25 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY,
THE BRANCH OF RISE: THE PHASE OF RISE
Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 23 - 29.01.2023
Forecast on 30.01 - 05.02.2023
Carrington Rotations 2266-2967 (1,38-28,7.01.2023)
Earth out of ecliptic (5.4 - 5.0) deg.
(S20 - N35 is zone of geoeffectiveness)
THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS AT MIDDLE LEVEL. ESTIMATED,
MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTER-
NATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD IS W= 56+30/-19 (Wn=93+51/-17). ON
THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISC OBSERVED UP 12 SUNSPOT GROUPS, ONE OF WHICH
WAS BIG AND 2 LOCALIZED ON THE SOUTH HEMISPHERE BUT AFTER 24-27.01
ON IT DIDN'T HAVE ONE.
NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT ACTIVITY EXPECTED ON THE MIDDLE LEVEL. WEEKLY
AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL
SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEK IS W=140+40/-40.
FLARE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN AT HIGH, MIDDLE AND LOW LEVELS. 4 FLARE WAS
X-RAY CLASS M, 9-CLASS C, TWO EJECTIONS OF SOLAR FILAMENTS AND 43 CO-
RONAL MASS EJECTIONS, ONE OF WHICH WAS TYPE II (angular width 90-180
deg) HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.
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FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES
to tm te localization Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME
X-ray/Ïp J/m-2
25.01 0937 1011 1049 N13W78L119 M4.6/Sf 1.5E-01 13192 CME/
25.01 1642 1701 1713 N17W77L119 M1.3/Sf 1.9E-02 13192
25.01 2223 2235 2244 L119 M2.0 13192
26.01 1253 1306 1326 N18W87L119 M2.9 2.1E-02 13192
DSF (EPL) to te localization l deg. Fl AR CME/to
24.01 <1435 N29W58L059 14 CME/1435
24.01 ~1300 N05W34L080 <5 on S from 13196
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NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY WILL BE AT LOW AND MIDDLE LEVELS.
ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING GEOEFFECTIVE CORONAL HOLES
WERE OBSERVED:
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sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Spacecraft
óî + S10L009 S15L119 S20L356 S18L351 1.2% 1.02 3 A SD0, HINOTORI
* - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h. only.
Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on
https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations;
EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment.
G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes.
A-active geomagnetic condition.
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FROM 15.01/23 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC
FIELDS. NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY "+/-" IT CAN EXPECTED 1.02.
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JANUARY 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 ñî÷áòø
Wus 144 127 140 104 084 075 080
F10.7 189 180 172 151 145 138 137
èbcg ó1.8 C1.8 ó2.4 - - - ÷7.0 GOES
Sp 1240 1380 1090 280 170 120 160 msh
N 1 2 2 1
IMF + + + + + + + DSCOVR
Å>2 9.3å+6 1.1E+7 1.1E+7 6.2E+6 1.4E+6 1.3å+7 1.9å+7 GOES
Ie>2 329 411 389 351 370 588 606 Pfu
Ap 7 4 7 11 9 10 9 nô
Dst nô KIOTO
Amsc 8 4 6 8 7 - - nô IZMIRAN
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Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary orbits
in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm*2/s.sr) for events F>
1000 pfu.
THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT NOT OB-
SERVED.
NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX WITH å>2 MeV IS NOT EX-
PECTED.
THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION CHANGED FROM QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WILL BE CHANGING FROM QUITE TO
UNSETTLED.
HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE,
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3,
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru
V.Ishkov