25 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY, THE BRANCH OF RISE: THE PHASE OF RISE Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 16 - 22.01.2023 Forecast on 23 - 30.01.2023 Carrington Rotations 2266-2967 (1,38-28,7.01.2023) Earth out of ecliptic (5.9 - 5.5) deg. (S20 - N35 is zone of geoeffectiveness) THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY GHANGED FROM AT MIDDLE TO HIGH LEVELS. ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD IS W= 109+9/-9 (Wn= 180+17/-16). ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISC OBSERVED UP 12 SUNSPOT GROUPS, ONE OF WHICH WAS BIG AND 3 - MIDDLE SIZE. 4 LOCALIZED ON THE SOUTH HEMISPHERE. NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT ACTIVITY EXPECTED ON THE MIDDLE AND LOW LEVELS. WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNA- TIONAL SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEK IS W=160+40/-40. FLARE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN AT HIGH, MIDDLE AND LOW LEVELS. 7 FLARE WAS X-RAY CLASS M, 81-CLASS C, ONE EJECTIONS OF SOLAR FILAMENT AND 43 CO- RONAL MASS EJECTIONS, ONE OF WHICH WAS TYPE II (angular width 90-180 deg) HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES to tm te localization Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 17.01 2316 2329 2344 S17E24L120 M1.8 13190 CME/0324 18.01 1021 1053 1035 S16E20L120 M1.8 1.9E-02 13190 19.01 0400 0403 0415 N11E43L084 M1.1/Sf 4.2E-03 13196 CME/0700 19.01 1006 1012 1019 N11E40L084 M1.7/SF 9.3E-03 13196 19.01 1026 1027 1029 N11E43L084 M1.0 2.0E-03 13196 22.01 1212 1226 1234 S24W50L120 M1.1 1.2E-02 13190 22.01 1649 1702 1740 S26W51L120 M1.6/1÷ 1.2E-02 13190 DSF (EPL) to te localization l deg. Fl AR CME/to 20.01 1131-1325 S37W47L059 26 CME/1528 ------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY WILL BE AT LOW AND MIDDLE LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING GEOEFFECTIVE CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Spacecraft óî + N10L106 N05L111 S15L101 S10L093 2.7% 26.01 5 ííâ SD0, HINOTORI * - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h. only. Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FROM 15.01/23 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELDS. NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY "+/-" IT CAN EXPECTED 2.02. ---------------------------------------------------------------- JANUARY 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 JANUARY Wus 142 201 183 151 181 170 177 F10.7 191 193 195 212 209 228 234 èbcg ó2.2 C2.1 ó2.1 ó3.3 ó2.6 ó3.1 ó3.3 GOES Sp 2290 2180 2060 1430 1650 1750 1820 msh N 1 2 1 4 2 IMF - - - - - - - DSCOVR Å>2 3.9å+6 6.4E+6 2.6E+6 2.7E+6 5.2E+6 3.3å+6 6.8å+6 GOES Ie>2 301 564 168 202 386 252 317 Pfu Ap 5 7 9 9 12 11 30 nô Dst nô KIOTO Amsc 4 7 9 7 11 9 19 nô IZMIRAN ------------------------------------------------------------------ Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary orbits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm*2/s.sr) for events F> 1000 pfu. Pr>10 MeV: to-0830; tmax1-1400/1.1 pfu; tmax2-0.73 pfu; te-21/0430 UT. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT NOT OB- SERVED. NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX WITH å>2 MeV IS EXPEC- TED AFTER 25.01. THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION CHANGED FROM QUIET TO ACTIVE WITH SUBSTORM (G0) OF 6 h DURATION. NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WILL BE CHANGING FROM ACTIVE, BUT 26.01 THE EARTH WILL ENTER HIGH-SPEED STREAM OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL CORONAL HOLE "+" POLARITY. PROBABILITY OF A MINOR MAGNETIC STORM ~10%. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V.Ishkov