------------------------------------------------------------------- THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON JULY 2021 HAS MADE Wjuly = 21 34.4(in new system) THAT GIVES FOR 13 MONTH (2021, JANUARY) OF DEVELOPMENT CURRENT 25 SOLAR CYCLE THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER W*jan. = 10.4 17.3 - × ÎÏ×ÏÊ ÓÉÓÔÅÍÅ W*dec. = 9 15.3 - × ÎÏ×ÏÊ ÓÉÓÔÅÍÅ On July 1, 2015 Centre in Brussels moved to a new system of calcu- lation the relative number of sunspots and practically all of the values were replaced throughout the numbered series of Wolf numbers (see link). While there is addictive, I recalculated (0.6) to the old system, but only W*, and present below the new values for the minimum and maximum of 25 cycles SA. THE BEGINNING OF 25 SOLAR CYCLE - I 2020 with W*=1.3; (1.8n) MAXIMUM OF THE CURRENT 25 CYCLE - VI 2024 - Wmax =90-100; (150n) THE END OF 25 SOLAR CYCLE (THE POINT OF MINIMUM) - I - VI 2031; Provisional daily International Sunspot Numbers for JULY 2021 (69 observatories): 1.. 57 6.. 50 11.. 22 16.. 35 21.. 72 26.. 31 31.. 2 2.. 61 7.. 20 12.. 23 17.. 50 22.. 75M 27.. 21 3.. 61 8.. 17 13.. 19 18.. 48 23.. 55 28.. 7 4.. 51 9.. 12 14.. 29 19.. 49 24.. 31 29.. 4 5.. 44 10.. 16 15.. 22 20.. 46 25.. 36 30.. 0m [The daily value W in old system close to true (in a minimum phase) can be received, multiplying by k = 0.6]. THE MONTHLY MEAN OF OBSERVED RADIO FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz) ON JULY 2021, AND SMOOTHES ON 2021, JANUARY F10.7july = 81.0 F*10.7jan.= 77.3 THE MONTHLY MEAN OF GEOMAGNETIC Ap-index ON JULY 2021, AND SMOOTHES ON 2021, JANUARY Ap july= 5.6 Ap*jan. = xxx --------------------------------------------------------------------- Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 26.07 - 01.08.2021, Forecast on 02 - 09.08.2021, Carrington Rotation 2246; 2247 (1,1.08; 28,33.08.2021) Earth out of ecliptic (2.5 - 2.9) deg. (S30 - N32 is zone of geoeffectiveness) THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS ON LOW AND VERY LOW LE- VELS. AFTER 28.07 THE SUN WAS SPOTLESS (50 DAYS AT 2021). THE ESTIMATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE SUNSPOT NUM- BER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD IS W =27+25/ -13 (Wn= 45+41/-21). 2 SMALL QUITE SUNSPOT GROUPS ON THE VISIB- LE SOLAR DISK, 1 ON SOUTH AND 1 ON NORTH HEMISPHERE HAS BEEN OBSERVED. NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT ACTIVITY WILL BE ON VERY LOW AND LEVEL. WEEK- LY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNA- TIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR NEXT WEEK IS W=020+10/-20. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT LOW AND VERY LOW LEVELS. 17 SOLAR FLARE OF X-RAY CLASS "B", FOUR SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTA AND 12 CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS (19-25.07) HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 DSF to te localization l deg. Fl AR CME/to 27.07 0200-0400 S13E15L071 ~5 CME/0312 28.07 0739-0941 S13W01L042 10 B? CME/1012 28.07 0739 0941 N33E04L047 12 30.07 0800 0912 SW >10 CME/0912 -------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW, LOW LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Spacecraft CH + Pn N14L128 N12L126 N32L100 6.4% 27.07 2 - SDO, SOHO... * - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h. only. Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- AFTER 31.07/1840 UT THE EARTH IS IN THE "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELD. FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY "-/+" IT CAN BE EXPECT 15.08. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- JULY 26 27 28 29 30 31 01 JULY Wus 025 025 000 000 000 000 000 F10.7 081 080 079 076 076 076 075 èbcg á8.0 á7.1 á5.8 á4.7 á3.9 A3.8 A3.7 GOES Sp 020 000 000 000 000 000 000 msh N IMF + + + + + +/- - DSCOVR Å>2 1.2å+7 1.2E+6 1.5å+6 6.9E+6 1.9E+7 9.5E+6 1.2å+7 GOES Ie>2 484 410 263 383 779 379 483 pfu Ap 4 6 13 8 6 6 4 nô Dst nô KIOTO Amsc 4 6 12 10 7 7 4 nô IZMIRAN ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV RECURRENT ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT NO OBSERVED. NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT IS NOT EXPECTED - NO GEOEFFECTIVE CORONAL HOLES. THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS QUIET AND UNSETTLED. THE NEXT WEEK IS MOST PROBABLE A QUIET AND UNSETTLED GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION ALL DAYS. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V. Ishkov