Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 05 - 11.10.2015, Forecast on 12 - 19.10.2015, Carrington Rotation 2169 (04,57.10.2015) SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN REMAINED AT THE LOW LEVEL, AND ONLY BY THE AND OF THE PERIOD - THE AVERAGE. ESTIMATED, WEEKLY AVE- RAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYS- TEM WAS Wn=22+13/-11 (W old=14+8/-7). ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK 1-3 SMALL, QUITE SUNSPOT GROUPS. THE MIDDLE AND THE LOW LEVEL OF THE SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY IS EX- PECTED ON THE NEXT WEEK. AS ESTIMATED, THE MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERA- GE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W = 020+20/-10. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE LOW LEVEL AT 11.10 AND VERY LOW - IN OTHER DAYS. THERE WERE THREE SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTION OCCURRENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. ACCORDING TO THE DATA FROM SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS >17 CMEs, ONE WERE "PARTIAL HALO II" TYPE (angular width 90-180 deg.) HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ----------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES to tm te c/p local.Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 DSF to te ËÏÏÒÄÉÎÁÔÙ l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl Aï CME 06.10 >1336 >0611 N17E02L332 7 08.10 >1412 >0722 S38E13L307 14 11.08 0730 ~1000 N17W46L314 15 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON THE LOW AND VERY LOW LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: ------------------------------------------------------------------------ sign N end Å end S end W end EE R G Observatories CH + N25L346 S07L339 S15L011 S00L014 06.10 9 G1 SDO, SOHO... CH + N80L278 N38L233 N05L243 N38L213 10-15.10 4 G1 SDO, SOHO... R - solar rotations; KP - KIT PEAK solar observatory. EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment. G - geoeffectivity in last solar rotation. A-active geomagnetic condition. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ FROM 1.10/0030 UT ON THE EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY +/- EARTH HAS TO PASS 20.10. OCTOBER 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 OCTOBER Wus 015 024 024 024 011 022 036 F10.7 083 081 181 080 081 081 085 èbcg ÷1.1 ÷1.0 á9.4 á9.4 á7.5 á7.4 á9.4 GOES Sp 110 110 110 040 030 050 080 msh N 1 1 1 1 IMF + + + + + + + áóå Å>2 5.6å+7 9.4å+7 4.1å+6 4.8å+8 1.7+9 2.2E+9 2.1E+9 GOES Ie>2 1899 6928 2816 21591 57093 46272 60051 pfu GOES Ap 18 19 74 54 26 13 12 nT BOULDER Dst -65 -27 -126 -72 -58 -46 -34 nT KIOTO Amsc 21 27 33 35 8 12 16 nT IZMIRAN ----------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary orbits in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS BE- GINNING AT 05.10/1130 AND WAS OBSERVED 5 - 6.10. NEXT ELECTRON FLUX, ALREADY EXTREMAL, WAS BEGINNING AT 08.10/0935 UT AND WAS OBSERVED 8-12.10. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY HIGH LEVEL IS EXPECTED 12 - 18.10. GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS REMAINED ACTIVE BY OCTOBER 10. ONE MINOR MAGNE- TIC STORM BEGAN IN THE LATE DAY 4.10 (G1, Ams = 29, dur. =15 hrs.) AC- CORDING TO THE CENTER IN BOULDER DATA. ACCORDING TO IZMIRAN DATA IT WAS 6-hours SUBSTORM INTENSITY (G1). AT THE END OF THE DAY 6.10 BEGI- NNING A LONG MODERATE MAGNETIC STORM (G3, Ams= 43, dur.= 57 h.) ACCOR- DING TO IZMIRAN DATA AND (G3, Ams= 46, dur.=81 h.) ACCORDING TO Center IN BOULDER DATA. Responsibility FOR THESE GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCES STE- EL SOLAR WIND HIGH-STREAMS FROM CORONAL HOLES OF POSITIVE POLARITY AND EJECTION OF SOLAR FILAMENTS (5) 3.10. IN THE REMAINING DAYS OF THE GEO- MAGNETIC CONDITIONS REMAINS UNSETTLED. NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS EXPECTED ACTIVE 12-13.10 WHEN THE EARTH PASSES THE HIGH-SPEED STREAM OF THE SOLAR WIND FROM NOTHERN CORONAL HOLES. PROBABILITY OF THE MAGNETIC STORM LESS THAN 30%. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru