------------------------------------------------------------------- THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON FEBRUARY 2021 HAS MADE Wfeb. = 5.0 8.3(n) THAT GIVES FOR 6 MONTH (2020, AUGUST) OF DEVELOPMENT CURRENT 25 SOLAR CYCLE THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER W*july = 5.5 9.3 - in new system W*june = 4.7 7.8 - in new system On July 1, 2015 Centre in Brussels moved to a new system of calcu- lation the relative number of sunspots and practically all of the values were replaced throughout the numbered series of Wolf numbers (see link). While there is addictive, I recalculated (0.6) to the old system, but only W*, and present below the new values for the minimum and maximum of 25 cycles SA. THE BEGINNING OF 25 SOLAR CYCLE - I 2020 with W*=1.3; (1.8n) MAXIMUM OF THE CURRENT 25 CYCLE - VI 2024 - Wmax =90-100; (150n) THE END OF 25 SOLAR CYCLE (THE POINT OF MINIMUM) - I - VI 2031; Provisional daily International Sunspot Numbers for Febuary 2021 (68 observatories): 1.. 0 6.. 0 11.. 0 16.. 0 21.. 10 26.. 19 2.. 9 7.. 0 12.. 0 17.. 0 22.. 16 27.. 17 3.. 7 8.. 3 13.. 0 18.. 10 23.. 35 28.. 13 4.. 0 9.. 2 14.. 0 19.. 9 24.. 38M 5.. 0 10.. 0 15.. 0 20.. 9 25.. 34 Minimum : 0 on 1, 4, 5, 6, 7, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17 [The daily value W in old system close to true (in a minimum phase) can be received, multiplying by k = 0.6]. THE MONTHLY MEAN OF OBSERVED RADIO FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz) ON FEBUARY 2021, AND SMOOTHES ON 2020, AUGUST 2020 F10.7feb. = 71.7 F*10.7aug.= 74.3 THE MONTHLY MEAN OF GEOMAGNETIC Ap-index ON FEBUARY 2021, AND SMOOTHES ON 2021, AUGUST 2020 Ap feb.= 9.5 Ap*aug = xxx --------------------------------------------------------------------- Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 01 - 07.03.2021, Forecast on 08 - 15.03.2021, Carrington Rotation 2241 (18,62.02.2021) Earth out of ecliptic (-4.9 - -5.3) deg. (S33 - N29 is zone of geoeffectiveness) THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED ON VERY LOW LEVEL BUT THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISC WAS SPOTLESS 01.03 ONLY. ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD W=12+6/-12 (Wn=20+10/-20). ON VISIBLE SOLAR DISC THERE ARE 2 SMALL SUNSPOT GROUP HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT ACTIVITY WILL BE ON VERY LOW LEVEL. WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATI- ONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR NEXT WEEK IS W=015+10/-10. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT LOW LEVEL. 1 SOLAR FLARE OF X-RAY CLASS "C", 29-CLASS "B", AND 8 CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS (1-3, 5.03) HA- VE BEEN OBSERVED. ------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 DSF to te localization l deg. Fl AR CME/to 06.03 >0045 >1401 S29W45L104 6 12806 -------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW LEVEL. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Sp/craft CH - S08L252 S40L245 S42L248 S30L270 ~2.5% 01.03 1 - SOHO, ACE... CH* + N08L174 S08L188 S25L156 S15L148 ~2% 04.03 3 - SOHO, ACE... * - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h. only. Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- AFTER 6.03/0213 UT THE EARTH IS IN THE "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLA- NETARY MAGNETIC FIELD. THE SECTOR "-" OBSERVED BETWEEN 1-5.03. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY "+/-" IT CAN BE EXPECT 11.03. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- MARCH 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 íáRCH Wus 000 028 030 032 014 023 014 F10.7 071 075 084 081 073 077 078 èbcg A3.9 A2.3 A3.9 á2.0 á2.8 A2.1 A4.2 GOES Sp 000 030 060 040 010 020 010 msh N 2 1 IMF - - - - - -/+ + DSCOVR Å>2 2.3E+6 5.8å+6 1.4E+8 2.3E+8 2.3E+8 4.8å+7 3.4E+7 GOES Ie>2 1074 605 4797 6227 6209 3065 1419 pfu Ap 26 20 23 11 11 8 16 nô Dst nô KIOTO Amsc 23 23 17 9 7 no data nô IZMIRAN ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BEGAN 21.02/0535 AND OBSERVED 21.02 - 1.03, EXEPT 25.02. NEXT FLUX BEGAN 3.03/0750 UT AND OBSERVED 3-7.03 NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT IS NOT EXPECTED. MODERATE MAGNETIC STORM (G1, Ams=41, dur.= 18 hrs.) ACCORDING TO THE BOULDER CENTER DATA AND (G1, Ams=34, dur.= 12 hrs.) ACCORDING TO THE IZMIRAN DATA WAS REGISTERED 2-3.03. INTENSIVE SUBSTORM 9 hrs (G2) IN BULDER AND (G1 - 6 hrs.) IN IZMIRAN IN THE FIRST HALF 1.03 AS A RESULT OF THE EARTH PASSING HIGH-SPEED STREAM FROM THE CORONAL HOLE "-" POLARITY OF THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE. IN THE OTHER DAYS, THE GEO- MAGNETIC CONDITION WAS ACTIVE AND UNSETTLED. IN THE NEXT WEEK THE MOST PROBABLE IS EXPECTED A QUITE AND UNSET- TLED GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V. Ishkov