Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 05 - 11.11.2018,
Forecast on 12 - 18.11.2018,
Carrington Rotation 2210(26,10.2018)
Earth out of ecliptic (+5.52 - +5.32) deg.
(S23 - N24 is zone of geoeffectiveness)
THE SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN HAVE REMAINED AT THE VERY
LOW. THE SUNSPOT OBSERVED 11.11 ONLY (SPOTLESS - 190 DAYS IN THIS
YEAR). ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE
SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD W= 001
+0/-1 (Wn = 001+0/-1). THERE IS ONE SMALL SUNSPOT GROUP HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED.
NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY WILL STAY AT A VERY LOW LE-
VEL. LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN
THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W= 010+10/-10.
THE FLARE ACTIVITY WAS ON THE VERY LOW LEVEL. ONE CORONAL MASS EJEC-
TIONS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.
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FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES
to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME
X-ray/Ïp J/m-2
DSF to te localization l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl AR CME/to
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NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW LEVELS.
ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
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sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Space Obser.
CH - N18L188 N05L193 N00L195 N10L178 1.4% 9.10 2 G0 SOHO,SDO...
Sch - CH Square in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on
https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations;
EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment.
G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes.
A-active geomagnetic condition.
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AFTER 8.11/1823 UT EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNE-
TIC FIELD, BUT THE SIGN OF THE SECTOR IS VERY UNSTABLE. NEXT STABLE
SECTOR BOUNDARY -/+ THE EARTH MUST PASS 9.11.
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NOVEMBER 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 NOVEMBER
Wus 000 000 000 000 000 000 011
F10.7 068 069 069 070 069 069 070
èbcg <á1.0 <á1.0 <á1.0 <á1.0 <á1.0 <á1.0 <á1.0 GOES
Sp 000 000 000 000 000 000 010 msh
N
IMF + + +/~ +/- - - - DSCOVR
Å>2 5.5E+7 2.2E+8 2.9E+8 1.3å+8 1.3å+8 3.1E+6 - GOES
Ie>2 pfu
Ap 35 10 10 10 10 13 7 nô
Dst nô KIOTO
Amsc 26 5 8 11 16 15 8 nô IZMIRAN
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Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or-
bits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.
THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BEGUN
5.11/1635 UT AND 5 - 11.11 HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.
NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS
ORBIT IS EXPECTED 14 - 19.11.
MODERATE MAGNETIC STORM WHICH HAS BEGUN IN THE SECOND HALF 4.11 (G2,
Ams=50, dur.=18 h.) ACCORDING TO THE CENTER IN BOULDER AND (G1, Ams=
44, dur.=15 h.) ACCORDING TO IZMIRAN DATA, THERE WAS BY THE EXPECTED
THE REACTION OF THE MAGNETOSPHERE TO PASSING OF SOLAR PLASMA HIGH-
SPEED STREAM FROM TRANS-EQUATORIAL "+" POLARITY CORONAL HOLE. THE
FOLLOWING HIGH-SPEED STREAM ALREADY FROM THE CORONAL HOLE "-" POLA-
RITY HAS CAUSED 9 -10.11 ONLY INTENSIVE (G1) SUBSTORM (dur 9 h.) AC-
CORDING TO IZMIRAN DATA AND PULSE SEPARATE (~3 h) SUBSTORM ACCORDING
TO THE CENTER IN BOULDER. IN OTHER DAYS THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION RE-
MAINED UNSETTLED.
THE NEXT WEEK IS MOST PROBABILITY OF QUIET AND UNSETTLED GEOMAGNE-
TIC CONDITION.
HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE,
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3,
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru
V. Ishkov