Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 03 - 09.03.2014, Forecast on 10 - 17.03.2014 , Carrington Rotation 2147, 2148 (11,73.02; 11.06.2014) SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY REMINDER AT THE HIGH LEVELS TO 8.03, THEN - THE MODERATE LEVEL. THE AVERAGE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNA- TIONAL SYSTEM WAS MADE W=099+16/-25. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK CON- STANTLY OBSERVED 9-11 SMALL SUNSPOT GROUPS. NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED THE HIGH AND THE MODERATE LEVELS OF SUNSPOT- FORMING ACTIVITY. ESTIMATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF RE- LATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED W=090+20/-20. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE MODERATE LEVEL 03, 05, 08 - 9.03, AND LOW LEVEL IN OTHER DAYS. WITHIN THE PERIOD WERE OBSERVED 3 SOLAR FILA- MENT EJECTIONS. BY SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS DATA THERE WERE OB- SERVED 42 CME, TWO WERE OF THE TYPE "PARTIAL HALO III" AND 6 WERE - “PARTIAL HALO II”. ------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES to tm te c/p local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X / opt. J/m-2 03.03 1554 1558 1604 N05W36L136 M1.2/SN 2.6E-3 11989 05.03 0427 0430 >0520 S27W08L094 M1.1/ 2.0E-3 11991 08.03 2326 2341 >2350 S18E64L323 M1.4/ 1.1E-2 12002 09.03 1327 1358 1425 S18E55L323 SN/M1.0 5.5E-3 12002 09.03 2013 2028 2101 S19E54L323 M1.0/SF 9.2E-3 12002 DSF to te c/p local. l in deg. Fl AR CME 06.03 >0013 <1442 S31E57L356 26 07.03 0638 0843 N33E15L027 9 08.03 >1556 <0603 S41W23L053 9 -------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT THE AVERAGE AND THE LOW LE- VELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: -------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end Å end S end W end EE R G Observatories CH - N42L038 N40L033 N12L053 N15L041 09.03 7+4 1 SDO, SOHO,.... CH + S38L061 S50L003 S60L043 S55L078 07.03 3 1 SDO, SOHO,.... CH + S15L023 S20L017 S20L020 S18L027 12.03 1 SDO, SOHO,.... R - solar rotations; KP - KIT PEAK solar observatory; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment. G - geoeffectivity in last solar rotation; A - active. --------------------------------------------------------------------- AFTER 9.03/14 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF INTERPLANETARY MAGNE- TIC FIELDS. THE FOLLOWING SECTORAL BOUNDARY -/+ THE EARTH SHOULD PASS 13.02. MARCH 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 MARCH Wus 191 171 202 174 161 138 123 F10.7 161 158 149 149 148 142 146 èbcg ó1.0 ÷8.8 ÷7.6 ÷5.5 ÷5.4 ÷6.4 B9.3 GOES Sp 930 770 930 740 740 490 340 mvh N 1 2 2 1 IMF -/+ + + + + + +/- áóå Å>2 3.6å+6 3.2å+6 4.4å+6 4.5å+6 6.6å+6 6.1E+6 6.5E+6 GOES Ie>2 pfu GOES Ap 6 8 8 6 3 3 2 nT áÒ Dst nT KIOTO Amsc 6 10 12 8 5 5 4 nT IZMIRAN -------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - a fluency in (electrons/cm2-day-sr) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary orbits in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events > 1000 pfu. PROTRACTED SOLAR PROTON EVENT OCCURRENCES 25.02 FROM X4.9/2B SOLAR FLA- RE EVENTS IN áR11990: Pr >10 MeV: to 19/0330; max1 23 pfu 25/2020; max2 59 pfu-27/1845; max3 103 pfu 28/0845; max4 88 pfu 28/2230 UT; max5 33 pfu 01/2220; te-05/09UT. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH LEVEL NOT OBSERVED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH LEVEL NOT EXPECTED. GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS REMAIN QUITE AND UNSETTLED. NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS AS A WHOLE ARE EXPECTED UNSETTLED AND QUIET. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA OF NOAA SWPC http://www.sec.noaa.gov, OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER - SIDC, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru