Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 09 - 15.09.2019, Forecast on 16 - 23.09.2019, Carrington Rotation 2021, 2222 (22,9.08; 19,16.09.2019) Earth out of ecliptic (6.8 - 7.15) deg. (S25 - N25 is zone of geoeffectiveness) THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED VERY LOW WITH A SPOTLESS VISIBLE DISK (181 SPOTLESS DAYS IN THE YEAR). ESTI- MATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUN- SPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD W=0 (Wn = 0). NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY WAS ON VERY LOW LE- VEL. LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUM- BER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W= 010+10/-10. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE VERY LOW LEVEL. ONE SOLAR FLARE "A" CLASS (12.09), ONE SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTION (11.09) AND ONE CO- RONAL MASS EJECTIONS (11.08) HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 DSF to te localization l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl AR CME/to 05.09 >0043 >1328 S54W26L136 5 -------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW LEVEL. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: ----------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Space Obser. CH + N05L050 S12L065 S19L060 S00L050 >1% 15-16.09 2 - SDO Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- SOLAR WIND PARAMETERS REFLECTED A NOMINAL SOLAR WIND ENVIRONEMENT. AFTER 04.08/0855 UT THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELD SIGN IS UNSTABLE AND OFTEN CHANGES, BUT IN THE AVERAGE ARE REMAINED "+". IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE EARTH HAS PASSED THE SECTOR BOUNDARY +/- 15.09/1710 UT, BUT NO CONFIRMATION YET. THE NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY THE EARTH MUST TO PASS 16.09. ----------------------------------------------------------------------- SEPTEMBER 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 SEPTEMBER Wus 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 F10.7 069 070 068 069 068 069 068 èbcg á3.8 á4.0 á4.0 á3.9 A3.7 A3.5 á3.5 GOES Sp 020 000 000 000 000 000 000 msh N IMF + + ~ + + + ++/- DSCOVR Å>2 1.8E+8 3.1E+8 3.4E+8 1.5E+8 9.6E+7 1.6E+8 1.0å+8 GOES Ie>2 9362 8013 6722 5279 2656 3102 5476 pfu Ap 14 4 5 7 8 6 10 nô Dst nô KIOTO Amsc 14 4 5 6 7 5 9 nô IZMIRAN ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BEGUN AT 6.08/1015 UT AND 2-16.09 HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS OR- BIT IS NOT EXPECTED. THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION AT MIDDLE LATITUDES REMAINED QUIET AND UN- SETTLED. THE NEXT WEEK IS MOST LIKELY TO BE QUITE AND UNSETTLED GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V. Ishkov