOES Ie>2 1355 4301 4650 GOES Ap 5 9 9 15 23 7 5 nT áÒ Dst nT KIOTO Amsc 9 13 12 14 24 9 10 nT IZMIRAN -------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - a fluence in (electrons/cm2-day-sr) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of a flux of electrons in geostationary orbits in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events > 1000 p.f.u. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH LEVEL BEGINING 6.08/1800 UT AND OBSERVED 16 - 18.08. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH LEVEL IS EXPECTED AT 19 - 22.08. MINOR GEOMAGNETIC STORM (G1, Ams = 29, dur.= 15 h.) WAS REGISTERED 16 AUGUST ACCORDING BY DATA OF THE IZMIRAN. ACCORDING CENTER IN BOUL- DER DATA THE DISTURBANCE WAS 9-HOUR MAGNETIC SUBSTORM (G1). IN OTHER DAYS GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS UNSETTLED. NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION CAN BE ACTIVE BY 20-22.08, WHICH THESE DAYS COULD REACH LEVELS OF MAGNETIC STORM. FIRST COME TO EARTH THE ICME FROM FLARES 17.08, THEN EARTH WILL PASS HIGH FLOW FROM SO- LAR LARGE EQUATORIAL CORONAL HOLES. PROBABILITY OF MAGNETIC STORM IN THESE DAYS IS ABOUT 20%. ON OTHER DAYS THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WILL BE QUITE AND UNSETTLED. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA OF NOAA SWPC http://www.sec.noaa.gov, OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER - SIDC, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru