25 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY, THE BRANCH OF RISE: THE PHASE OF MINIMUM Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 06 - 12.12.2021, Forecast on 13 - 20.12.2021 Carrington Rotation 2251 (18,18.11.2021) Earth out of ecliptic (-4.4 - -4.9) deg. (S32 - N27 is zone of geoeffectiveness) THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS ON LOW AND VERY LOW LEVELS. ESTIMATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD IS W = 4+4/-4 (Wn= 6+7/-6). ON VISIBLE SOLAR DISK AT THE 2 SMALL SUNSPOT GROUPS ON S-HEMISPHERE HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT ACTIVITY WILL BE ON LOW FND VERY LOW LE- VELS. WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR NEXT WEEK IS W=030+20 /-10. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT LOW AND VERY LOW LEVELS. 3 FLARE X- RAY CLASS "C", 14-CLASS "B", 14- CLASS "A", AND 14 CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS (6-11.12) HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 DSF (EPL) to te localization l deg. Fl AR CME/to -------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Spacecraft óH + N30L128 N25L121 N20L131 N25L141 1.3% 8.12 1 - SDO, HINOTORI CH - S23L033 S32L053 S45L053 S24L031 2% 15.12 2 - SDO, HINOTORI * - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h. only. Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 12.12/0220 UT THE EARTH IS IN THE "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAG- NETIC FIELD. 10/14-12/1220UT OBSERVED "-" SECTOR. FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUN- DARY "+/-" IT CAN BE EXPECT 14.12. ----------------------------------------------------------------------- DECEMBER 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 DECEMBER Wus 014 013 000 000 000 000 012 F10.7 080 079 077 077 076 076 080 èbcg á5.8 á1.0 <á1.0 <á1.0 A1.3 á3.2 á4.1 GOES Sp 010 010 000 000 000 000 030 msh N 1 IMF + + + + +/- - -/+ DSCOVR Å>2 5.0å+7 3.5E+0 4.3E+7 5.6E+7 9.0å+7 1.2E+7 1.2E+7 GOES Ie>2 2152 950 980 1280 2745 1184 571 pfu Ap 7 5 5 3 4 5 3 nô Dst -38 -43 -56 -40 -28 9 nô KIOTO Amsc 7 5 5 2 4 3 2 IZMIRAN ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BEGUN AT 2.12/1130 UT AND OBSERVED 2-6.12. NEXT FLUX BEGUN AT 9.12/1345 UT AND OBSERVED 9-11.12 NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT IS NOT EXPECTED. THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDINION REMAINED UNSETTLED AND QUITE. THE NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDINION IS EXPECT QUITE AND UNSET- TLED. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V. Ishkov