Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 13 - 17.10.2014,
Forecast on 18 - 27.10.2014,
Carrington Rotations 2155, 2156 (17,72.09; 15,00.10.2014)
SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN WAS AT THE AVERAGE LEVEL.
ESTIMATED, WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER
IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM WAS MADE W = 34+20/-11. ON THE VI-
SIBLE DISK OF THE SUN CONSTANTLY OBSERVED 3 - 7 SMALL SUNSPOTS
GROUPS.
15.10 ON EAST LIMB THERE WAS AR12192 - CAR 12172+73 IN WHICH ON
LAST ROTATION TWO LARGE FLARES WERE OCCURRED. FROM 7.10 ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE SUN (å"-40") IN CAR THE FAST INCREASE IN ITEN
SITY ON OBSERVATION OF THE GONG SIGNAL, AND 14, 16.10 WAS OBSER-
VED LARGE FLARES WHICH WERE REFLECTED IN THE VISIBLE DISK OF THE
SUN AS FLARES OF THE CLASS M WERE OBSERVED.
NEXT WEEK THE AVERAGE AND LOW LEVELS OF SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED. ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF RELA-
TIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK
IS EXPECTED W = 040+10/-20.
FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE MIDDLE LEVEL ON 14 AND 16 OCTOBER, THE
LOW LEVEL - IN OTHER DAYS. THERE IS 6 EJECTIONS OF THE SOLAR FI-
LAMENTS. BY DATA OF CORONOGRAPHS SOHO AND STEREO WERE OBSERVED 20
CME, ONE OF WHICH WAS THE "HALO" TYPE AND TWO - "PARTIAL GALO II".
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FLARES to tm te c/p local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME
X-ray/Ïp J/m-2
14.10* 1821 1837 >1846 s13E90L252 M1.1/ 9.7E-03 12192 CME
14.10* 1907 1921 >0019 s13E90L252 M2.2 3.1E-01 12192 CME
16.10 1258 1303 >1305 S13W88L120 M4.3 8.2E-03 12192 CME
* AR - 2 days for å-limb
DSF to te c/p local. l in deg. Fl AR CME
14.10 >0018 >1331 S26W35L039 12
14.10 0844 0934 S19W44L048 10
15.10 2251 0234 N03E30L317 15
16.10 >1034 >0555 N02W67L051 7
17.10 >0003 >1332 N30E36L284 6
17.10 >0940 >2244 N25E29L291 23
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NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON THE LOW AND THE AVERAGE LE-
VELS.LARGE AND POWERFUL FLARES ARE POSSIBLE IN AR12192 ONLY IN CASE
OF EMERGENCE OF THE NEW SIGNIFICANT MAGNETIC FLUX. TODAY ENERGY OF
LAST MAGNETIC FLUX IS SPENT.
ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
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sign N end Å end S end W end EE R G Observatories
CH + N18L302 N17L304 S07L312 N05L325 20.10 1 SDO,SOHO....
CH + N45L302 N30L300 N20L308 N30L312 21.10 1 SDO,SOHO....
Possibly it is one very extended CH
R - solar rotations; KP - KIT PEAK solar observatory;
EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment.
G - geoeffectivity in last solar rotation;
A-active geomagnetic condition.
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AFTER 11.10/10 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY
MAGNETIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDERY - / + THE EARTH HAS TO
PASS 19.10.
OCTOBER 13 14 15 16 17 OCTOBER
Wus 041 070 090 060 039
F10.7 113 120 126 139 146
èbcg ÷3.5 ÷3.7 Ó1.3 Ó1.1 Ó1.0 GOES
Sp 400 420 400 420 620 mvh
N 1 1 2 1
IMF - - - - - áóå
Å>2 3.0E+5 1.5å+6 3.7å+5 4.0å+5 9.5å+5 GOES
Ie>2 pfu GOES
Ap 8 19 12 7 8 nT áÒ
Dst -6 -50 -50 -26 -33 nT KIOTO
Amsc 9 24 9 7 8 nT IZMIRAN
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Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary orbits
in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.
THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH
LEVEL NOT OBSERVED.
THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH
LEVEL IS NOT EXPECTED.
MODERATE MAGNETIC STORM (G2, Ams=45, dur.=12 h.) ACCORDING IZMIRAN DA-
TA AND (G1, Ams= 45, dur.= 12 h.) ACCORDING BOULDER CENTRE DATA IT IS
NOTED 14-15.10 AS A RESULT OF DISTURBANCE ARRIVAL FROM FILAMENT EJEC-
TION ON 10.10. IN OTHER DAYS THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS UNSETTLED.
NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED ACTIVE ON OCTOBER 20
-21 WHEN THE EARTH PASSES THE HIGH-SPEED STREAM FROM NEAREQUATORIAL
CORONAL HOLE. THE PROBABILITY OF THE MAGNETIC STORM ISN'T LOWER THAN
40%. BESIDES, AFTER OCTOBER, 21 MAGNETIC STORMS FROM POSSIBLE FLARE
ACTIVITY OF AR12192 ARE POSSIBLE.
HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA
OF NOAA SWPC http://www.sec.noaa.gov,
OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER -
SIDC, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3,
OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru