Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 21 - 26.11 2016, Forecast on 27.11 - 04.12.2016, Carrington Rotation 2184 (16,74.11.2016) Earth above the ecliptic +(2.10 - 1,48) deg. (S28-N32 is geoeffectiveness zone) SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY REMAINED AT A VERY LOW LEVEL AND 21 WAS SPOT- LESS DAY. THE ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELA- TIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE PERIOD IS W= 006+3/-6 (Wn= 10+2/-10). ON THE VISIBLE DISK OF THE SUN 0 - 1 QUITE SUNSPOT GROUP. NEXT WEEK IT IS EXPECTED THE VERY LOW AND, POSIBILITY, THE LOW LEVELS. THE ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W=020+10/ -10. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE VERY LOW LEVEL. THERE WERE 3 SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTIONS OCCURRENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. ACCORDING TO THE SOHO AND STE- REO CORONOGRAPHS DATA >5 CMEs. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 DSF to te ËÏÏÒÄÉÎÁÔÙ l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl Aï CME/to 20.11 0753 0820 N14W66L022 5 12610 22.11 >1318 >0643 N09E48L242 7 24.11 >1008 >2229 N15W60L324 5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW AND LOW LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Space Obser. CH + N08L311 S05L282 S22L301 N05L314 24.11 8 1 SDO, SOHO.. CH + Pn N40L281 SDO, SOHO.. CH + N58L284 N45L254 N20L306 N35L326 88700 23.11 8 1 SDO, SOHO.. CH + S12L260 S15L245 S30L268 S25L275 27.11 1 SDO, SOHO.. The first three CH perhaps make one polar; Sch - CH Square in Mm**2 (in square megameters) near the central meri- dian on http://sdowww.lmsal.com/suntoday/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ FROM 20.11/07 UT THE EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNE- TIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY +/- THE EARTH HAS TO PASS 4.11. NOVEMBER 21 22 23 24 25 26 NOVEMBER Wus 000 011 011 012 012 013 F10.7 075 077 078 079 081 081 èbcg A7.1 A9.2 A8.7 A9.8 A9.1 á9.3 GOES Sp 000 120 120 180 230 160 ÍÄÐ N 1 IMF + + + + + + áóå Å>2 3.8å+7 4.4å+6 8.6å+6 9.5E+6 2.7E+8 GOES Ie>2 1664 567 330 541 5557 25245 pfu Ap 7 11 9 26 39 11 Îô BOULDER Dst -21 -34 -39 -24 Îô KIOTO Amsc 7 18 13 29 27 12 Îô IZMIRAN ------------------------------------------------------------------ Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS BE- GINING 13.11/0950 UT AND OBSERVED 13 - 21.11. NEXT INCREASE WAS BE- GINING 25.11/0955 UT AND OBSERVED 26.11/ THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY HIGH LEVEL IS EXPECTED 23 - 29.11. GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION 22-23.11 WAS ACTIVE, AND ON BORDER OF THESE DAYS BY DATA OF IZMIRAN SUBSTORM (G1, dur. 6 h.) WAS MARKED, AND BY DATA OF THE CENTER IN BOULDER THIS SUBSTORM WAS (G1), dur. 6 h. 24 - 25.11 EXTENDED MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G2, Ams= 34, dur.= 36 h.) ACCORDING TO THE CENTER IN BOULDER, AND (G2, Ams= 31, dur.= 33 h.) ACCORDING TO IZMIRAN DATA IS REGISTERED. THESE GEOMAGNETIC DISTUR- BANCES ARE CONNECTED WITH PASSING BY EARTH THROUGH HIGH-SPEED STREAM OF CORONAL HOLE FAMILY CONNECTED WITH POLAR CH "+" POLARITY. GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONON NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED ACTIVE AND UNSETTLED. THE PROBABILITY OF MAGNETIC STORMS LOW. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru