Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 05 - 11.06.2017,
Forecast on 12 - 19.06.2017,
Carrington Rotation 2191 (26,85.05.2017)
Earth above the ecliptic (-1,3; -0,7) deg.
(S35 - N25 is geoeffectiveness zone)
SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY WAS ON THE LOW LEVEL 5 - 6.06 AND ON THE
VERY LOW IN OTHER DAYS. 9 - 11 WERE SPOTLESS DAYS (41 IN CURRENT
YEAR). THE ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELA-
TIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE PERI-
OD IS W=006+3/-6 (Wn=009+0/-9). ON THE VISIBLE DISC OF THE SUN BE-
FOR 8.06 ONE SMALL SUNSPOT GROUP HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.
NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT THE LOW AND VE-
RY LOW LEVELS. THE ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF
THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR
THE NEXT WEEK IS W = 10+10/-10.
FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE LOW LEVEL AT 5 AND 7.06. ONE SOLAR FILA-
MENT EJECTIONS OCCURRENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. ACCORDING TO THE SO-
HO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS DATA >4 CMEs HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.
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FLARES to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME
X-ray/оp J/m-2
DSF to te координаты l в град. Fl AО CME/to
10.06 0636 0756 N08W28L189 10
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NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BEAT THE LOW AND VERY LOW LEVEL.
ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
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sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Space Obser.
СН - N08L109 S20L094 S25L104 S00L119 17.06 11 G0 SDO, SOHO...
Sch - CH Square in Mm**2 (in square megameters) near the central meri-
dian on http://sdowww.lmsal.com/suntoday/; n/d - no data;
R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the
Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on
the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition.
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7.06/16 - 11/1530 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY
MAGNETIC FIELD. BETWEEN 30.05 AND 03.06 THE SIGN OF SECTOR CHANGED. 12-
17.06 THE SIGN OF SECTOR WILL CHANGED. NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY -/+ EARTH
SHOULD BE PASSED 0N 26.06.
JUNE 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 JUNE
Wus 022 018 013 012 000 000 000
F10.7 079 075 076 074 074 075 074
Хbcg A9.0 A9.2 A8.1 А6.0 A5.8 A6.6 A6.6 GOES
Sp 170 130 040 010 000 000 000 msh
N
IMF ~ + +/- - - - -/+ DSCOVR
е>2 1.6Е+7 1.0E+7 1.6E+7 1.6Е+7 1.6Е+7 1.0Е+7 3.9Е+6 GOES
Ie>2 355 221 356 301 261 274 520 pfu
Ap 5 5 4 3 5 3 16 nТ
Dst nТ KIOTO
Amsc 7 5 5 4 4 4 14 nТ IZMIRAN
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е>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or-
bits in days according to GOES15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.
THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT NO OB-
SERVED.
THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY
HIGH LEVEL IS NOT EXPECTED.
GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS QUIET AND UNSETTLED ALL DAYS EXCEPT 11.06
- ACTIVE, NOTING THE 6-hour SUBSTORM (G1) ACCORDING CENTER IN BOUL-
DER AND 9 hour (G0) ACCORDING IZMIRAN DATA.
ON THE NEXT WEEK THE QUIET AND UNSETTLED GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION TO
BE EXPECTED TILL 17.06, WHEN THE EARTH WILL ENTER THE HIGH-SPEED
SOLAR WIND STREAM FROM THE TRANS-EVATORIAL CORONAL HOLE "-" POLARI-
TY. THE PROBABILITY OF THE MAGNETIC STORM IS NOT MORE THAN 10%..
HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE,
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3,
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru
V. Ishkov