25 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY, THE BRANCH OF RISE: THE PHASE OF RISE Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 05 - 12.02.2023 Forecast on 13 - 20.02.2023 Carrington Rotations 2967 (28,7.01.2023) Earth out of ecliptic (4.4 - 4.0) deg. (S25 - N30 is zone of geoeffectiveness) THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY CHANGED FROM MIDDLE TO HIGH LEVELS. ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE SUN- SPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD IS W = 91+34/-44 (Wn= 60+19/-4). ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISC OBSERVED UP 12 SUNSPOT GROUPS, 3 OF WHICH WERE MIDDLE SIZES AND 6 LOCALIZED ON THE SOUTH HEMISPHERE. NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT ACTIVITY EXPECTED ON THE HIGH AND MIDDLE LE- VELS. WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEK IS W=130+40/-50. FLARE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN AT HIGH, MIDDLE AND LOW LEVELS. 1 FLARE OF X-RAY CLASS X, 42-CLASS M, 108 FLARES-CLASS ó, TWO EJECTIONS OF SO- LAR FILAMENTS AND 48 CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS, 4 OF WHICH WAS TYPE II (angular width 90 - 180deg) HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES to tm te localization Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 07.02 1333 1353 1422 S14E88L135 M1.0 2.2E-02 13217 07.02 2001 2007 2014 N30E05L223 M1.5/1N 13213 07.02 2246 2258 2305 N28E02L223 M3.8 13213 07.02 2305 2307 2309 N30E03L223 M6.3 13213 08.02 0245 0253 0257 N30E01L223 M2.1 7.0E-03 13213 08.02 1528 1603 1626 N31W05L223 M1.6/2N 3.7E-02 13213 08.02 1956 2012 2046 S09E72L135 M1.5/1N 13217 08.02 2103 2113 2121 N30W10L223 M1.7/1F 13213 08.02 2121 2137 2148 N30W09L223 M1.7 13213 09.02 0245 0310 0328 N30E01L135 M3.0 4.1E-02 13217 09.09 0711 0717 0721 S02E70L135 M1.1/SF 4.4E-03 13217 09.02 0849 0907 0924 S12E85L135 M2.8 3.8E-02 13217 II/1 IV/1 09.02 1430 1456 1527 N30W18L223 M1.5/1N 1.2E-02 13213 09.02 1510 1525 1552 S09E69L135 M1.4/SN 1.5E-02 13217 09.02 1818 1842 1904 N31W18L223 M1.8 3.7E-02 13213 10.02 0245 0320 0403 N29W25L223 M3.7/2N 4.6E-02 13213 II/IV 10.02 0802 0805 0809 N31W27L223 M1.4/SN 3.9E-03 13213 10.02 1435 1455 1512 N13W60L223 M1.1/SF 13213 10.02 1529 1600 1613 N14W62L223 M1.6/SF 13213 10.02 2234 2241 2248 S18E63L135 M1.2/1N 13217 11.02 0759 0808 0815 N07W69L251 M2.2/1N 1.7E-02 13208 11.02 1042 1058 1122 S16E58L121 M1.0/1N 7.9E-03 13220 11.02 1129 1134 1141 N29W70L249 M1.4/SF 8.6E-03 13222 11.02 1205 1209 1215 S09E41L135 M1.5/SF 8.5E-03 13217 11.02 1218 1223 1228 S10E40L135 M1.1 7.0E-03 13217 11.02 1228 1240 1249 S08E42L135 M1.5/SF 1.7E-02 13217 11.02 1540 1548 1554 S10E39L135 X1.1/2B 4.6E-02 13217 11.02 1711 1723 1731 N07W74L251 M1.4/SF 1.1E-02 13208 12.02 0835 0848 0852 S10E29L135 M3.1/1B 1.4E-02 13217 12.02 0911 0927 0937 S09E31L135 M1.4 1.8E-02 13217 12.02 1323 1334 1344 N28W85L249 M1.2 1.0E-02 13222 12.02 1533 1538 1601 S09E26L135 M1.0/SN 1.3E-02 13217 DSF (EPL) to te localization l deg. Fl AR CMEtype/to 10.02 0730 >0948 S15W34L >10 CME/SW/0924 12.02 0920 S12E42 ~10 M1 13217 ------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY WILL BE AT LOW, MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING GEOEFFECTIVE CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Spacecraft óî - N51L288 N50L293 S05L271 N10L246 6.5% 7.02 1 - SD0, HINOTORI * - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h. only. Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FROM 12.02/2355 UT THE EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELDS. NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY "+/-" IT CAN EXPECTED 26.02. ---------------------------------------------------------------- FEBRUARY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 FEBRUARY Wus 079 139 110 142 150 190 209 197 F10.7 144 158 185 192 215 108 210 200 èbcg ÷7.9 ÷7.4 ó1.7 ó1.7 ó2.2 ó2.5 ó2.8 ó2.4 GOES Sp 200 260 425 1000 1190 1610 1720 1730 msh N 1 4 2 3 1 2 1 IMF - - - - - - - -/+ DSCOVR Å>2 1.4å+6 1.1E+6 8.0E+6 6.4E+7 4.2E+7 2.5å+7 4.3å+7 5.3å+7 GOES Ie>2 139 143 216 2518 1220 1002 981 1206 Pfu Ap 4 18 19 18 21 15 9 7 nô Dst nô KIOTO Amsc 4 13 15 18 17 13 6 6 nô IZMIRAN ------------------------------------------------------------------ Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary orbits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm*2/s.sr) for events F> 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BEGUN AT 8.02 AND OBSERVED 8-10.02. NEXT THE FLUX BEGUN AT 12.02/1206 AND OBSERVED 12.02. NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX WITH å>2 MeV IS NOT EX- PECTED. THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS CHANGING FROM QUITE TO ACTIVE. SUBSTORMS OF INTENSITY G0 AND G1 WERE REGISTERED ON 6, 8, 9 AND 10.02, AND ONE GROWED TO THE LEVEL OF A MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G0, Ams= 25, dur.= 18 h) ONLY ACCORDING TO THE CENTER IN THE BOULDER DATA ON 7.02, WHEN THE EARTH WAS PASSING A HIGH-SPEED STREAM FROM THE TRANS-EQUATORIAL CORONAL HOLE. NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WILL BE CHANGING FROM QUITE TO ACTIVE 14-15.02 DUE TO POSSIBLE INTERACTION WITH THE PERIPHERY OF MULTIPLE CMEs THAT LEFT THE SUN OVER 10-11.02. PROBABILITY OF A MI- NOR MAGNETIC STORM ~20%. HOWEVER, HIGH FLARE ACTIVITY CAN PROMOTE DISTURBATIONS IN THE NEAR-EARTH SPACE. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V.Ishkov