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THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON JANUARY 2021 HAS MADE
Wjan. = 6.2 10.4(n)
THAT GIVES FOR 6 MONTH (2020,JULY) OF DEVELOPMENT CURRENT 25 SOLAR
CYCLE THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER
W*july = 5.3 8.8 - in new system
W*june = 4.7 7.8 - in new system
On July 1, 2015 Centre in Brussels moved to a new system of calcu-
lation the relative number of sunspots and practically all of the
values were replaced throughout the numbered series of Wolf numbers
(see link). While there is addictive, I recalculated (0.6) to the
old system, but only W*, and present below the new values for the
minimum and maximum of 25 cycles SA.
THE BEGINNING OF 25 SOLAR CYCLE - I 2020 with W*=1.3; (1.8n)
MAXIMUM OF THE CURRENT 25 CYCLE - VI 2024 - Wmax =90-100; (150n)
THE END OF 25 SOLAR CYCLE (THE POINT OF MINIMUM) - I - VI 2031;
Provisional daily International Sunspot Numbers for January 2021
(67 observatories):
1.. 23 6.. 0 11.. 0 16.. 13 21.. 25 26.. 17 31..0
2.. 17 7.. 0 12.. 0 17.. 14 22.. 35M 27.. 20
3.. 0 8.. 0 13.. 0 18.. 13 23.. 32 28.. 6
4.. 0 9.. 0 14.. 3 19.. 20 24.. 23 29.. 0
5.. 0 10.. 0 15.. 15 20.. 20 25.. 26 30.. 0
Minimum : 0 on 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 29, 30, 31
[The daily value W in old system close to true (in a minimum phase)
can be received, multiplying by k = 0.6].
THE MONTHLY MEAN OF OBSERVED RADIO FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz) ON
JANUARY 2021, AND SMOOTHES ON 2020, JULY 2020
F10.7jan. = ÈÈÈ F*10.7july= ÈÈÈ
THE MONTHLY MEAN OF GEOMAGNETIC Ap-index ON JANUARY 2021,
AND SMOOTHES ON 2020, JULY 2020
Ap jan.= 5 Ap*july = xxx
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Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 25 - 31.01.2021,
Forecast on 01 - 08.02.2021,
Carrington Rotation 2240 (22,27.01.2021)
Earth out of ecliptic (-1.8 - -2.4) deg.
(S33 - N29 is zone of geoeffectiveness)
THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED ON VERY LOW LEVEL.
AFTER 27.01 SOLAR DISC WAS SPOTLESS (14 DAYS IN CURRENT YEAR).
ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE SUNSPOT NUM-
BER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD W=7+10\-7 (Wn=
11+15/-11). ON VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THERE ARE TWO SMALL SUNSPOT
GROUPS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.
NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT ACTIVITY WILL BE ON VERY LOW LEVEL. WEEKLY
AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATI-
ONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR NEXT WEEK IS W=010+10/-10.
FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT LOW LEVEL. 10 SOLAR FLARE OF X-RAY CLASS
"B", ONE SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTA (27.01) AND 8 CORONAL MASS EJEC-
TIONS (25, 27, 29, 30.01) HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.
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FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES
to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME
X-ray/Ïp J/m-2
DSF to te localization l deg. Fl AR CME/to
27.01 0515 0539 S31E17L312 7
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NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW LEVEL.
ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
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sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Sp/craft
CH - S05L240 S20L270 S40L276 S08L235 1.9 1.02 2 SOHO...
óî + S10L210 S30L192 S32L202 S15L209 1.8 6.02 2 SOHO...
* - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h. only.
Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on
https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations;
EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment.
G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes.
A-active geomagnetic condition.
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AFTER 31.01/10 UT, THE EARTH IS IN THE "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY
MAGNETIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY "+/-" IT CAN BE EXPECT 3.
02.
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JANUARY 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 JANUARY
Wus 026 023 026 000 000 000 000
F10.7 077 076 076 076 076 074 073
èbcg A4.8 A2.9 A1.3 á1.6 á2.6 A1.9 A1.7 GOES
Sp 040 010 020 000 000 000 000 msh
N 1
IMF - - ~ - - - -/+ DSCOVR
Å>2 1.6E+6 2.1å+7 1.1E+8 1.6E+8 1.7E+8 1.7å+8 2.8E+8 GOES
Ie>2 202 867 3242 3214 3847 3135 5068 pfu
Ap 17 12 11 5 3 2 1 nô
Dst nô KIOTO
Amsc 16 12 10 3 3 2 2 nô IZMIRAN
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Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or-
bits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.
THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BEGAN AT
27/1220 AND OBSERVED 27-31.01.
NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS
ORBIT IS EXPECTED 1-8.02.
THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONT WAS ACTIVE 25-26.01 WHEN THE CENTER IN
BOULDER NOTED TWO SUBSTORM (duration 6 h.) OF INTENSITY (GO), AND
IZMIRAN, ONE - (G1). THIS IS THE WHOLE RESPONSE OF THE MAGNETOSPHE-
RE TO THE PASSAGE OF THE EARTH OF A HIGH-VELOCITY STREAM OF SOLAR
WIND FROM THE CORONAL HOLE "+" POLARITY OF THE SOLAR SOUTHERN HEMI-
SPHERE. ON THE OTHER DAYS, A QUITE AND UNSETTLED GEOMAGNETIC CONDI-
TION HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.
IN THE NEXT WEEK THE MOST PROBABLE IS EXPECTED A QUITE AND UNSETT-
LED GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION.
HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE,
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3,
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru
V. Ishkov