Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 10 - 17.02.2019,
Forecast on 18 - 25.02.2019,
Carrington Rotation 2213, 2214 (16,83.01; 12,5.03.2019)
Earth out of ecliptic (-6.5 - -6.8) deg.
(S30 - N20 is zone of geoeffectiveness)
THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS AT THE VERY LOW LEVEL: THE
SUN WAS SPOTLESS (32 SPOTLESS DAYS AT 2019). ESTIMATED, MOST LIKE-
LY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE IN-
TERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD W= 000 (Wn= 000).
NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN AT VERY LOW
LEVEL. LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER
IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W=010+10/-10.
THE FLARE ACTIVITY WAS ON THE VERY LOW LEVEL, BUT THREE CLASS A1-
A3 FLARES MARKED IN DIFFERENT PLACES OF THE EASTERN HEMISPHERE. NO
FILAMENT EJECTION AND NO CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.
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FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES
to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME
X-ray/Ïp J/m-2
DSF to te localization l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl AR CME/to
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NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW LEVELS.
ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
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sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Space Obser.
CH + N20L335 S05L340 S40L330 S20L310 6.8% 19.02 R8* G1 SDO, SOHO...
* may be R1 (it appearance at 13.02);
Sch - CH Square in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on
https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations;
EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment.
G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes.
A-active geomagnetic condition.
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AFTER 30.01/0155 UT EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNE-
TIC FIELD. 14/2230-16/1650 WAS REGISTERED "+" SECTOR. NEXT SECTOR BOUNDA-
RY -/+ THE EARTH MUST PASS 21.02.2019.
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FEBRUARY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 FEBRUARY
Wus 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000
F10.7 070 070 070 070 071 071 071 070
èbcg <á1.0 <á1.0 <á1.0 <á1.0 <á1.0 <á1.0 <á1.0 <á1.0 GOES
Sp 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 msh
N
IMF - - - - -/+ + +/- - DSCOVR
Å>2 1.3E+8 7.5E+7 1.7E+7 1.3å+7 3.9å+7 4.5E+7 4.4å+7 2.8å+7 GOES
Ie>2 2734 2407 442 555 1271 983 904 659 pfu
Ap 6 9 6 14 10 4 2 3 nô
Dst nô KIOTO
Amsc 8 11 5 10 8 4 4 5 nô IZMIRAN
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Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or-
bits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.
THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BEGAN
01.02/2230 UT AND 2-11.02 HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. NEXT FLUX BEGAN 14.02/
1755 UT AND OBSERVED 14.02 ONLY.
NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS OR-
BIT IS NOT EXPECTED.
THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION AT MIDDLE LATITUDES REMAINED QUIET AND UN-
SETTLED.
THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITITON IS EXPECTED QUITE AND UNSETTLED.
HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE,
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3,
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru
V. Ishkov