25 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY, THE BRANCH OF RISE: THE PHASE OF RISE Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 12 - 18.09.2022 Forecast on 19 - 26.09.2022 Carrington Rotations 2261, 2262 (17,9.08; 14,7.09.2022) Earth out of ecliptic (-2.2 - -1.6) deg. (S30 - N30 is zone of geoeffectiveness) THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY CHANGED FROM MIDDLE TO LOW LE- VELS. ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD IS W= 045+25/ -14 (Wn=74+43/-14). ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISC OBSERVED TO 9 SUN- SPOT GROUPS, ONE OF THEM WAS BIG AND ONE-MIDDLE SIZE> 5 LOCALIZED ON THE NORTH HEMISPHERE. NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT ACTIVITY EXPECTED ON THE MIDDLE AND LOW LEVELS. WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTER- NATIONAL SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEK IS W=060+40/-40. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE HIGH, MIDDLE AND LOW LEVELS. 7 X-RAY FLARES WERE CLASS "M" (TWO - LARGE), 107 - CLASS "C", 4 SOLAR FILA- MENT EJECTION AND 17 CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES to tm te localization Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 12.09 2337 2344 2348 N19W41L049 M1.7/SF 13098 14.09 0941 1019 1043 N22W58L049 M1.1/SF 2.7E-02 13098 16.09 0944 0949 0956 N20W58L049 M7.9 13098 16.09 1549 1559 1612 N18W81L049 M6.2/SN 5.7E-02 13098 17.09 1242 1319 1321 N23W87L049 M1.1 13098 17.09 1321 1339 1353 N22W87L049 M1.9 3.1E-02 13098 17.09 2032 2041 2052 N18W87L049 M2.6 2.1E-02 13098 DSF (EPL) to te localization l deg. Fl AR CME/to 15.09 0633 S03W47L283 10 CME/0848 15.09 0646 0814 N01W61L269 15 15.09 >0014 >1328 N04W38L292 13 16.09 SW quadrant óíå/0200 ------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY WILL BE AT HIGH, MIDDLE AND LOW LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Spacecraft CH*+ N25L280 N18L301 N12L285 S01L270 8.1% 23.09 3 - SDO, HINODE * - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h. only. Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FROM 15.09/1305 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF INTERPLANETARY MAGNE- TIC FIELDS. NEXT SECTOR BORDER "-/+" IT CAN EXPECTED 29.09. ---------------------------------------------------------------- SEPTEMBER 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 SEPTEMBER Wus 079 056 073 075 072 122 113 F10.7 126 126 127 126 136 128 152 èbcg ó1.1 ÷8.1 ÷7.1 ÷9.4 B5.1 B5.4 ó1.1 GOES Sp 780 270 240 240 180 340 410 msh N 1 1 1 1 3 IMF + + + + + + + DSCOVR Å>2 2.1å+6 2.6E+6 5.7E+8 8.8E+8 3.9E+8 3.7E+8 3.3E+8 GOES Ie>2 9252 7271 15368 22580 11844 15502 21637 pfu Ap 32 20 14 19 13 12 9 nô Dst -59 -46 -51 -36 -44 -52 -25 nô KIOTO Amsc 27 19 11 16 10 12 10 nô IZMIRAN ------------------------------------------------------------------ Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary orbits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm*2/s.sr) for events F> 1000 pfu. Pr(>10 MeV) To-8/2230UT; >10 max: highest maximum 12/1345UT-6.75pfu; Te: continues; probable source - flare activity AR13098. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BEGUN AT 4.09/1405 UT AND OBSERVED 4-14.09. NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS OR- BIT IS NOT EXPECTED. THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION CHANGED FROM UNSETTLED TO QUITE. NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS EXPECTED THE QUITE AND UNSET- TLED. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V.Ishkov