Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 4 - 10.03.2019, Forecast on 11 - 17.03.2019, Carrington Rotation 2214, 2215 (12,5.03; 8,8.04.2019) Earth out of ecliptic (-7.2 - -7.4) deg. (S30 - N20 is zone of geoeffectiveness) THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS AT THE VERY LOW LEVEL BUT ONLY 4.03 THE SUN WAS SPOTLESS (47 SPOTLESS DAYS AT 2019). ESTIMA- TED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUM- BER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD W =8+2/-8 (Wn=12 +4/-12). ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISC ONE SMALL, BUT SUFFICIENTS ACTI- VITY FOR THE PHASE OF MINIMUM SUNSPOT GROUP. NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN AT VERY LOW LEVEL AND THE SUN IS EXPECTED SPOTLESS AFTER 13.03. LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W=010+10/-10. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT LOW LEVEL ON 8.03 AND VERY LOW LEVEL IN OTHER DAYS. NO FILAMENT EJECTION AND 6 CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS (8.03 - 5) TWO OF WHICH HAVE BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH SOLAR FLARE C1.8/SF, ACCOMPA- NYNG TYPE II RADIO BURST HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 DSF to te localization l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl AR CME/to -------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: ----------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Space Obser. CH* - N10L017 S22L037 S25L035 S15L002 12.8% 12.03 R1 - SDO, SOHO.. CH* - S18L012 S30L025 S45L017 S20L007 12.8% 12.03 R1 - SDO, SOHO.. * Perhaps one CH; the area - total; Sch - CH Square in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ----------------------------------------------------------------------- AFTER 27.02/08 UT EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNE- TIC FIELD. NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY -/+ THE EARTH MUST PASS 23.03.2019. ----------------------------------------------------------------------- MARCH 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 MARCH Wus 000 014 017 014 011 011 011 F10.7 071 072 073 071 072 071 071 èbcg <á1.0 <á1.0 <á1.0 <á1.0 <á1.0 <á1.0 <á1.0 GOES Sp 000 020 030 020 010 010 010 msh N 1 IMF - - - - - - - DSCOVR Å>2 9.8E+8 6.4E+8 4.2E+8 1.9å+8 9.1å+7 1.2E+8 1.0å+8 GOES Ie>2 44100 14432 14710 7880 2558 62290 2257 pfu Ap 7 5 7 8 5 5 3 nô Dst nô KIOTO Amsc 6 6 8 8 5 6 3 nô IZMIRAN ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. HIGH THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BE- GUN AT 28.02/1710 UT AND 28.02 - 10.03 HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS OR- BIT IS EXPECTED 11 - 12.03. GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION AT MEDIUM LATITUDES UP REMAINS QUIET AND UNSET- TLED. NEXT PERIOD THE MOST PROBABLE QUIET AND UNSETTLED GEOMAGNETIC CONDI- TION IS EXPECTED. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V. Ishkov