25 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY, THE BRANCH OF RISE: THE PHASE OF RISE Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 19 - 25.12.2022 Forecast on 02 - 08.01.2023 Carrington Rotations 2266 (1,38.01.2023) Earth out of ecliptic (6.8 - 6.4) deg. (S20 - N35 is zone of geoeffectiveness) THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY GHANGED FROM AT MIDDLE TO HIGH LEVELS. ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD IS W=103+18/-17 (Wn= 171+30/-20). ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISC OBSERVED UP 10 SUNSPOT GROUPS, THREE OF WHICH WAS BIG AND 3 - MIDDLE SIZE. 4 LOCALIZED ON THE SOUTH HEMISPHERE. NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT ACTIVITY EXPECTED ON THE MIDDLE AND LOW LEVELS. WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNA- TIONAL SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEK IS W=100+40/-40. FLARE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN AT HIGH, MIDDLE AND LOW LEVELS. 2 FLARE WAS X-RAY CLASS X, 24 -CLASS M (3 WERE LARGE), 95-CLASS C, ONE EJECTIONS OF SOLAR FILAMENT AND 72 CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS, ONE OF WHICH WAS TY- PE IV (HALO) AND 5 - TYPE II (angular width 90 - 180 deg) HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES to tm te localization Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 09.01 0051 0102 0119 S13E89L179 M1.1/SF 1.6E-02 13184 09.01 0845 0901 0916 S16W26L281 M2.1/1n 2.4E-02 13181 09.01 1315 1322 1331 S18W25L281 M1.0 6.2E-03 13181 09.01 1837 1850 1931 S14E72L179 X1.9/3B 9.7E-02 13184 10.01 0009 0016 0121 N24E79L168 M5.1/SN 2.2E-02 13186 10.01 0208 0216 0224 S12E68L179 M1.0/SF 7.2E-03 13184 10.01 0233 0241 0331 S18W33L281 M2.7/2N 2.5E-02 13181 10.01 1059 1108 1112 S13E63L179 M1.1 4.8E-03 13184 10.01 1717 1728 1734 N22E66L168 M1.3 8.8E-03 13186 10.01 1744 1748 1752 S13E59L179 M1.2 3.8E-03 13184 10.01 2239 2247 2252 N25E66L168 X1.0/2b 13186 11.01 0039 0059 0155 N25E66L168 M2.4/1f 2.3E-02 13186 IV 11.01 0149 0156 0201 S13E53L179 M5.6/1B 2.1E-02 13184 II 11.01 0531 0634 0609 S14W53L281 M1.3/SF 3.1E-02 13181 11.01 0825 0833 0837 N22E56L168 M3.1/SN 5.9E-03 13186 CME 12.01 0553 0618 0633 N22E47L168 M1.1 1.4E-02 13186 12.01 0633 0646 0702 N23E49L168 M1.5 2.4E-02 13186 12.01 1108 1128 1146 S14W69L281 M1.2/SF 2.2E-02 13181 12.01 1439 1457 1510 S17W10L226 M1.0 1.4E-02 13182 12.01 1903 1913 1924 S17W14L226 M1.0 1.1E-02 13182 13.01 0249 0259 0326 N27E41L168 1N/M1.4 6.5E-03 13186 13.01 1005 1015 1019 S19W84L281 M3.9/Sn 1.3E-02 13181 II|381 14.01 0129 0209 0230 N18E75L119 M1.3/SF 4.3E-02 13192 14.01 2006 2021 2028 S17W42L226 M3.5/SF 13182 14.01 2037 2100 2119 S15W43L226 M4.6 13182 15.01 0308 0342 0408 S23E23L123 M6.0/SF 1.4E-01 13191 II/1|223 CME/0348 15.01 1416 1431 1511 S15E54L124 M4.8/2B 6.0E-02 13190 DSF (EPL) to te localization l deg. Fl AR CME/to ------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY WILL BE AT LOW, MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING GEOEFFECTIVE CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Spacecraft * - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h. only. Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FROM 4.01/18 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELDS. NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY "-/+" IT CAN EXPECTED 17.01. ---------------------------------------------------------------- JANUARY 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 JANUARY Wus 142 201 183 151 181 170 177 F10.7 191 193 195 212 209 228 234 èbcg ó2.2 C2.1 ó2.1 ó3.3 ó2.6 ó3.1 ó3.3 GOES Sp 2290 2180 2060 1430 1650 1750 1820 msh N 1 2 1 4 2 IMF - - - - - - - DSCOVR Å>2 3.9å+6 6.4E+6 2.6E+6 2.7E+6 5.2E+6 3.3å+6 6.8å+6 GOES Ie>2 301 564 168 202 386 252 317 Pfu Ap 5 7 9 9 12 11 30 nô Dst nô KIOTO Amsc 4 7 9 7 11 9 19 nô IZMIRAN ------------------------------------------------------------------ Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary orbits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm*2/s.sr) for events F> 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT NOT OB- SERVED. NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX WITH å>2 MeV IS EXPEC- TED AFTER 20.01. THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION CHANGED FROM QUIET TO UNSETTLED ON ALL DAYS EXCEPT 15.01, WHEN A MINOR MAGNETIC STORM WAS REGISTERED BY THE CENTER IN BOLDER (G1, Amsc=31, dur=24 h). ACCORDING TO IZMIRAN IT WAS SUBSTORM (G0, dur. 9 h). THE SOURCE IS ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASED FLARE ACTIVITY IN THE MID OF THE PAST WEEK. NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WILL BE CHANGING FROM ACTIVE, UP TO MAGNETIC STORMS, TO UNSETTLED. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V.Ishkov