------------------------------------------------------------------- THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON JANUARY 2021 HAS MADE Wjan. = 6.2 10.4(n) THAT GIVES FOR 6 MONTH (2020,JULY) OF DEVELOPMENT CURRENT 25 SOLAR CYCLE THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER W*july = 5.3 8.8 - in new system W*june = 4.7 7.8 - in new system On July 1, 2015 Centre in Brussels moved to a new system of calcu- lation the relative number of sunspots and practically all of the values were replaced throughout the numbered series of Wolf numbers (see link). While there is addictive, I recalculated (0.6) to the old system, but only W*, and present below the new values for the minimum and maximum of 25 cycles SA. THE BEGINNING OF 25 SOLAR CYCLE - I 2020 with W*=1.3; (1.8n) MAXIMUM OF THE CURRENT 25 CYCLE - VI 2024 - Wmax =90-100; (150n) THE END OF 25 SOLAR CYCLE (THE POINT OF MINIMUM) - I - VI 2031; Provisional daily International Sunspot Numbers for January 2021 (67 observatories): 1.. 23 6.. 0 11.. 0 16.. 13 21.. 25 26.. 17 31..0 2.. 17 7.. 0 12.. 0 17.. 14 22.. 35M 27.. 20 3.. 0 8.. 0 13.. 0 18.. 13 23.. 32 28.. 6 4.. 0 9.. 0 14.. 3 19.. 20 24.. 23 29.. 0 5.. 0 10.. 0 15.. 15 20.. 20 25.. 26 30.. 0 Minimum : 0 on 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 29, 30, 31 [The daily value W in old system close to true (in a minimum phase) can be received, multiplying by k = 0.6]. THE MONTHLY MEAN OF OBSERVED RADIO FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz) ON JANUARY 2021, AND SMOOTHES ON 2020, JULY 2020 F10.7jan. = 76.7 F*10.7july= 74.0 THE MONTHLY MEAN OF GEOMAGNETIC Ap-index ON JANUARY 2021, AND SMOOTHES ON 2020, JULY 2020 Ap jan.= 4.7 Ap*july = xxx --------------------------------------------------------------------- Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 01 - 07.02.2021, Forecast on 08 - 15.02.2021, Carrington Rotation 2240 (22,27.01.2021) Earth out of ecliptic (-3.4 - -3.9) deg. (S33 - N29 is zone of geoeffectiveness) THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED ON VERY LOW LEVEL. 1 AND AFTER 3.02 SOLAR DISC WAS SPOTLESS (21 DAYS IN CURRENT YEAR). ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE SUN- SPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD W=2+5 \-2 (Wn= 3+9/-3). ON VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THERE WAS 1 SMALL SUN- SPOT GROUP HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT ACTIVITY WILL BE ON VERY LOW LEVEL. WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATI- ONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR NEXT WEEK IS W=010+10/-10. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT LOW LEVEL. 1 SOLAR FLARE OF X-RAY CLASS "B", 7 - CLASS "A", THREE SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTA (2-4.02) AND 2 CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS (3, 4.02) HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 DSF to te localization l deg. Fl AR CME/to 02.02 >1437 >0639 N53W10L201 16 03.02 0130 S52w26L172 ? 04.02 0215 0639 N63E29L214 9 -------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW LEVEL. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Sp/craft CH - S05L240 S20L270 S40L276 S08L235 1.9 1.02 2 SOHO... óî + S10L210 S30L192 S32L202 S15L209 1.8 6.02 2 SOHO... * - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h. only. Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- AFTER 6.02/17 UT THE EARTH IS IN THE "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETA- RY MAGNETIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY "+/-" IT CAN BE EX- PECT 11.02. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FEBRUARY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 FEBRUARY Wus 000 012 011 000 000 000 000 F10.7 074 073 074 074 073 073 073 èbcg A1.0 A1.2 A1.0 <á1.0 <á1.0 2 4.8E+7 3.7å+6 8.9E+6 6.7E+6 1.1E+7 1.7å+7 5.4E+6 GOES Ie>2 2547 350 537 342 406 1263 301 pfu Ap 5 17 14 7 6 7 21 nô Dst nô KIOTO Amsc 5 14 10 6 7 8 14 nô IZMIRAN ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BEGAN AT 06/11455 AND OBSERVED TO 6-7.02. NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT IS NOT EXPECTED. THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS ACTIVE 2.02 WHEN THE CENTER IN BOULDER REGISTERED MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G0, Ams= 25, dur.=15 h) DUT ACCORDING OF IZMIRAN DATA THERE WERE TWO SUBSTORM (duration 6 h.) OF INTENSITY (GO). THIS IS THE WHOLE RESPONSE OF THE MAGNE- TOSPHERE TO THE PASSAGE THE EARTH OF SOLAR WIND HIGH-VELOCITY STREAM FROM THE CORONAL HOLE "-" POLARITY OF THE SOUTHERN HEMI- SPHERE. THE FOLLOWING DISTURBANCE OF THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS OBSERVED on 6-7.02, WHEN THE EARTH CROSSED THE INTERPLANETA- RY SECTOR BOUNDARY (SSBC) AND ENTERED THE HIGH-SPEED FLOW OF THE CORONAL HOLE OF THE "+" POLARITY OF SOUTH HEMISPHER. ACCORDING IZMIRAN DATA THERE WERE TWO SUBSTORMS (G0) DURING 3 h., BUT THE CENTER IN BULDER NOTES THE MINOR MAGNENIC STORM (G0, Ams=25, dur. =15 h). ON THE OTHER DAYS, AN UNSETTLED GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION HA- VE BEEN OBSERVED. IN THE NEXT WEEK THE MOST PROBABLE IS EXPECTED A QUITE AND UNSETT- LED GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V. Ishkov