Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 04 - 10.09.2017, Forecast on 11 - 17.09.2017, Carrington Rotation 2194 (16,48.08.2017) Earth above the ecliptic (7.23 - 7,24) deg. (S23 - N37 is geoeffectiveness zone) SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY WAS ON THE HIGH LEVEL AT 4, 6-8, 10.09 AND ON THE MIDDLE LEVEL ON OTHER DAYS. THE ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEK- LY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIO- NAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE PERIOD W= 051+22/-28 (Wn = 081+35/-45). ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK 4 - 6 SUNSPOT GROUP, TWO WERE BIG SIZE: (AR 12674, N11L102, Sp max=770 msh) WAS THE QUIET SO AS GROW BY ACCOUNT SLOWLY REVEALED EVOLUTIONARY MAGNETIC FLUXES. THE ACTIVE REGION (AR12673, S08L119, Sp max=1060 msh) IN WHICH 3-7.09 HAVE LED EMER- GENCE OF FAST MAGNETIC FLUXES TO OCCURENCES AT 4-8.09 THREE SERIES OF FLARES OF LARGE AND AVERAGE CLASS (> 30) AMONG WHICH ONE (X9.3) OF THE MOST INTENSIVE X-RAY FLARES (rank 14) FOR ALL HISTORY OF OB- SERVATIONS AND X8.2, WHICH ENTERS IN 20 STRONG FLARES. NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY WILL EXPECTED AT A THE LOW AND VERY LOW LEVELS. MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W = 020+20/-10. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT A HIGH LEVEL AT 4, 6-8, 10.09, THE MIDDLE 5, 9.09 AND THE LOW IN OTHER DAYS. THERE WERE THREE SOLAR FILAMENT E- JECTIONS OCCURRENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. ACCORDING TO THE DATA FROM SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS > 30 CME, THREE WERE THE "HALO" TYPE AND TWO-THE TYPE II (angular with is 90-180 deg.) HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 04.09 0536 0549 0629 S10w04L119 M1.2/1F 1.5E-02 12673 04.09 1511 1530 1542 S06W13l119 M1.5/1N 6.4E-03 12673 04.09 1805 1822 >1831 S07W11L119 M1.0/ 1.1E-02 12673 04.09 1846 1937 >1952 S08W11L119 M1.7/ 4.5E-02 12673 IV/1 CME/1900 04.09 *1959 2002 >2006 S10W11L119 M1.5/3B 4.2E-03 12673 04.09 *2028 2033 >2037 S16W11L119 M5.5/3B 1.8E-02 12673 II/1 CME/2036 04.09 2210 2214 >2219 S09W12L119 M2.1/ 8.4E-03 12673 05.09 0103 0108 >0111 S09W14L119 M4.2/ 1.0E-02 12673 05.09 0342 0351 >0404 S09W15L119 M1.0/ 1.1E-02 12673 05.09 0433 0453 >0507 S11W18L119 M3.2/ 5.1E-02 12673 IV/2 05.09 0633 0640 >0643 s11w18L119 M3.8/ 9.8E-03 12673 05.09 1737 1743 1830 S09W24L119 M2.3/1N 1.2E-02 12673 06.09 *0830 0910 1531 S07W33L119 2÷/X2.2 1.3E-01 12673 CME/1000 06.09 *1153 1202 >1210 S07W33L119 X9.3/2÷ 5.7E-01 12673 II/2 06.09 *1215 1531 S07W33L119 è2/2÷ 12673 06.09 2330 2339 >2344 S08W38L119 M1.2/ 5.1E-03 12673 07.09 0459 0502 0844 S07W45L119 M2.4/1F 7.3E-03 12673 07.09*<0935 0949 >1128 S08W47L119 1N/M1.4 4.0E-03 12673 IV/2 V/2 07.09 *1011 1015 >1018 S07W46L119 M7.3/1N 1.4E-02 12673 IV/2 07.09 1420 1436 >1455 S11W49L119 X1.3/2B 1.2E-01 12673 07.09 2350 2359 0110 S09W50L119 M3.9/2B 3.6E-02 12673 08.09 0219 0224 0301 S09W54l119 M1.3/1F 4.4E-03 12673 08.09 0339 0343 >0347 S06W55L119 M1.2/SF 1.8E-03 12673 08.09 0740 0749 0913 S10W57L119 M8.1/2B 4.7E-02 12673 08.09 1509 1547 >1608 S08W68L119 M2.9/1N 5.3E-02 12673 08.09 2333 2345 >2356 S08W69L119 M2.1/ 1.7E-02 12673 09.09 0414 0428 0502 S13W69L119 M1.1/SF 1.3E-02 12673 09.09 1050 1104 1239 S14W74l119 M3.7/SF 7.1E-02 12673 09.09 2204 2353 >0041 S07W74l119 M1.1/SF 6.9E-02 12673 II/2 10.09 1535 1606 >1631 S08W90L119 X8.2/ 1.4E00 12673 II/1 IV/2 CME/1612 * - X-ray burst in one solar flare event DSF to te ËÏÏÒÄÉÎÁÔÙ l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl Aï CME/to 07.09 >1554 >0536 N33E13L062 8 08.09 >0039 >1356 S40W26L088 15 08.09 >1135 >2230 N18W25L087 5 12674 --------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON THE HIGH AND MIDDLE LEVELS AT THE FIRST DAYS (AR12673 2 days behind W-limb), LOW (preference), AND VERY LOW LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Space Obser. CH - S12L110 S25L070 S30L080 S07L112 08.09 3 SDO, SOHO... CH + N45L031 N40L346 N10L041 N23L054 13.08 4 G1 SDO, SOHO... Sch - CH Square in Mm**2 (in square megameters) near the central meri- dian on http://sdowww.lmsal.com/suntoday/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ 07.09/0745 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNE- TIC FIELD. NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY -/+ EARTH SHOULD BE PASSED 0N 13.09. SEPTEMBER 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 SEPTEMBER Wus 122 122 079 094 089 049 038 F10.7 183 121 133 129 117 107 100 èbcg ó1.6 ó1.2 ó1.9 ó1.2 ÷8.6 ÷6.7 ÷4.9 GOES Sp 1470 1630 1690 1660 1760 1110 420 msh N 2 1 1 IMF ~ + ~ - - - - DSCOVR Å>2 4.5å+8 1.5å+8 3.0E+8 7.2å+7 4.4å+7 3.4å+8 4.9å+8 GOES Ie>2 15826 3776 7224 5443 1941 6358 7875 pfu Ap 17 12 12 46 113 6 8 nô Dst nô KIOTO Amsc 15 9 15 20 84 4 5 nô IZMIRAN AUGUST 28 29 30 31 01 02 07 SEPTEMBER Wus 017 035 042 059 062 071 096 F10.7 082 084 087 092 093 100 120 èbcg ÷2.0 ÷2.2 ÷1.9 B1.8 ÷2.4 ÷2.3 ÷3.3 GOES Sp 100 390 630 950 940 920 150 msh N 2 1 1 1 IMF ~ ~ - ~ ~ - + DSCOVR Å>2 8.1å+6 3.5å+7 2.1E+6 1.8å+6 4.5å+7 2.0å+8 4.0å+8 GOES Ie>2 409 1628 1768 7573 12319 pfu Ap 3 9 4 30 19 18 10 nô Dst nô KIOTO Amsc 4 8 3 26 15 16 8 nô IZMIRAN -------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT HAS BE- GIN 01.09/1350 UT AND 1 - 3.09 WAS OBSERVED. THE MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G0, Ams=25, dur.= 15 h) CENTRE IN BOULDER 6-7.09 IS REGISTERED, HOWEVER ON IZMIRAN DATA AT 6.09 IS NOTED ONLY ACTIVE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION. THIS DISTURBANCE IS CONNECTED WITH AR- RIVAL OF THE IP SHOCKWAVE (SI-6/09/2348 UT) FROM LARGE FLARE CLASS 3B/M5.5 AT 4.09. THE SECOND MAJOR MAGNETIC STORM (G3, Ams= 83, dur. =27 h.) ACCORDING IZMIRAN DATA AND STRONG (G4, Ams= 124, dur.= 27 h) ACCORDING TO THE CENTER IN BOULDER THEIR WAS 7-8.09 AFTER ARRIVAL OF THE IP SHOCKWAVE 7.09/2229 UT (SI-6/09/2304 UT) FROM LARGE FLARE 2B/ X9.3 AT 6.09. 4.09 THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS ACTIVE AND IN OTHER DAYS THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION HAS BEEN UNSETTLED. NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WILL BE UNSETTLED AND QUIET, HOW- EVER 13-14.09 EARTH WILL PASS THE HIGH-SPEED STREAM OF THE SOLAR WIND FROM OF BIG CORONAL HOLE "+" POLARITY ON THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE AND GROWTH OF GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE TO THE MINOR MAGNETIC STORM LEVEL IS POSSIBLE (PROBABILITY TO 40%). HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V. Ishkov