25 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY, THE BRANCH OF RISE: THE PHASE OF RISE Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 13 - 19.02.2023 Forecast on 20 - 27.02.2023 Carrington Rotations 2967 - 2968 (28,7.01 - 25,1.02.2023) Earth out of ecliptic (3.9 - 3.5) deg. (S25 - N30 is zone of geoeffectiveness) THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY CHANGED FROM HIGH TO MIDDLE LEVELS. ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE SUN- SPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD IS W = 086+38/-34 (Wn= 134+67/-33). ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISC OBSERVED UP 13 SUNSPOT GROUPS, 6 OF WHICH WERE MIDDLE SIZES AND 6 LOCALI- ZED ON THE SOUTH HEMISPHERE. NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT ACTIVITY EXPECTED ON THE HIGH AND MIDDLE LE- VELS. WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEK IS W=130+40/-50. FLARE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN AT HIGH, MIDDLE AND LOW LEVELS. 1 FLARE OF X-RAY CLASS X, 9 CLASS M, 102 CLASS ó, 3 EJECTIONS OF SOLAR FILAMENTS AND 47 CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS, 1 OF WHICH WAS TYPE "HA- LO" (angular width 360 deg), 1 -TYPE III (180-270) AND 3 -TYPEII (90-180) HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES to tm te localization Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 13.02 0504 0518 0537 N10E46 M1.0 1.7E-02 13226 13.02 1549 1556 1603 N10E40 M1.4 9.4E-03 13226 14.02 0157 0203 0207 N10E39 M1.8/1N 5.8E-03 13226 14.02 1159 1212 1246 N29W85 M2.6 4.7E-02 13213 15.02 0433 0447 0507 N30W85 M1.1 1.7E-02 13213 15.02 0516 0523 0530 N27W86 M2.0 1.4E-02 13213 15.02 0642 0705 0719 N27W86 M1.3 1.8E-02 13213 15.02 2105 2114 2118 N30W85 M1.0 13213 II/ 16.02 0019 0032 0043 N25E86 M1.1 8.9E-03 13229 17.02 1938 2016 2050 N25E64 X2.2/2B 13229 II/2407 CMEIV/2012 DSF (EPL) to te localization l deg. Fl AR CMEtype/to 15.02 0118 >10 óíåII/0200 16.02 ~1059 ~10 C9/1F 13216 17.02 <0306 SE-limb CME/ 0306 18.02 >2200 S15W60L020 >10 17.02 <0306 SE-limb CME/ 0306 ------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY WILL BE AT LOW, MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING GEOEFFECTIVE CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Spacecraft óî + N00L092 S13L096 S20L089 S18L081 2.9% 20.02 2 - SD0, HINOTORI * - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h. only. Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FROM 12.02/2355 UT THE EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELDS. NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY "+/-" IT CAN EXPECTED 26.02. ------------------------------------------------------------------- FEBRUARY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 FEBRUARY Wus 180 180 140 101 086 109 112 F10.7 144 158 174 163 343* 167 169 èbcg ó2.2 ó1.7 ó1.9 ó1.1 ÷9.5 ó2.0 ó1.4 GOES Sp 1165 1500 1290 1100 1260 1100 1050 msh N 3 1 1 1 IMF + + + + + + + DSCOVR Å>2 1.3å+8 4.9E+7 1.3E+6 2.1E+6 2.7E+6 4.6å+6 7.5å+6 GOES Ie>2 5446 1751 571 175 190 235 307 Pfu Ap 4 6 28 23 6 5 6 nô Dst -7 -69 -58 -36 -15 nô KIOTO Amsc 4 6 30 17 5 6 7 nô IZMIRAN --------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary orbits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm*2/s.sr) for events F> 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BEGUN AT 8.02 AND OBSERVED 8-10.02. NEXT THE FLUX BEGUN AT 12.02/1206 AND OBSERVED 12-14.02. NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX WITH å>2 MeV IS NOT EX- PECTED. THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION CHANGED FROM QUIET TO THE LEVEL OF A MINOR MAGNETIC STORM WHICH STARTED ON 15.02 (G1, Ams = 28, duration= 21 h) ACCORDING OF THE CENTER IN BOULDER DATA, AND (G2, Ams= 34, dur=18 h) ACCORDING TO THE IZMIRAN DATA. THE SECOND MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G1, Ams=33, dur= 12 h) REGISTERED ACCORDING TO THE CENTER IN BOULDER, HO- WEVER, ACCORDING TO THE IZMIRAN DATA, A 6-hour G1 INTENSITY SUBSTORM IS OBSERVED AT THIS TIME. BOTH MAGNETIC DISTURBATIONS WERE A CONSE- QUENCE OF GLASSING EFFECTS OF CME FROM FLARES 10-12.02. NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WILL BE CHANGING FROM ACTIVE TO QUITE. AT THE EARLY HOURS OF 20.02 A GRAVING DISTURBATION FROM THE LARGE FLARE X2.2 ON 17.02 SHOULD BE TO THE EARTH, AND ON 21.02 THE HIGH-SPEED STREAM OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL CORONAL HOLES OF "+" POLA- RITY WILL ENTER THE EARTH. PROBABILITY OF MINOR MAGNETIC STORMS DU- RING THESE DAYS ~15%. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V.Ishkov