25 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY,
THE BRANCH OF RISE: THE PHASE OF RISE
THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON AUGUST 2022 HAS MADE
Wjuly = 45.2 75.4(in new system)
THAT GIVES FOR 26 MONTH (2022, FEBRUARY) OF DEVELOPMENT CURRENT
25 SOLAR CYCLE THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER
W*feb.= 38.9 64.8 - in new system
W*jan.= 36 60.1 - in new system
On July 1, 2015 Centre in Brussels moved to a new system of calcu-
lation the relative number of sunspots and practically all of the
values were replaced throughout the numbered series of Wolf numbers
(see link). While there is addictive, I recalculated (0.6) to the
old system, but only W*, and present below the new values for the
minimum and maximum of 25 cycles SA.
THE BEGINNING OF 25 SOLAR CYCLE - I 2020 with W*=1.3; (1.8n)
THE PHASE OF MINIMUM OF SOLAR CYCLE 25 - 2020 01 - 2021 10
MAXIMUM OF THE CURRENT 25 CYCLE - VI 2024 - Wmax =90-100; (150n)
THE END OF 25 SOLAR CYCLE (THE POINT OF MINIMUM) - I - VI 2031;
PROVISIONAL DAILY INTERNATIONAL SUNSPOT NUMDER FOR AUGUST 2022
(68 observatories):
1.. 26m 6.. 72 11.. 72 16..123M 21.. 58 26.. 95 31.. 44
2.. 34 7.. 86 12..103 17..108 22.. 75 27.. 94
3.. 37 8.. 80 13..111 18.. 89 23.. 51 28.. 85
4.. 42 9.. 62 14..111 19.. 85 24.. 60 29.. 71
5.. 71 10.. 65 15..111 20.. 74 25.. 93 30.. 49
[The daily value W in old system close to true (in a minimum phase)
can be received, multiplying by k = 0.6].
THE MONTHLY MEAN OF OBSERVED RADIO FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz) ON
AUGUST 2022, AND SMOOTHES ON 2022, FEBRUARY
F10.7aug. = 114.2 F*10.7feb.= 108.6
THE MONTHLY MEAN OF GEOMAGNETIC Ap-index ON AUGUST 2022,
AND SMOOTHES ON 2021, FEBRUARY
Ap aug. = 11 Ap*feb. = xxx
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25 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY,
THE BRANCH OF RISE: THE PHASE OF RISE
Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 05 - 11.09.2022
Forecast on 12 - 19.09.2022
Carrington Rotations 2261, 2262 (17,9.08; 14,7.09.2022)
Earth out of ecliptic (-2.9 - -2.3) deg.
(S30 - N30 is zone of geoeffectiveness)
THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY CHANGED FROM MIDDLE TO LOW LE-
VELS. ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE SUNSPOT
NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD IS W=051+22/-
17 (Wn= 84+38/-28). ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISC OBSERVED TO 9 SUN-
SPOT GROUPS, ONE OF THEM WAS BIG AND 5 LOCALIZED ON THE NORTH HE-
MISPHERE.
NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT ACTIVITY EXPECTED ON THE MIDDLE AND LOW LEVELS.
WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTER-
NATIONAL SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEK IS W=090+40/-40.
FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE HIGH, MIDDLE AND LOW LEVELS. 1 X-RAY
FLARES WERE CLASS "M", 73 - CLASS "C", TWO SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTION
AND 21 CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.
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FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES
to tm te localization Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME
X-ray/Ïp J/m-2
05.09 1758 1805 1814 S22W72L196 í1.0 7.3E-03 13089
DSF (EPL) to te localization l deg. Fl AR CME/to
05.09 >9 óíå/0125
10.09 1929 centhal zone 14
The informanion about last ejection comes latter.
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NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY WILL BE AT HIGH, MIDDLE AND LOW LEVELS.
ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
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sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Spacecraft
* - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h. only.
Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on
https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations;
EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment.
G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes.
A-active geomagnetic condition.
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FROM 02.09/0615 UT THE EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF INTERPLANETARY MAGNE-
TIC FIELDS. NEXT SECTOR BORDER "+/-" IT CAN EXPECTED 13.09.
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SEPTEMBER 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 SEPTEMBER
Wus 079 056 073 075 072 122 113
F10.7 126 126 127 126 136 128 152
èbcg ó1.1 ÷8.1 ÷7.1 ÷9.4 B5.1 B5.4 ó1.1 GOES
Sp 780 270 240 240 180 340 410 msh
N 1 1 1 1 3
IMF + + + + + + + DSCOVR
Å>2 2.1å+6 2.6E+6 5.7E+8 8.8E+8 3.9E+8 3.7E+8 3.3E+8 GOES
Ie>2 9252 7271 15368 22580 11844 15502 21637 pfu
Ap 32 20 14 19 13 12 9 nô
Dst -59 -46 -51 -36 -44 -52 -25 nô KIOTO
Amsc 27 19 11 16 10 12 10 nô IZMIRAN
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Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary orbits
in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm*2/s.sr) for events F>
1000 pfu.
Pr(>10 MeV) To-8/2230UT; max: 10/2230UT - 1.4pfu; Te: continues;
b/s sourse.
THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BEGUN
AT 4.09/1405 UT AND OBSERVED 4-11.09.
NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS OR-
BIT IS EXPECTED 12-19.09.
A MODERATE MAGNETIC STORM (G2, Ams=45, duration= 41 h) IS REGISTERED
ACCORDING TO THE CENTER IN BOULDER DATA AND ACCORDING TO THE IZMIRAN
DATA 2 MINOR MAGNETIC STORMS (G1, Ams= 31, duration=39 h) AND AFTER 6
HOURS (G1, Ams= 31, duration= 18 h) OBSERVED 3 - 6.09. THESE MAGNETIC
DISTURBATIONS WERE CAUSED BY THE JOINT INFLUENCE OF A HIGH-SPEED STRE-
AM FROM A LARGE EQATORIAL CORONAL HOLE AND THE ARRIVAL OF A DISTURBAN-
CE FROM THE SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTION 2.09, ACCOMPANIED BY A TYPE II CO-
RONAL MASS EJECTION. ON OTHER DAYS THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION CHANGED
FROM ACTIVE TO UNSETTLED.
NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS EXPECTED THE QUITE AND UNSET-
TLED.
HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE,
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3,
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru
V.Ishkov