25 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY, THE BRANCH OF RISE: THE PHASE OF MINIMUM ------------------------------------------------------------------- SOLAR CYCLE DATA AND FORECAST AT PRESENT THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON DECEMBER 2021 HAS MADE Wdec. =40.6 67.6(in new system) THAT GIVES FOR 18 MONTH (2021, JUNE) OF DEVELOPMENT CURRENT 25 SOLAR CYCLE THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER W*apr. = 16.7 27.8 - in new system W*may = 15.5 25.9 - in new system On July 1, 2015 Centre in Brussels moved to a new system of calcu- lation the relative number of sunspots and practically all of the values were replaced throughout the numbered series of Wolf numbers (see link). While there is addictive, I recalculated (0.6) to the old system, but only W*, and present below the new values for the minimum and maximum of 25 cycles SA. THE BEGINNING OF 25 SOLAR CYCLE - I 2020 with W*=1.3; (1.8n) MAXIMUM OF THE CURRENT 25 CYCLE - VI 2024 - Wmax =90-100; (150n) THE END OF 25 SOLAR CYCLE (THE POINT OF MINIMUM) - I - VI 2031; Provisional daily International Sunspot Numbers for December 2021 (70 observatories): 1.. 43 6.. 13 11.. 0m 16..107 21..133 26.. 97 31.. 62 2.. 37 7.. 12 12.. 13 17..111 22..152M 27..109 3.. 30 8.. 6 13.. 25 18..110 23..145 28..102 4.. 19 9.. 0m 14.. 44 19..120 24..114 29.. 87 5.. 25 10.. 0m 15.. 78 20..120 25..112 30.. 70 [The daily value W in old system close to true (in a minimum phase) can be received, multiplying by k = 0.6]. THE MONTHLY MEAN OF OBSERVED RADIO FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz) ON DECEMBER 2021, AND SMOOTHES ON 2021,JUNE F10.7dec. = 102.9 F*10.7june= 80.8 THE MONTHLY MEAN OF GEOMAGNETIC Ap-index ON DECEMBER 2021, AND SMOOTHES ON 2021, JUNE Ap dec.= 6.5 Ap*june = xxx --------------------------------------------------------------------- Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 20 - 26.12.2021, Forecast on 27.12.2021 - 03.01.2022 Carrington Rotation 2252 (15,49.12.2021) Earth out of ecliptic (-5.7 - -6.5) deg. (S32 - N27 is zone of geoeffectiveness) THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS ON MIDDLE AND LOW LEVELS. ESTIMATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD IS W= 41+23/-26 (Wn =68+39/-43). ON VISIBLE SOLAR DISK UP 6 SMALL SUNSPOT GROUPS AND ONE MIDDLE SIZE HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT ACTIVITY WILL BE ON LOW AND, MAY BE, MIDDLE LE- VEL. WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR NEXT WEEK IS W=100+40/-40. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT MIDDLE (28.12, 1.01), LOW AND VERY LOW LE- VELS. 3 FLARE X-RAY CLASS "M", 24- CLASS "C" AND 49- CLASS-"B", 2 SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTION AND 18 CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS (27.12-2.01) HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 28.12 0350 0401 0410 M1.8/ 1.1E-02 12918 28.12 1559 1611 1620 N20W28L209 M1.6/SF 1.1E-02 12918 01.01 0707 0742 0730 N20W76L209 M1.1/SF 1.4E-02 12918 DSF (EPL) to te localization l deg. Fl AR CME/to 31.12 0130 SW >5 31.12 0600 S45W75L073 >10 CME -------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT LOW AND VERY LOW LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Spacecraft CH - N10L320 S05L340 S15L317 S00L305 <8% 22.12 1 - SDO, HINOTORI * - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h. only. Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 26.12/1310 UT THE EARTH IS IN THE "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAG- NETIC FIELD. FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY "+/-" IT CAN BE EXPECT 07.01. ----------------------------------------------------------------------- DECEMBER 27 28 29 30 31 01 02 ñî÷áòø Wus 085 107 079 077 053 052 025 F10.7 124 121 111 102 102 094 089 èbcg B4.7 B5.2 B3.0 B2.4 B2.6 ÷2.4 ÷1.4 GOES Sp 740 860 840 1050 480 440 340 msh N 1 1 IMF + + + + + + + DSCOVR Å>2 5.1å+7 5.9E+6 1.8E+7 3.7E+6 6.5å+6 4.0E+6 5.5E+6 GOES Ie>2 3210 284 935 324 340 375 280 pfu Ap 10 8 7 8 4 11 10 nô Dst nô KIOTO Amsc 9 6 8 7 5 9 10 IZMIRAN ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BEGUN 22.12/1705 UT AND OBSERVED 22-27.12. NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRO- NOUS ORBIT IS NOT EXPECTED. THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION REMAINED QUIET AND UNSETTLED THE NEXT WEEK IS MOST PROBABLE A QUIET AND UNSETTLED GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V. Ishkov