Dear colleagues, I congratulations from the bottom of my heart you îappy New Year 2023, the fourth Year of the 25th cycle of solar activity of the second reliable epoch of low solar activity. We are waiting for interesting, but grayish active phenomena, and class X flare events will be as rare as extreme events of the past epoch of increased SA (1944-1996). Little significant SPå, large magnetic storms and other troubles ... But you still hold on and let you and your relatives and friends, as well as distant, but your loved ones, be all year Luck, Health and Vivacity of Spirit and now, and forever, and forever and ever. LET IT BE SO!!!! Sincerely, V.N. Ishkov 25 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY, THE BRANCH OF RISE: THE PHASE OF RISE THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON DECEMBER 2022 HAS MADE Wdec. = 67.9 113.1(in new system) THAT GIVES FOR 30 MONTH (2022, JUNE) OF DEVELOPMENT CURRENT 25 SOLAR CYCLE THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER W*june = 48.6 81.0 - × ÎÏ×ÏÊ ÓÉÓÔÅÍÅ W*may = 46.4 77.3 - × ÎÏ×ÏÊ ÓÉÓÔÅÍÅ On July 1, 2015 Centre in Brussels moved to a new system of calcu- lation the relative number of sunspots and practically all of the values were replaced throughout the numbered series of Wolf numbers (see link). While there is addictive, I recalculated (0.6) to the old system, but only W*, and present below the new values for the minimum and maximum of 25 cycles SA. THE BEGINNING OF 25 SOLAR CYCLE - I 2020 with W*=1.3; (1.8n) THE PHASE OF MINIMUM OF SOLAR CYCLE 25 - 2020 01 - 2021 10 MAXIMUM OF THE CURRENT 25 CYCLE - VI 2024 - Wmax =90-100; (150n) THE END OF 25 SOLAR CYCLE (THE POINT OF MINIMUM) - I - VI 2031; PROVISIONAL DAILY INTERNATIONAL SUNSPOT NUMDER FOR NOVEMBER 2022 (61 observatories): 1.. 52m 6..120 11..140 16..132 21..102 26..114 31.. 91 2.. 73 7..128 12..156 17..131 22.. 99 27.. 93 3.. 79 8..128 13..158M 18..127 23.. 85 28..103 4.. 97 9..111 14..154 19..114 24.. 94 29..123 5..106 10..123 15..143 20..109 25..103 30..117 [The daily value W in old system close to true (in a minimum phase) can be received, multiplying by k = 0.6]. THE MONTHLY MEAN OF OBSERVED RADIO FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz) ON NOVEMBER 2022, AND SMOOTHES ON 2022, MAY F10.7nov. = 147.9 F*10.7may.= XXX THE MONTHLY MEAN OF GEOMAGNETIC Ap-index ON NOVEMBER 2022, AND SMOOTHES ON 2021, MAY Ap nov. = 11.2 Ap*may. = xxx --------------------------------------------------------------------- 25 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY, THE BRANCH OF RISE: THE PHASE OF RISE Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 19 - 25.12.2022 Forecast on 26.12 - 01.01.2023 Carrington Rotations 2265 (5,05.12.2022) Earth out of ecliptic (6.1 - 7.0) deg. (S20 - N35 is zone of geoeffectiveness) THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS AT MIDDLE LEVEL. ESTIMATED. MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTER- NATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD IS W=071+33/-6 (Wn=119+55/-11). ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISC OBSERVED UP 8 SUNSPOT GROUPS, ONE OF WHICH WAS LARGE AND 3 LOCALIZED ON THE SOUTH HEMISPHERE. NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT ACTIVITY EXPECTED ON THE MIDDLE AND LOW LEVELS. WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNA- TIONAL SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEK IS W=100+40/-40. FLARE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN AT HIGH, MODERATE AND LOW LEVELS. 7 FLARE OF X-RAY CLASS M, 95- CLASS C, AND 31 CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES to tm te localization Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 27.12 0046 0054 0100 N18E63L008 M2.0 1.2E-02 13176 27.12 0802 0815 0835 N17E60L008 M1.0/SF 1.6E-02 13176 29.12 0632 0727 0808 N17E88L310 M1.2 4.4E-02 13180 29.12 1811 1839 1820 N20E88L042 M2.2 13179 29.12 1826 1843 1833 N20E88L042 M2.4 13179 30.12 1524 1528 1532 N20E09L008 M1.4/1b 3.5E-03 13176 30.12 1926 1938 1947 N20E09L008 M3.7/2n 2.3E-02 13176 DSF (EPL) to te localization l deg. Fl AR CME/to ------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY WILL BE AT LOW, ANDMIDDLE LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING GEOEFFECTIVE CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Spacecraft óî + N55L116 N45L131 N10L121 N15L101 4.4% 29.12 R1 - SDO, HINOTORI óî - N02L355 S15L003 S25L357 S05L345 3.5% 05.01 R2 A SDO, HINOTORI * - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h. only. Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FROM 21.12/1430 UT THE EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELDS. NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY "+/-" IT CAN EXPECTED 3.01. ---------------------------------------------------------------- DECEMBER 26 27 28 29 30 31 01 ñî÷áòø Wus 096 089 088 113 121 082 094 F10.7 151 159 160 163 162 165 153 èbcg C1.4 C1.3 ó1.2 ó1.2 ó1.3 ó1.1 B8.9 GOES Sp 590 1110 750 710 860 1320 1220 msh N 1 1 2 1 1 IMF + + + + + + + DSCOVR Å>2 7.0å+7 3.5E+7 5.7E+7 8.2E+7 7.4E+7 6.4å+7 1.1å+8 GOES Ie>2 2947 1630 1147 2808 3678 214 2837 Pfu Ap 22 25 5 11 31 16 14 nô Dst -50 -69 -39 -25 -45 -45 -24 nô KIOTO Amsc 23 25 10 11 29 13 19 nô IZMIRAN ------------------------------------------------------------------ Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary orbits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm*2/s.sr) for events F> 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BEGUN AT 24/12 141 5UT AND OBSERVED 26.12.22 - 1.01.23. NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX WITH å>2 MeV IS POSSIB- LE 02-06.01.2023. A MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G1, Ams=31, dur.=18 h) ACCORDING TO THE CENTER IN BOULDER AND AN INTENSE SUBSTORM (G2, dur=12h) ACCORDING TO IZMIRAN DA- TA WAS SIGNED ON 27.12. AT THE END OF THE DAY ON 26.12 BOTH CENTERS MADE SUBSTORMS (G1, 9 h) ACCORDING TO BOLDER DATA AND (G2, 6 h) ACCORDING TO IZMIRAN DATA. THIS IS A CONSEQUENCE OF A DISTURBANCE COMING TO THE EARTH FROM THE SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTIONS 23-24.12. THE 2-nd MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G1, Ams= 38, dur=12 h) ACCORDING TO THE CENTER IN BOULDER AND SUBSTORM (G1, 9 h) ACCORDING TO THE IZMIRAN DATA IS REGISTERED ON 30.12. AS A CON- SEQUENCE OF THE EARTH'S PASSAGE OF A HIGH-SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAM FROM THE "+" CORONAL HOLE OF THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE POLARITY. NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WILL BE CHANGING FROM QUIET TO UN- SETTLED UNTIL 5.01, WHEN THE EARTH ENTERS A HIGH-SPEED SOLAR WIND STRE- AM FROM "-" POLARITY TRANS-EQUATORIAL CORONAL HOLE. THE PROBABILITY OF A MAGNETIC STORM IS NOT LESS THAN 30%. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V.Ishkov