HAPPY NEW (old) YEAR 2014,
YEAR OF SOLAR ACTIVITY MAXIMUM FOR CURRENT SOLAR CYCLE XXIV!
šHealth, success and fulfillment of all your desires!
Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 06 - 12.01.2014,
Forecast on 13 - 20.01.2014,
Carrington Rotation 2145, 2146 (19,05.12.2013, 15.39.01.2014)
SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN CHANGED FROM THE HIGH TO THE AVERA-
GE LEVELS. WEEKLY, THE AVERAGE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL
SYSTEM WAS MADE W=096+51/-32. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK CONSTANTLY OB-
SERVED 5-8 SUNSPOT GROUPS, ONE OF THEM WAS OF THE BIG SIZE:
AR11944, S04L097, Sp =1560 mvh - the second on area in the current so-
lar cycle sunspot group appeared from E-limb 1.01 fully formed large,
relatively quiet, in which to 7.01 realized five solar flares of the
middle classes. Together with AR11943 was complex active regions. Des-
pite the complex magnetic configuration parts AR , where flares of the
middle classes in general magnetic field retained simple bipolar struc-
ture, does not imply the feasibility of large solar flares occurrences.
However, in the second half 05.01 on northeast of the leading spot sur-
facing manifested significant new magnetic flux, which resulted in the
formation of a small spots and pores compact cluster. As a consequence
of this process for 8 hours 7.01 realized two large solar flares. First,
class M7.2/2B, realized in the interior of sunspot groups and produced
a small proton event (S1), but the second, class X1.2/2N realized in
area CAR southwest from a large leading spot AR11944, that provide re-
lief output of solar protons and led to the registration in the enviro-
nement space, the third largest in the current solar cycle, large (S3)
proton event.
NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED THE AVERAGE AND THE HIGH LEVEL OF SUNSPOT-FORMING
ACTIVITY. ESTIMATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF RELATIVE SUN-
SPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED
W=070+20/-20.
FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE HIGH LEVEL 7.01, THE AVERAGE LEVEL - 8.01 AND
LOW LEVEL IN OTHER DAYS. DURING THE REPORTING PERIOD 2 EJECTA OF SOLAR
FILAMENT. BY SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS DATA THERE WERE OBSERVED 35
CME FROM WHICH ONE WAS "HALO" AND FIVE WERE "PARTIAL HALO II" TYPE.
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FLARES to tm te c/p local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME
X / opt. J/m-2
07.01 0349 0353 0404 N07E09L096 í1.0/1N 2.7E-2 11946
07.01 1007 1013 1124 S13E13L101 í7.2/2÷ 9.2E-2 11944
07.01 1048 1832 2054 S18W08L101 X1.2/2N 2.5E-1 11944 II/2 CME/1362km/s
08.01 0339 0347 >0354 N11W88L180 M3.6/SF 2.4E-3 11947 II/2 CME
DSF to te c/p local. l in deg. Fl AR CME
10.01 2017 2123 S41W23L079 13
10.01 2218 2259 N31W06L062 11
c/p local. - central part localization
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NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT THE LOW AND
AVERAGE LEVELS.
ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
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sign N end Å end S end W end EE R G Observatories
óH - N55L060 N45L039 N28L084 N33L088 11.01 5 SDO, SOHO....
óH - N15L064 N08L054 N00L059 N18L065 12.01 2 G0 SDO, SOHO....
10.01 these coronal holes merged into one giant coronal hole, but the
north pole it does not occupied.
óH - N55L061 N50L036 S10L069 N25L089 11-12.01 5+2 SDO, SOHO....
R - solar rotations; KP - KIT PEAK solar observatory;
EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment.
G - geoeffectivity in last solar rotation/
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AFTER 10.01 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC
FIELDS. 11.01 SIGN OF INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELD VARIES. THE FOL-
LOWING SECTORAL BOUNDARY - /+ THE EARTH SHOULD PASS 17.01.
JANUARY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 JANUARY
Wus 245 196 178 106 138 134 118
F10.7 204 237 195 184 175 166 155
èbcg ó1.1 ÷9.6 ó1.0 ÷7.8 ÷7.1 ÷7.2 ÷6.7 GOES
Sp 1855 1850 1990 1960 2240 1800 1620 mvh
N 2 1 2 1 1
IMF + + + + +/- -/+/- - áóå
Å>2 3.9å+7 4.1å+7 1.7å+7 9.9å+7 2.3å+7 1.1E+7 8.2E+6 GOES
Ie>2 618 2692 3078 3073 543 189 165 pfu GOES
Ap 4 8 7 9 5 4 9 nT áÒ
Dst nT KIOTO
Amsc 6 6 10 9 9 8 8 nT IZMIRAN
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Å>2 - a fluency in (electrons/cm2-day-sr) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of a flux of electrons in geostationary
orbits in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events
> 1000 p.f.u.
TWO SMALL AND ON BIG SOLAR PROTON EVENT IS REGISTERED;
Pr (>10 MeV) to6.01/~08 UT; max ~42 pfu 06/~16 UT; back side event ;
Pr (>10 MeV) to 7.01/~18 UT; max ~12 pfu 07/~20 UT;
Pr (>10 MeV) to 7.01/2030 UT; max 1033 pfu 08/2949UT; te-13/12 UT.
THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH
LEVEL OBSERVED 7-10.01.
THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH
LEVEL NOT EXPECTED.
GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION VARIES FROM UNSETTLED TO QUITE.
NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS AS A WHOLE ARE EXPECTED UNSETTLED
AND QUIET.
HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA
OF NOAA SWPC http://www.sec.noaa.gov,
OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER -
SIDC, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3,
OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru