25 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY, THE BRANCH OF RISE: THE PHASE OF RISE Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 08 - 14.08.2022 Forecast on 05 - 21.07.2022 Carrington Rotations 2260, 2261 (21,7.07; 17,9.08.2022) Earth out of ecliptic (-4.6 - -4.2) deg. (S30 - N30 is zone of geoeffectiveness) THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY CHANGED FROM LOW TO MIDDLE LE- VELS. ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD IS W = 048+22/ -13 (Wn=076+40/-18). ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISC OBSERVED TO 8 SMALL SUNSPOT GROUPS, FIVE LOCALIZED ON THE SOUTH HEMISPHERE. NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT ACTIVITY EXPECTED ON THE MIDDLE AND LOW LEVELS. WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTER- NATIONAL SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEK IS W=080+40/-50. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE LOW AND VERY LOW LEVELS. 43 X-RAY FLARES WERE CLASS "C", 49 - CLASS "B", 4 EJECTA OF SOLAR FILAMENT AND 34 CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES to tm te localization Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 DSF (EPL) to te localization l deg. Fl AR CME/to 08.08 >0106 >1319 N42E01L161 59 11.08 2034 N21W54L031 9 CME/2124 14.08 0320 0415 S28E20L040 C1.1/SF 13078 14.08 1137 N22W14L031 10 CME/1228/pH ------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY WILL BE AT LOW, VERY LOW AND, MAY BE, MIDDLE LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Spacecraft CH + N15L145 N02L138 S10L127 S00L125 3.0% 7-8.08 2 G1 SDO HINOTORY CH + N10L141 S02L149 S18L147 N08L131 1.4% 9-10.08 2 G1 SDO HINOTORY CH - N42L110 N40L122 S10L130 N20L057 5.8% 17-19.08 2 G1 SDO HINOTORY * - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h. only. Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FROM 6.08/2235 UT THE EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELDS. NEXT SECTOR BORDER "+/-" IT CAN EXPECTED 16.08. ---------------------------------------------------------------- AUGUST 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 AUGUST Wus 063 058 060 058 097 116 104 F10.7 113 109 108 115 120 124 120 èbcg ÷4.2 ÷3.5 ÷2.5 ÷2.8 ÷3.2 ÷5.5 ÷4.3 GOES Sp 520 390 390 440 540 790 670 msh N 1 1 2 1 IMF = + + + + + + DSCOVR Å>2 4.6å+7 2.1E+8 3.2E+8 4.4E+8 2.1E+8 2.5E+8 1.2E+8 GOES Ie>2 1641 7176 6675 14595 3335 6242 3058 pfu Ap 31 19 12 16 7 10 7 nô Dst -52 -38 -22 037 -25 nô KIOTO Amsc 23 14 15 20 5 11 7 nô IZMIRAN ------------------------------------------------------------------ Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm*2/s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BEGUN AT 8.08/1645 UT AND OBSERVED 8-14.07. NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS OR- BIT IS EXPECTED 15-22.08. A MINOR MAGNETIC STORM STARTED IN THE AFTER HALF of 7.08 (G2, Ams=40 dur.=27 h), FOLLOWED 6 h AFTER BY THE NEXT STORM (G0, Ams=25, d=27 h) ACCORDING OF THE CENTER IN BOULDER DATA. ACCORDING TO THE IZMIRAN DA- TA, IT WAS ONE MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G1, Ams=30, duration=24 h) AND A 6-hour SUBSTORM OF INTENSITY G0. THESE GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBATIONS ARE CAUSED BY THE EARTH'S PASSING OF HIGH-SPEED STREAMS FROM TWO SUCCESSI- VE EQUATORIAL "+" POLARITY CORONAL HOLES. 11.08 BOTH THE CENTER IN BO- ULDER (G0 - 6 h) AND IZMIRAN (G1 - 9 h) MADE A SUBSTORM FROM SOLAR FI- LAMENT EJECTION 7.09. ON THE OTHER DAYS THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WERE UNSETTLED AND ACTIVE. NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS EXPECTED THE MAGNETIC STORM 17- 18.08, WHEN THE EARTH WILL PASS HIGH SPEED STREAM OF SOLAR WIND FROM EXTENDED N40-S20 TRANS-EQUATORIAL CORONAL HOLE "-" POLARITY. AT THE SA- ME TIME THE DISTURBATION FROM THE SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTION 14.08 WILL COME TO THE EARTH. PROBABILITY OF A MINOR MAGNETIC STORM ON 17 - 18.09 IS ABOUT 60%. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V.Ishkov