Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 08 - 14.05.2017,
Forecast on 15 - 22.05.2017,
Carrington Rotation 2190 (29,63.04.2017)
Earth above the ecliptic (-3.3, -2,6) deg.
(S34 - N26 is geoeffectiveness zone)
SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY WAS ON VERY LOW LEVEL ALL DAYS AND 9-14.05
WERE SPOTLESS DAYS (36 DAYS ON CURRENT YEAR). THE ESTIMATED, MOST LI-
KELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE IN-
TERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE PERIOD IS W=7+0/-7 (Wn=11+0/-11). ON
THE VISIBLE DISC OF THE SUN ONE SMALL QUITE SUNSPOT GROUP HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED.
NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT THE VERY LOW LEVEL.
THE ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUN-
SPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W
=20+10/-20.
FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE VERY LOW LEVEL ALL DAYS. 1 SOLAR FILAMENT
EJECTION OCCURRENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. ACCORDING TO THE SOHO AND
STEREO CORONOGRAPHS DATA >2 CMEs HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.
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FLARES to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME
X-ray/оp J/m-2
DSF to te координаты l в град. Fl AО CME/to
09.05 0323 0443 S41W55L285 12
14/05 1300 S60E10L153 ? CME/1712
14.05 1840 2043 N10W40L203 14
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NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW LEVELS.
ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
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sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Space Obser.
CH + N45L239 N38L224 N28L236 N40L246 12.05 1 SDO, SOHO...
CH - N02L252 S06L232 N25L249 S05L254 11.05 1 SDO, SOHO...
CH + N17L185 N00L175 S20L195 N10L197 15.05 1 G1 SDO, SOHO...
CH + S22L178 S35L169 S41L175 S32L190 16.05 1 G1 SDO, SOHO...
CH + N35L160 N30L148 N10L171 N12L173 17.05 1 G1 SDO, SOHO...
The last 3 may have one CH;
Sch - CH Square in Mm**2 (in square megameters) near the central meri-
dian on http://sdowww.lmsal.com/suntoday/; n/d - no data;
R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the
Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on
the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition.
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AFTER 4.05/0224 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAG-
NETIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY -/+ THE EARTH HAS EXPECTED
TO PASS 15.05.
МАY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 МАY
Wus 011 000 000 000 000 000 000
F10.7 071 069 069 069 069 070 071
Хbcg A3.6 А3.5 А3.4 А3.5 А3.9 А4.2 А4.1 GOES
Sp 020 000 000 000 000 000 000 msh
N
IMF - - ~ - - - - DSCOVR
е>2 8.3Е+6 9.3Е+6 1.9E+7 1.0E+7 2.0Е+7 3.1Е+7 8.0Е+6 GOES
Ie>2 265 249 513 315 467 642 429 pfu
Ap 6 5 5 6 6 4 10 nТ BOULDER
Dst nТ KIOTO
Amsc 7 7 6 7 9 4 9 nТ IZMIRAN
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е>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or-
bits in days according to GOES15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.
THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS NOT
OBSERVED.
THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY
HIGH LEVEL IS EXPECTED 16 - 22.05.
GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS UNSETTLED AND QUITE.
ON THE NEXT WEEK FROM 16.05 THE EARTH WILL PASS A HIGH-SPEED SOLAR
WIND STREAM FROM TRANS-EQUATORIAL CORONAL HOLE "+" POLARITY THAT GI-
VES THE POSSIBILITY OF DEVELOPING A RECURRENT MAGNETIC STORM (PROBA-
BILITY AT LEAST 60%). ON THE OTHER DAYS THE QUIET AND UNSETTLED GEO-
MAGNETIC CONDITION TO BE EXPECTED.
HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE,
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3,
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru
V. Ishkov