Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 20 - 26.05.2019,
Forecast on 27.05 - 02.06.2019,
Carrington Rotation 2217 (06,0.05.2019)
Earth out of ecliptic (-4.4 - -4.1) deg.
(S25 - N20 is zone of geoeffectiveness)
THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS AT THE VERY LOW LEVEL
AND AFTER 19.05 THE SOLAR DISC IS SPOTLESS (82 SPOTLESS DAYS
IN CURRENT YEAR). ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VA-
LUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYS-
TEM (old) FOR PERIOD W = 0 (Wn = 0).
NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY WAS ON VERY LOW LEVEL,
AND THE SUN EXPECTED BE SPOTLESS. LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE
OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM
(old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W=010+10/-10.
FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE VERY LOW LEVEL. NO FILAMENT EJECTI-
ONS AND MORE 2 CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.
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FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES
to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME
X-ray/Ïp J/m-2
DSF to te localization l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl AR CME/to
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NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW LEVEL.
ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
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sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Space Obser.
CH - S05L214 S12L222 S25L220 S15L202 <5,9% 21.05 R6 - SDO, SOHO...
CH - N10L073 N08L083 S12L078 S11L063 ~3,0% 27.05 R2 - SDO, SOHO...
CH - N05L080 S20L085 S30L075 S20L062 ~3,0% 30.05 R2 - SDO, SOHO...
Both CH "friable" and with high probability not geoeffective;
Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on
https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations;
EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment.
G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes.
A-active geomagnetic condition.
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AFTER 23.04/22 UT EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNE-
TIC FIELD, BUT THE SIGN "+" OBSERVED 21/0140 - 22/0730 UT. NEXT SECTOR
BOUNDARY -/+ THE EARTH MUST PASS 17.06.
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íáê 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 íáê
Wus 000 000 000 000 000 000 000
F10.7 069 068 067 067 066 067 068
èbcg á6.7 á6.3 á6.3 á6.2 á6.3 á6.3 á6.3 GOES
Sp 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 msh
N
IMF - -/+ +/- - ~ ~ -/~ DSCOVR
Å>2 3.4E+6 3.7E+6 5.8E+6 6.0+6 3.7å+6 4.5E+6 5.0å+6 GOES
Ie>2 579 112 166 166 130 131 117 pfu
Ap 6 4 4 4 5 4 5 nô
Dst nô KIOTO
Amsc 8 3 5 6 6 4 4 nô IZMIRAN
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Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or-
bits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.
THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT NOT OB
SERVED.
NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS OR-
BIT IS NOT EXPECTED.
THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION AT MIDDLE LATITUDES REMAINED QUIET AND UN-
SETTLED.
NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS MOST PROBABLE QUIET AND UNSET-
TLED BUT WITH FEW CHANCES FOR ISOLATED ACTIVE LEVEL 27-30/05 DUE TO
EFFECT OF CORONAL HOLES.
HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE,
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3,
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru
V. Ishkov