25 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY,
THE BRANCH OF RISE: THE PHASE OF RISE
Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 12 - 18.09.2022
Forecast on 19 - 26.09.2022
Carrington Rotations 2261, 2262 (17,9.08; 14,7.09.2022)
Earth out of ecliptic (-2.2 - -1.6) deg.
(S30 - N30 is zone of geoeffectiveness)
THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY CHANGED FROM MIDDLE TO LOW LE-
VELS. ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE SUNSPOT
NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD IS W= 045+25/
-14 (Wn=74+43/-14). ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISC OBSERVED TO 9 SUN-
SPOT GROUPS, ONE OF THEM WAS BIG AND ONE-MIDDLE SIZE> 5 LOCALIZED
ON THE NORTH HEMISPHERE.
NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT ACTIVITY EXPECTED ON THE MIDDLE AND LOW LEVELS.
WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTER-
NATIONAL SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEK IS W=060+40/-40.
FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE HIGH, MIDDLE AND LOW LEVELS. 7 X-RAY
FLARES WERE CLASS "M" (TWO - LARGE), 107 - CLASS "C", 4 SOLAR FILA-
MENT EJECTION AND 17 CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.
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FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES
to tm te localization Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME
X-ray/Пp J/m-2
12.09 2337 2344 2348 N19W41L049 M1.7/SF 13098
14.09 0941 1019 1043 N22W58L049 M1.1/SF 2.7E-02 13098
16.09 0944 0949 0956 N20W58L049 M7.9 13098
16.09 1549 1559 1612 N18W81L049 M6.2/SN 5.7E-02 13098
17.09 1242 1319 1321 N23W87L049 M1.1 13098
17.09 1321 1339 1353 N22W87L049 M1.9 3.1E-02 13098
17.09 2032 2041 2052 N18W87L049 M2.6 2.1E-02 13098
DSF (EPL) to te localization l deg. Fl AR CME/to
15.09 0633 S03W47L283 10 CME/0848
15.09 0646 0814 N01W61L269 15
15.09 >0014 >1328 N04W38L292 13
16.09 SW quadrant уне/0200
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NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY WILL BE AT HIGH, MIDDLE AND LOW LEVELS.
ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
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sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Spacecraft
CH*+ N25L280 N18L301 N12L285 S01L270 8.1% 23.09 3 - SDO, HINODE
* - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h. only.
Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on
https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations;
EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment.
G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes.
A-active geomagnetic condition.
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FROM 15.09/1305 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF INTERPLANETARY MAGNE-
TIC FIELDS. NEXT SECTOR BORDER "-/+" IT CAN EXPECTED 29.09.
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SEPTEMBER 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 SEPTEMBER
Wus 079 056 073 075 072 122 113
F10.7 126 126 127 126 136 128 152
иbcg у1.1 ч8.1 ч7.1 ч9.4 B5.1 B5.4 у1.1 GOES
Sp 780 270 240 240 180 340 410 msh
N 1 1 1 1 3
IMF + + + + + + + DSCOVR
Е>2 2.1е+6 2.6E+6 5.7E+8 8.8E+8 3.9E+8 3.7E+8 3.3E+8 GOES
Ie>2 9252 7271 15368 22580 11844 15502 21637 pfu
Ap 32 20 14 19 13 12 9 nф
Dst -59 -46 -51 -36 -44 -52 -25 nф KIOTO
Amsc 27 19 11 16 10 12 10 nф IZMIRAN
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Е>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary orbits
in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm*2/s.sr) for events F>
1000 pfu.
Pr(>10 MeV) To-8/2230UT; >10 max: highest maximum 12/1345UT-6.75pfu;
Te: continues; probable source - flare activity AR13098.
THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BEGUN
AT 4.09/1405 UT AND OBSERVED 4-14.09.
NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS OR-
BIT IS NOT EXPECTED.
THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION CHANGED FROM UNSETTLED TO QUITE.
NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS EXPECTED THE QUITE AND UNSET-
TLED.
HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE,
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3,
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru
V.Ishkov