25 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY, THE BRANCH OF RISE: THE PHASE OF MINIMUM Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 18 - 24.04.2022, Forecast on 25.04 - 02.05.2022 Carrington Rotations 2556, 2257 (3,81.04; 01,1.05. 2022) Earth out of ecliptic (1.6 - 2.0) deg. (S35 - N25 is zone of geoeffectiveness) THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS ON MIDLLE LEVELS. ESTIMATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTER- NATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD IS W=59+12/-18 (Wn=98+21/-30). THE- RE ARE ON VISIBLE SOLAR DISK UP TO 7 SUNSPOT GROUPS, TWO WERE THE BIG SIZE AND 5 WAS ON SOUTH HEMISPHERE, HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT ACTIVITY EXPECTED AT MIDDLE LEVEL. WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEK IS W=070+50/-10. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE HIGH, MIDDLE AND LOW LEVELS. 1 FLARES X- RAY WAS CLASS "X", 12 -CLASS "M", 69 -CLASS "C", TWO SOLAR FILAMENTS EJECTION AND 24 CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS (18-24), ONE OF WHICH WAS OF TYPE II (angular width 90-180 deg), HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES to tm te localization Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 18.04 0737 0748 0754 S30W78L248 M1.3/SF 5.8E-03 12992 18.04 1004 1027 1049 N21E64L111 M1.1 2.0E-02 12993 18.04 1712 1724 1731 S29W84l248 M1.9/SF 9.2E-03 12992 19.04 0443 0450 0459 N22E47L111 M1.0 6.9E-03 12993 19.04 2039 2049 2058 S29W87L248 M3.7 2.3E-02 12992 19.04 2109 2113 2155 N16E48L111 M1.6/SN 7.3E-03 12994 20.04 0107 0114 0120 S32W86L248 M1.2 6.0E-03 12992 20.04 0120 0144 0219 S33W86L248 M7.2/1N 6.4E-02 12992 20.04 0341 0357 0404 S34W86L248 X2.2/SF 1.0E-01 12992 CME 20.04 1224 1252 1302 S34W86L248 M1.9 1.9E-02 12992 21.04 0147 0159 0246 N22E23L111 M9.6/1N 4.6E-02 12993 II/2|1132 IV/1 CME 22.04 0452 0528 0514 N19E10L111 M1.1 1.7E-02 12994 22.04 1316 1330 1351 N21E00L111 M3.4/2B 9.8E-03 12993 II/1|383 DSF (EPL) to te localization l deg. Fl AR CME/to 19.04 1809 1940 SW >10 24.04 >0014 >1306 S09W25L046 17 ------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT MIDDLE AND, MAY BE, HIGH LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Spacecraft CH - N10L103 S28L125 S43L125 S1OL096 4.6% 29.04 2 MMS SDO HINOTORI * - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h. only. Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- AFTER 13.04/0130 UT THE EARTH IS IN THE "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANE- TARY MAGNETIC FIELD. FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY "+/-" IT CAN BE EXPECT 27.04. ----------------------------------------------------------------------- APRIL 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 APRIL Wus 079 068 080 119 101 118 112 F10.7 135 135 160 164 103 160 159 èbcg ó1.3 ó1.3 ÷1.6 ó1.5 ÷8.0 ÷8.1 B7.6 GOES Sp 1390 1820 1400 1760 1590 1430 1600 msh N 1 1 IMF + + + + + + + DSCOVR Å>2 5.7å+7 9.2E+7 7.4E+7 3.4E+6 9.0å+6 1.1E+7 8.9E+6 GOES Ie>2 1646 2218 2029 1365 345 533 358 pfu Ap 8 7 9 11 7 13 5 nô Dst nô KIOTO Amsc 9 8 7 8 6 11 5 IZMIRAN ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm*2/s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BEGUN 16/1655 UT AND OBSERVED 16 - 21.04. NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT IS EXPECTED AFTER 29.04. THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS UNSETTLED. NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WILL BE CHANGING FROM UNSENNLED TO ACTIVE. SPORADIC MAGNETIC STORMS UP TO MAJOR ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 25.04. RECURRENT MINOR MAGNETIC STORM POSSIBLE 29.04, WHEN THE EARTH ENTERS THE HIGH-SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAM FROM THE EQUATORIAL CORONAL HOLE. THE PROBA- BILITY OF A MINOR MAGNETIC STORM IS ABOUT 20%. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V. Ishkov