Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 22 - 28.08 2016, Forecast on 29.08 - 05.09.2016, Carrington Rotation 2180, 2181 (30,65.07;26.89.08.2016) SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN REMAINED ON THE MIDDLE LEVEL. THE ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE PERIOD IS W= 028+10/-8 (WÎ= 044+17/-12). ON THE VISIBLE DISK OF THE SUN 2 - 4 SMALL SUNSPOT GROUP. NEXT WEEK IT IS EXPECTED THE MIDDLE AND THE LOW LEVEL AFTER 1.09 OF SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY. THE ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W = 020+10/-10. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE VERY LOW LEVEL. ACCORDING TO THE SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS DATA > 3 CMEs, HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 DSF to te ËÏÏÒÄÉÎÁÔÙ l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl Aï CME/to ---------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW AND LOW LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Space Obser. CH - S05L086 S18L071 S22L083 S10L091 23.08 6 G0 SDO, SOHO.. CH - Pn N45L>225 N15L285 N25L315 01.09 6 G1 SDO, SOHO.. Sch - CH Square in Mm**2 (in square megameters) near the central meri- dian on http://sdowww.lmsal.com/suntoday/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ FROM 26.08/22 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAG- NETIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY -/+ THE EARTH HAS TO PASS 29.08. á÷çõóô 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 á÷çõóô Wus 033 047 043 039 044 052 064 F10.7 080 081 078 079 082 084 085 èbcg A7.7 A9.6 A8.5 A8.7 B1.0 B1.0 B1.1 GOES Sp 080 120 120 120 110 130 200 msh N 2 1 1 IMF + + + +/- - - - áóå Å>2 2.6å+6 2.8å+6 2.6å+6 3.3å+7 3.8E+7 9.0E+7 1.1å+8 GOES Ie>2 293 107 1295 1334 2334 2161 pfu GOES Ap 4 21 19 9 7 5 3 nT BOULDER Dst nô KIOTO Amsc 8 24 14 11 8 7 7 nT IZMIRAN -------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS BE- GINING 25/1900 UT AND OBSERVED 25 - 28.08. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY HIGH LEVEL IS EXPECTED 29 - 30.08. GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION CHANGED FROM UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE. MINOR MAGNE- TIC STORM (G1, Ams=40, dur.=15 h.) ACCORDING TO IZMIRAN DATA AND (G1, Ams=37, dur.=15 h.) ACCORDING TO THE CENTER IN BOULDER, IT IS REGISTE- RED 23 - 24.08 AS RESULT BY THE EARTH PASSING OF THE SOLAR WIND HIGH- SPEED STREAM FROM THE CORONAL HOLE ("-" POLARITY). NEXT WEEK GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS EXPECTED UNSETTLED. HOWEVER 29-30. 08 ACTIVE CONDITNION BECAUSE EARTH's PASSING OF SOLAR WIND HIGH-SPEED STREAM THE BY THE NEXT TRANS-EQUATORIAL CORONAL HOLE ("-"POLARITY) IS POSSIBLE. PROBABILITY OF THE MAGNETIC STORM ~ 20%. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru