25 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY, THE BRANCH OF RISE: THE PHASE OF RISE Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 23 - 29.01.2023 Forecast on 30.01 - 05.02.2023 Carrington Rotations 2266-2967 (1,38-28,7.01.2023) Earth out of ecliptic (5.4 - 5.0) deg. (S20 - N35 is zone of geoeffectiveness) THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS AT MIDDLE LEVEL. ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTER- NATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD IS W= 56+30/-19 (Wn=93+51/-17). ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISC OBSERVED UP 12 SUNSPOT GROUPS, ONE OF WHICH WAS BIG AND 2 LOCALIZED ON THE SOUTH HEMISPHERE BUT AFTER 24-27.01 ON IT DIDN'T HAVE ONE. NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT ACTIVITY EXPECTED ON THE MIDDLE LEVEL. WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEK IS W=140+40/-40. FLARE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN AT HIGH, MIDDLE AND LOW LEVELS. 4 FLARE WAS X-RAY CLASS M, 9-CLASS C, TWO EJECTIONS OF SOLAR FILAMENTS AND 43 CO- RONAL MASS EJECTIONS, ONE OF WHICH WAS TYPE II (angular width 90-180 deg) HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES to tm te localization Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 25.01 0937 1011 1049 N13W78L119 M4.6/Sf 1.5E-01 13192 CME/ 25.01 1642 1701 1713 N17W77L119 M1.3/Sf 1.9E-02 13192 25.01 2223 2235 2244 L119 M2.0 13192 26.01 1253 1306 1326 N18W87L119 M2.9 2.1E-02 13192 DSF (EPL) to te localization l deg. Fl AR CME/to 24.01 <1435 N29W58L059 14 CME/1435 24.01 ~1300 N05W34L080 <5 on S from 13196 ------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY WILL BE AT LOW AND MIDDLE LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING GEOEFFECTIVE CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Spacecraft óî + S10L009 S15L119 S20L356 S18L351 1.2% 1.02 3 A SD0, HINOTORI * - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h. only. Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FROM 15.01/23 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELDS. NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY "+/-" IT CAN EXPECTED 1.02. ---------------------------------------------------------------- JANUARY 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 ñî÷áòø Wus 144 127 140 104 084 075 080 F10.7 189 180 172 151 145 138 137 èbcg ó1.8 C1.8 ó2.4 - - - ÷7.0 GOES Sp 1240 1380 1090 280 170 120 160 msh N 1 2 2 1 IMF + + + + + + + DSCOVR Å>2 9.3å+6 1.1E+7 1.1E+7 6.2E+6 1.4E+6 1.3å+7 1.9å+7 GOES Ie>2 329 411 389 351 370 588 606 Pfu Ap 7 4 7 11 9 10 9 nô Dst nô KIOTO Amsc 8 4 6 8 7 - - nô IZMIRAN ------------------------------------------------------------------ Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary orbits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm*2/s.sr) for events F> 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT NOT OB- SERVED. NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX WITH å>2 MeV IS NOT EX- PECTED. THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION CHANGED FROM QUIET TO UNSETTLED. NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WILL BE CHANGING FROM QUITE TO UNSETTLED. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V.Ishkov