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THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON AUGUST 2016 HAS MADE
Waug. = 30.4, 50.7 (н.)
THAT GIVES FOR 85 MONTHS (2016, FEBRUARY) DEVELOPMENT CURRENT 24
CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER
W*feb. = 31.6; 52.6 - in new system
- On July 1, 2015 Centre in Brussels moved to a new system of cal-
culation the relative number of sunspots and practically all of the
values were replaced throughout the numbered series of Wolf numbers
(see link). While there is addictive, I recalculated (0.6) to the
old system, but only W*, and present below the new values for the
minimum and maximum of 24 cycles SA.
THE BEGINNING OF 24 SOLAR CYCLE - I 2009 with W*=1.8; (2.2)
THE TIME OF THE CURRENT CYCLE MAXIMUM - IV 2014, - Wmax = 82;(116.4)
THE END OF 24 SOLAR CYCLE (THE POINT OF MINIMUM) - IV - VI 2020;
THE INTERNATIONAL DAILY VALUE OF RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER FOR 2016,
AUGUST ACCORDING DATA OF 74 SOLAR OBSERVATORIES HAS MADE:
1.. 12 6.. 39 11.. 79 16.. 81 21.. 14 26.. 51 31.. 80
2.. 12 7.. 53 12.. 73 17.. 58 22.. 30 27.. 59
3.. 0m 8.. 81M 13.. 58 18.. 49 23.. 48 28.. 64
4.. 16 9.. 73 14.. 59 19.. 47 24.. 49 29.. 69
5.. 38 10.. 77 15.. 64 20.. 17 25.. 48 30.. 73
THE MONTHLY MEAN OF OBSERVED RADIO FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz ON
2016, AUGUST, AND SMOOTHES ON 2016, FEBRUARY
F10.7 aug. = 85.0 F*10.7 feb.= 98.1
THE MONTHLY MEAN OF GEOMAGNETIC Ap-index ON 2016, AUGUST, AND
SMOOTHES ON 2016, FEBRUARY
Ap aug. = 9.4 Ap* feb.= 12.0
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Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 22 - 28.08 2016,
Forecast on 29.08 - 05.09.2016,
Carrington Rotation 2181 (26.89.08.2016)
SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN REMAINED ON THE MIDDLE LEVEL.
THE ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE
SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE PERIOD
IS W = 039+16/-11 (Wн=062+25/-20). ON THE VISIBLE DISK OF THE SUN
5- 3 SUNSPOT GROUP ONE OF WHICH WAS BIG SIZE(AR12585, N08L221, Sp
=590 msh).
NEXT WEEK IT IS EXPECTED THE MIDDLE AND THE LOW LEVEL. THE ESTI-
MATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT
NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W=
020+10/-10.
FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE VERY LOW LEVEL BUT 30 - 31.08 - THE LOW.
THERE WERE FIVE SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTION OCCURRENCES THROUGH THE PE-
RIOD, ONE 29.08/1947 UT WAS GEOEFFICIENT AND STRENGTHENED THE MAG-
NETIC STORM 1 - 2.09. ACCORDING TO THE SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS
DATA > 15 CMEs, HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
FLARES to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME
X-ray/оp J/m-2
DSF to te координаты l в град. Fl AО CME/to
29.08 >0102 >1330 N12W47L019 22 СМЕ/0224
29.08 1947 2141 N25W34L006 6
03.09 0703 0822 N18E27L237 7
03.09 >1614 >0544 N10W35L300 7
04.09 0300 N13W40L292 4
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NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW AND LOW LEVELS.
ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
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sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Space Obser.
CH + Pn N30L230 N15L304 N23L330 385700 01.09 6 G1 SDO, SOHO..
CH + S10L297 S20L272 S28L277 S12L302 27900 03.09 5 G0 SDO, SOHO..
Sch - CH Square in Mm**2 (in square megameters) near the central meri-
dian on http://sdowww.lmsal.com/suntoday/; n/d - no data;
R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the
Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on
the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition.
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FROM 29.08/1000 UT THE EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY
MAGNETIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY -/+ THE EARTH HAS TO
PASS 7.09.
AUGUST 29 30 31 01 02 03 04 SEPTEMBER
Wus 067 064 091 066 050 046 059
F10.7 088 100 098 095 095 099 097
Хbcg B2.7 B5.0 B4.2 B3.0 B3.4 B2.1 B1.9 GOES
Sp 350 290 575 730 620 690 560 msh
N 2 1 1
IMF -/+ + + + + + + АСЕ
е>2 6.0Е+7 1.6Е+6 2.1Е+6 8.6Е+5 1.8E+8 5.0E+8 1.1Е+9 GOES
Ie>2 1946 154 11398 22115 40294 pfu GOES
Ap 6 17 8 32 41 39 33 nT BOULDER
Dst nТ KIOTO
Amsc 12 25 9 22 28 - 24 nT IZMIRAN
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е>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or-
bits in days according to GOES15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.
THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS BE-
GINING 02/1305 UT AND OBSERVED 02 - 04.09.
THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY
HIGH LEVEL IS EXPECTED 5 - 12.09.
GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION CHANGED FROM UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE. MODERATE MAG-
NETIC STORM (G2, Ams=46, dur.= 30 h.) ACCORDING TO THE CENTER IN BOUL-
DER DATA AND (G1, Ams= 43, dur.= 12 h.) ACCORDING TO IZMIRAN DATA, IT
IS REGISTERED 1 -2.09 AS RESULT BY THE EARTH PASSING OF THE SOLAR WIND
HIGH-SPEED STREAM FROM ENORMOUS NOTHERN POLAR CORONAL HOLE ("+") AND
ARRIVAL OF DISTURBANCE (ICME) FROM LARGE FILAMENT EJECTA 29.08. THE SE-
COND, MORE LONG-LIVED MAGNETIC STORM (G2, Ams= XX, dur=>66 h.) ACCORD-
ING TO THE CENTER IN BOULDER DATA AND (G1, Ams = XX, dur. =>66 h.) BY
IZMIRAN DATA IS REGISTERED 2-4.09 (be continued) AS RESULT OF PASSING
OF SOLAR WIND HIGH-SPEED STREAM BY THE EARTH FROM CORONAL HOLE ("+")
SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE OF THE SUN.
NEXT WEEK 5 - 6.09 INFLUENCE OF HIGH-SPEED STREAMS OF THE SOLAR WIND
FROM CORONAL HOLES WILL CONTINUE AND THE ACTIVE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION
WILL PROCEED, THEN UNSETTLED AND QUIET GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS EXPEC-
TED.
HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE,
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3,
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru