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THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON NOVEMBER 2017 HAS MADE
Wnov. = 3.4 5.7(n)
THAT GIVES FOR 98 MONTHS (2017, APRIL) DEVELOPMENT CURRENT 24 CYCLE
OF SOLAR ACTIVITY THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER
W*ÍÁy = 14.0; 23.1 - new system
W*apr. = 14.9; 24.9 - new system
On July 1, 2015 Centre in Brussels moved to a new system of cal-
culation the relative number of sunspots and practically all of the
values were replaced throughout the numbered series of Wolf numbers
(see link). While there is addictive, I recalculated (0.6) to the
old system, but only W*, and present below the new values for the
minimum and maximum of 24 cycles SA.
THE BEGINNING OF 24 SOLAR CYCLE - I 2009 with W*=1.8; (2.2)
THE TIME OF THE CURRENT CYCLE MAXIMUM - IV 2014, - Wmax = 82;(116.4)
THE END OF 24 SOLAR CYCLE (THE POINT OF MINIMUM) - IV - VI 2020;
THE INTERNATIONAL DAILY VALUE OF RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER FOR 2017,
NOVEMBER ACCORDING DATA OF 74 SOLAR OBSERVATORIES HAS MADE:
1.. 0m 6.. 0m 11.. 0m 16.. 16 21.. 0m 26.. 17M
2.. 0m 7.. 0m 12.. 0m 17.. 25 22.. 0m 27.. 16
3.. 0m 8.. 0m 13.. 0m 18.. 15 23.. 0m 28.. 15
4.. 0m 9.. 0m 14.. 13 19.. 0m 24.. 0m 29.. 13
5.. 0m 10.. 0m 15.. 15 20.. 0m 25.. 15 30.. 11
THE MONTHLY MEAN OF OBSERVED RADIO FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz ON
2017, NOVEMBER, AND SMOOTHES ON 2017, MAY
F10.7nov. = 72.0 F*10.7may = 77.7
THE MONTHLY MEAN OF GEOMAGNETIC Ap-index ON 2017, NOVEMBER, AND
SMOOTHES ON 2016, MAY
Ap nov. = 9.5 Ap*may = 11.3
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Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 27.11 - 03.12.2017,
Forecast on 04 - 11.12.2017,
Carrington Rotation 2197, 2198 (03,61.12; 30,94.12.2017)
Earth above the ecliptic (2.5 - 1.9) deg.
(S30 - N25 is geoeffectiveness zone)
SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY WAS ON THE VERY LOW LEVEL. THE SUN WAS
SPOTLESS ON 1-3.11 (90 SPOTLESS DAYS IN THE CURRENT YEAR). THE
ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUN-
SPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE PERIOD
W= 003+5/-3 (Wn= 005+7/-5). ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK ONE SMALL
AND QUITE SUNSPOT GROUP HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.
NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY WITH HIGH PROBABILITY
WILL BE ON THE VERY LOW AND LOW LEVELS WITH ONE SMALL STEADY SUN-
SPOTS GROUP WHICH COMES 11.12 TO THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK. MOST LI-
KELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE
INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W=010+10/-10.
THE FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE VERY LOW LEVEL. NO EJECTION OF
SOLAR FILAMENT WAS OBSERVED. ACCORDING TO DATA FROM SOHO AND STE-
REO CORONOGRAPHS >9 CME HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.
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FLARES to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME
X-ray/Ïp J/m-2
DSF to te localization l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl AR CME/to
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NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW LEVEL.
ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
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sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Space Obser.
CH + N50L053 N48L057 N25L034 N20L039 31600 05.12 5 G1 SDO, SOHO...
CH + N50L347 N48L007 N12L302 N18L299 17900 11.12 3 SDO, SOHO...
CH - S05L268 S28L298 S30L270 S15L263 14.12 6 SDO, SOHO...
Sch - CH Square in Mm**2 (in square megameters) near the central meri-
dian on http://sdowww.lmsal.com/suntoday/; n/d - no data;
R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the
Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on
the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition.
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AFTER 04.12/0115 UT THE EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAG-
NETIC FIELD. NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY +/- EARTH SHOULD BE PASSED 0N 25.12.
DECEMBER 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 DECEMBER
Wus 000 000 013 011 000 000 011
F10.7 068 068 068 068 070 071 072
èbcg á3.1 á3.1 A3.3 A3.5 A3.3 A3.7 A4.5 GOES
Sp 000 000 010 010 000 000 010 msh
N 1 1
IMF -/+ + + + + + + DSCOVR
Å>2 4.6E+6 5.3E+6 7.3E+7 1.3å+8 1.4å+8 1.4å+8 1.3E+8 GOES
Ie>2 175 365 3260 3752 3375 4184 2473 pfu
Ap 5 29 10 10 5 3 2 nô
Dst nô KIOTO
Amsc 16 27 17 11 4 5 4 nô IZMIRAN
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Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or-
bits in days according to GOES15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.
THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT HAS BE-
GUN 6/1340 UT AND 6-10.12 WERE OBSERVED.
NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS OR-
BIT IS EXPECTED 11 - 14.12.
AS EXPECTED, THE LONG MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G1, Ams=28, dur. =39 h.)
ACCORDING TO THE CENTER IN BOULDER IT WAS OCCURENCE ON DECEMBER 4-6,
HOWEVER ACCORDING TO IZMIRAN DATA THIS DISTURBANCE HAS BROKEN UP TO
THREE INTERVALS: SUBSTORM (G1, dur.<9 h.) 4 - 5.12, MINOR MAGNETIC
STORM (G1, Ams= 38, dur.= 12 h.) 5-6.12, AND 6-HOUR SUBSTORM (G1) AT
THE END OF THE DAY 6.12. IN OTHER DAYS GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS UN-
SETTLED AND QUIET.
NEXT WEEK, THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WILL BE UNSETTLED AND QUIET.
HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE,
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3,
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru
V. Ishkov