Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 18 - 24.11.2013, Forecast on 25.11 - 02.12.2013, Carrington Rotations 2143, 2144 (25,43.10; 21,73.11.2013) SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITYOF THE SUN AFTER 18.11 START GRADUALY DEC- LINE AND REMAINED AT AN AVERAGE LEVEL. WEEKLY, THE AVERAGE OF SUN- SPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM WAS MADE W = 053+33/-22. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK CONSTANTLY THERE WERE 8-4 SUNSPOT GROUPS ONE OF WHICH AR11899 (N06L037, Sp = 630 mvh) WAS LARGE, AND ONE BOTH RATHER QUIET. IN THE LAST DAY OF PERIOD THE SUNSPOT GROUP AR11893 (S12L103, Sp=480 mvh), FLARE ACTIVE, WAS AN AVERAGE SIZE. NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE HIGH AND THE MIDDLE LEVELS. THE CALCULATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED W = 060+30/-20. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS FOR AT THE HIGH LEVEL ON 19.11, AT THE AVERAGE - 21, 23.11 AND AT THE LOW - IN OTHER DAYS. DURING THE CONSIDERED PERIOD 2 DSF WERE OBSERVED. BY SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS DATA THERE WERE OBSERVED 45 CME FROM WHICH ONE WAS THE "PARTIAL HALO III" TYPE AND 2 - "PARTIAL HALO II" TYPE. -------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES to tm te c/p local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X / opt. J/m-2 18.11 1014 1026 >1135 S13W70L100 X1.0/SF 6.6E-2 11893 II/1 CME Pr 21.11 1052 1111 >1520 N19E28L074 M2.5/ 2.5E-2 11895 23.11 0220 0232 0314 N14W56L037 M1.1/1N 1.4E-2 11904 23.11 1249 1257 >1305 N12W64L037 M1.0/ 6.8E-3 11904 DSF to te c/p local. l in deg. Fl AR CME 19.11 1602 2111 N38E03L014 6 21.11 >0649 >0820 N19E28L336 9 24.11 >1016 <2213 SO5W56L016 9 c/p local. - central part localization -------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT THE AVERA- GE AND LOW LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: -------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end Å end S end W end EE R Observatories óH - N47L336 N45L321 N39L338 N43L340 26.11 1 SDO, SOHO.... It was formed on a visible disk of the Sun 23.11!!!! - INVESTIGATE! R - solar rotations; KP - KIT PEAK solar observatory; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment. --------------------------------------------------------------------- AFTER 13.11/2330 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF INTERPLANETARY MAG- NETIC FIELDS. THE FOLLOWING SECTORAL BOUNDARY -/+ THE EARTH MUST PASS 1.12. NOVEMBER 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 NOVEMBER Wus 144 113 095 085 051 065 069 F10.7 164 168 171 141 147 153 127 èbcg ÷8.4 B6.7 B6.5 ÷6.0 ÷9.3 ÷5.3 ÷5.5 GOES Sp 1550 1540 1180 890 740 750 880 mvh N 2 IMF - - - - - - - áóå Å>2 1.9å+6 2.9E+6 3.0E+6 3.6å+6 4.8å+6 1.5E+6 8.6E+5 GOES Ie>2 pfu GOES Ap 6 5 2 3 2 3 1 nT áÒ Dst nT KIOTO Amsc 4 10 4 3 6 7 4 nT IZMIRAN -------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - a fluency in (electrons/cm2-day-sr) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of a flux of electrons in geostationary orbits in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events > 1000 p.f.u. SMALL PROTON EVENT HAVE BEEN REPORTED 19.11 FROM THE FLARE X1.0: Pr (E>10 MeV): to - 1305 UT; tmax-19/2305 UT - 3pfu; Te - 20/2030 UT. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH LEVEL NOT OBSERVED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH LEVEL NOT EXPECTED. GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS CHANGING FROM UNSETTLED TO THE LOW. NEXT WEEK GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNSETTLED AND QUITE. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA OF NOAA SWPC http://www.sec.noaa.gov, OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER - SIDC, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru