25 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY, THE BRANCH OF RISE: THE PHASE OF RISE THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON DECEMBER 2022 HAS MADE Wdec. = 67.9 113.1(in new system) THAT GIVES FOR 30 MONTH (2022, JUNE) OF DEVELOPMENT CURRENT 25 SOLAR CYCLE THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER W*june = 48.6 81.0 - × ÎÏ×ÏÊ ÓÉÓÔÅÍÅ W*may = 46.4 77.3 - × ÎÏ×ÏÊ ÓÉÓÔÅÍÅ On July 1, 2015 Centre in Brussels moved to a new system of calcu- lation the relative number of sunspots and practically all of the values were replaced throughout the numbered series of Wolf numbers (see link). While there is addictive, I recalculated (0.6) to the old system, but only W*, and present below the new values for the minimum and maximum of 25 cycles SA. THE BEGINNING OF 25 SOLAR CYCLE - I 2020 with W*=1.3; (1.8n) THE PHASE OF MINIMUM OF SOLAR CYCLE 25 - 2020 01 - 2021 10 MAXIMUM OF THE CURRENT 25 CYCLE - VI 2024 - Wmax =90-100; (150n) THE END OF 25 SOLAR CYCLE (THE POINT OF MINIMUM) - I - VI 2031; PROVISIONAL DAILY INTERNATIONAL SUNSPOT NUMDER FOR NOVEMBER 2022 (61 observatories): 1.. 52m 6..120 11..140 16..132 21..102 26..114 31.. 91 2.. 73 7..128 12..156 17..131 22.. 99 27.. 93 3.. 79 8..128 13..158M 18..127 23.. 85 28..103 4.. 97 9..111 14..154 19..114 24.. 94 29..123 5..106 10..123 15..143 20..109 25..103 30..117 [The daily value W in old system close to true (in a minimum phase) can be received, multiplying by k = 0.6]. THE MONTHLY MEAN OF OBSERVED RADIO FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz) ON NOVEMBER 2022, AND SMOOTHES ON 2022, MAY F10.7nov. = 148.5 F*10.7may.= 122.7 THE MONTHLY MEAN OF GEOMAGNETIC Ap-index ON NOVEMBER 2022, AND SMOOTHES ON 2021, MAY Ap nov. = 11.2 Ap*may. = xxx --------------------------------------------------------------------- 25 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY, THE BRANCH OF RISE: THE PHASE OF RISE Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 19 - 25.12.2022 Forecast on 02 - 08.01.2023 Carrington Rotations 2266 (1,38.01.2023) Earth out of ecliptic (6.8 - 6.4) deg. (S20 - N35 is zone of geoeffectiveness) THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS AT MIDDLE LEVEL. ESTIMATED. MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTER- NATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD IS W=060+10/-8 (Wn=099+18/-13). ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISC OBSERVED UP 6 SUNSPOT GROUPS, ONE OF WHICH WAS MIDDLE SIZE AND 4 LOCALIZED ON THE SOUTH HEMISPHERE. NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT ACTIVITY EXPECTED ON THE MIDDLE AND LOW LEVELS. WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNA- TIONAL SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEK IS W=100+40/-40. FLARE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN AT HIGH, MIDDLE AND LOW LEVELS. 1 FLARE WAS X-RAY CLASS X, 5 -CLASS M, 95 -CLASS C AND 39 CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES to tm te localization Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 06.01 0043 0057 0151 S20E81L226 X1.2/2B 6.2E-02 13182 CME/0125? 07.01 0040 0102 0101 S21E67L226 M1.6/SF 1.2E-02 13182 óíå/0912 08.01 0839 0854 0906 S14E90L179 M1.2 1.4E-02 13184 08.01 0915 0948 1014 S16E90L179 M1.4 3.9E-02 13184 08.01 1451 1507 1521 S14E90L179 M1.4 1.8E-02 13184 08.01 1902 1911 1919 S15E86L179 M1.0/Sf 1.6E-02 13184 DSF (EPL) to te localization l deg. Fl AR CME/to ------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY WILL BE AT LOW, MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING GEOEFFECTIVE CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Spacecraft óî - N02L355 S15L003 S25L357 S05L345 3.5% 05.01 R2 A SDO, HINOTORI * - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h. only. Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FROM 4.01/18 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELDS. NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY "-/+" IT CAN EXPECTED 17.01. ---------------------------------------------------------------- DECEMBER 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 ñî÷áòø Wus 094 089 086 103 101 104 117 F10.7 146 149 151 154 172 179 184 èbcg B6.6 C1.0 ó1.0 ó1.0 ó1.1 ó1.3 ó2.0 GOES Sp 1100 930 550 690 920 1210 1810 msh N 2 1 IMF + + +/- - - - - DSCOVR Å>2 1.6å+8 1.4E+8 3.8E+6 2.7E+6 1.8E+6 1.7å+6 4.4å+6 GOES Ie>2 3546 4067 1394 214 149 157 221 Pfu Ap 8 7 21 8 4 6 8 nô Dst -50 -69 -39 -25 nô KIOTO Amsc 11 9 14 9 4 6 6 nô IZMIRAN ------------------------------------------------------------------ Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary orbits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm*2/s.sr) for events F> 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BEGUN AT 24/12 141 5UT AND OBSERVED 26.12.22 - 4.01.23. NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX WITH å>2 MeV IS NOT EX- PECTED. THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION CHANGED FROM UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE. A MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G1, Ams=23, dur.=12 h) ACCORDING TO THE CENTER IN BOUL- DER AND A SUBSTORM (G0, dur=9 h) ACCORDING TO IZMIRAN DATA WAS ODSERVED ON 4.01 AFTER THE ARRIVAL OF THE INTERPLANETARY SHOCK WAVE TO THE EARTH (SI/04.01-0254 UT), THE SOURCE OF WHICH IS UNKNOWN. NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WILL BE CHANGING FROM QUIET TO UN- SETTLED. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V.Ishkov