------------------------------------------------------------------- THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON SEPTEMBER 2017 HAS MADE Wjuly = 26.2 43.6(n) THAT GIVES FOR 98 MONTHS (2017, MArCH) DEVELOPMENT CURRENT 24 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER W*march = 15.5; 25.8 - в новой системе W*feb. = 16.0; 26.6 - в новой системе On July 1, 2015 Centre in Brussels moved to a new system of cal- culation the relative number of sunspots and practically all of the values were replaced throughout the numbered series of Wolf numbers (see link). While there is addictive, I recalculated (0.6) to the old system, but only W*, and present below the new values for the minimum and maximum of 24 cycles SA. THE BEGINNING OF 24 SOLAR CYCLE - I 2009 with W*=1.8; (2.2) THE TIME OF THE CURRENT CYCLE MAXIMUM - IV 2014, - Wmax = 82;(116.4) THE END OF 24 SOLAR CYCLE (THE POINT OF MINIMUM) - IV - VI 2020; THE INTERNATIONAL DAILY VALUE OF RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER FOR 2017, SEPTEMBER ACCORDING DATA OF 78 SOLAR OBSERVATORIES HAS MADE: 1.. 59 6.. 99 11.. 31 16.. 13 21.. 22 26.. 39 2.. 56 7.. 97 12.. 11m 17.. 14 22.. 21 27.. 37 3..106 8.. 89 13.. 12 18.. 13 23.. 12 28.. 42 4..113 9.. 64 14.. 12 19.. 11m 24.. 23 29.. 43 5..119M 10.. 40 15.. 12 20.. 22 25.. 36 30.. 40 THE MONTHLY MEAN OF OBSERVED RADIO FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz ON 2017, SEPTEMBER, AND SMOOTHES ON 2017, MARCH F10.7sep. = 92.0 F*10.7 mar.= 78.6 THE MONTHLY MEAN OF GEOMAGNETIC Ap-index ON 2017, SEPTEMBER, AND SMOOTHES ON 2016, MARCH Ap sep. = 19.0 Ap*mar. = 11.5 ------------------------------------------------------------------- Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 25.09 - 01.10.2017, Forecast on 02 - 09.10.2017, Carrington Rotation 2195 (12,73.09.2017) Earth above the ecliptic (6.04 - 6,7) deg. (S23 - N37 is geoeffectiveness zone) SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY WAS ON THE MIDDLE LEVEL. THE ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE PERIOD W=022+02/-02 (Wn=036 +02/-03). ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THREE SMALL AND QUITE SUNSPOT GROUPS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. NEXT WEEK LEVEL OF SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ON THE MID- DLE AND LOW LEVELS. MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATI- VE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W=030+10/-20. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE LOW LEVEL 27.01 AND VERY LOW AT THE OTHER DAYS. THERE WAS ONE SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTIONS OCCURRENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. ACCORDING TO THE DATA FROM SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS >4 CME HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/оp J/m-2 DSF to te координаты l в град. Fl AО CME/to 25.09 2011 2310 S07E61l179 10 12683 CME/2236 --------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY WILL BE AT THE VERY LOW AND LOW LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Space Obser. CH + N40L239 N40L205 S05L239 N17L269 26.09 4 G1 SDO, SOHO... CH - N10L109 S20L079 S32L101 N02L116 04.10 4 G0 SDO, SOHO... Sch - CH Square in Mm**2 (in square megameters) near the central meri- dian on http://sdowww.lmsal.com/suntoday/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ 15.09/03 UT THE EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNE- TIC FIELD. NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY -/+ EARTH SHOULD BE PASSED 0N 5.10. SEPTEMBER 25 26 27 28 29 30 01 SEPTEMBER Wus 036 040 035 040 039 038 034 F10.7 090 091 091 091 090 089 086 Хbcg В1.1 В1.3 A8.1 A9.1 A8.1 A7.3 A5.4 GOES Sp 560 460 530 480 460 440 430 msh N IMF + + + + + + + DSCOVR е>2 2.4Е+6 3.7Е+6 1.9E+6 9.4Е+7 1.2Е+9 1.4Е+9 4.8Е+8 GOES Ie>2 1050 115 126 3706 38412 52054 14651 pfu Ap 4 4 38 61 11 14 11 nТ Dst nТ KIOTO Amsc 4 4 33 29 15 21 14 nТ IZMIRAN --------------------------------------------------------------------- е>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT HAS BE- GIN 15.09/0830 UT AND 15-25.09 WAS OBSERVED. NEXT FLUX HAS BEGIN 28. 09/0830 UT AND 28.09 - 01.10 WAS OBSERVED. NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS OR- BIT IS EXPECTED 02 - 8.10. THE STRONG MAGNETIC STORM (G3, Ams=59, dur.= 42 h.) ACCORDING TO THE CENTRE IN BOULDER DATA AND (G2, Ams=35, dur.=39 h.) ACCORDING TO THE WAS REGISTERED 27-28.09. SUCH INTENSITY THE MAGNETIC STORM CAN'T BE A CONSEQUENCE ONLY OF PASSING OF THE HIGH-SPEED STREAM FROM CORONAL HOLE THAT WE OBSERVED, AND THERE HAD TO BE A ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCE FROM THE FLARE EVENT (DSF), HOWEVER IT HASN'T COME INTO THE VIEW OF OBSERVERS - WE WILL UNDERSTAND. IN OTHER DAYS THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDI- TION WAS UNSETTLED AND QUIET, BUT 30.09 - ACTIVE. NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WILL BE UNSETTLED AND QUIET ALL DAYS, EXCEPT 4.10 WHEN THE EARTH WILL PASSED THE HIGH-SPEED STREAM FROM THE TRANS-EQUATORIAL CORONAL HOLE. PROBABILITY OF THE MAGNETIC STORM ~ 40%. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V. Ishkov