Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 23 - 29.09.2019,
Forecast on 30.09 - 06.10.2019,
Carrington Rotation 2222 (19,16.09.2019)
Earth out of ecliptic (7.15 - 6.9) deg.
(S20 - N30 is zone of geoeffectiveness)
THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED VERY LOW WITH A
SPOTLESS VISIBLE DISK (198 SPOTLESS DAYS IN THE YEAR - 73%).
ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE
SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD
W=0 (Wn = 0).
NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY WAS ON VERY LOW LE-
VEL. LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUM-
BER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W=
010+10/-10.
FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE VERY LOW LEVEL. NO SOLAR FILAMENT
EJECTION AND NO CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.
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FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES
to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME
X-ray/Ïp J/m-2
DSF to te localization l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl AR CME/to
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NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW LEVEL.
ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
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sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Space Obser.
CH - N11L005 N09L007 S12L347 S10L345 1.6% 23.09 5 - SDO, SOHO...
CH + N35L344 N20L345 S08L244 N15L309 5.6% 27-28.09 5 G2 SDO, SOHO...
Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on
https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations;
EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment.
G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes.
A-active geomagnetic condition.
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SOLAR WIND PARAMETERS BEFORE 27.09 REFLECTED A NOMINAL SOLAR WIND ENVI-
RONEMENT.
23.09/09 UT THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELD SIGN IS UNSTABLE, BUT IN
THE AVERAGE ARE REMAINED "-". THE NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY THE EARTH MUST TO
PASS 24.09.
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SEPTEMBER 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 SEPTEMBER
Wus 000 000 000 000 000 000 000
F10.7 066 067 068 067 066 067 067
èbcg á3.8 á3.5 á3.8 á3.6 A3.6 A4.7 á4.7 GOES
Sp 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 msh
N
IMF -/+ + + + + + + DSCOVR
Å>2 4.1E+6 3.1E+6 3.0E+6 3.4E+6 4.9E+6 4.0E+8 1.6å+9 GOES
Ie>2 169 16380 49260 pfu
Ap 2 13 4 4 21 27 13 nô
Dst -49 -43 -30 nô KIOTO
Amsc 4 11 5 4 26 24 17 nô IZMIRAN
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Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or-
bits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.
THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BEGUN
AT 31.08/1540 UT AND 31.08-18.09 HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.
NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS OR-
BIT IS NOT EXPECTED.
MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G1, Ap =36, dur.=33 h.) ACCORDING TO THE CENTER
DATA IN THE BOULDER AND (G2, Ap= 34, dur. = 33 h). ACCORDING TO THE
DATA ON 27 - 28.09, WHEN THE EARTH WAS PASSED BY A HIGH-SPEED STREAM
SUN WIND FROM THE EQUATORIAL CORONAL HOLE. ACCORDING IZMIRAN DATA SUB-
STORM INTENSITY (G1) 9 h. DURATION HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. IN OTHER DAYS
THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION REMAINED QUIET AND UNSETTLED.
NEXT WEEK THE MOST PROBABLY QUIET AND UNSETTLED GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION.
HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE,
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3,
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru
V. Ishkov