25 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY, THE BRANCH OF RISE: THE PHASE OF RISE Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 20 - 26.02.2023 Forecast on 27.02 - 05.03.2023 Carrington Rotations 2967 - 2968 (28,7.01 - 25,1.02.2023) Earth out of ecliptic (3.4 - 3.0) deg. (S25 - N30 is zone of geoeffectiveness) THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS AT MIDDLE LEVEL. ESTIMA- TED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD IS W= 070+11/-10 (Wn= 117+18/-17). ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISC OBSERVED UP 8 SUNSPOT GROUPS, 1 OF WHICH WERE BIG SIZE AND 3 LOCALIZED ON THE SOUTH HEMISPHERE. NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT ACTIVITY EXPECTED ON THE HIGH AND MIDDLE LEVELS. WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEK IS W=130+40/-50. FLARE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN AT HIGH, MIDDLE AND LOW LEVELS. 9 FLA- RE OF X-RAY CLASS M (ONE WAS LARGE), 79 - CLASS ó, 2 EJECTION OF SOLAR FILAMENT AND 35 CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS, 1 OF WHICH WERE TYPE IV (angular width 360 deg), 3 TYPE II (90-180) HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES to tm te localization Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 21.02 1114 1123 1131 N25E68L337 M4.7/SF 3.8E-02 13234 21.02 1957 2017 2030 N26E64L337 M5.0 13234 II CME/2048 22.02 0451 0512 0540 N26E59L337 M1.4 2.9E-02 13234 22.02 1336 1350 1358 N26E53L337 M2.6/SF 1.7E-02 13234 23.02 0611 0614 0618 N20E20L005 M1.5 4.1E-03 13235 23.02 0832 0901 0909 N26E43L337 M1.2 8.5E-03 13234 24.02 1711 1715 1720 N20E01L005 M1.1 3.9E-03 13235 24.02 2003 2030 2129 N28W28L036 M3.7/2B 13229 II/1237 IV CMEIV/2012 25.02 1534 1540 1546 S24W00L354 M1.0 4.3E-03 13236 25.02 1840 1944 2100 N24W45L036 M6.4/3N 13229 II/2|3133 CMEIV/1944 DSF (EPL) to te localization l deg. Fl AR CMEtype/to 24.02 1949 N19W34L036 >10 M3.7 13229 CMEIV/2012 25.02 1850 ~N19W34L036 >15 M6.4 13229 CMEIV/2012 ------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY WILL BE AT LOW, MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING GEOEFFECTIVE CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Spacecraft óî + N00L092 S13L096 S20L089 S18L081 2.9% 20.02 2 - SD0, HINOTORI óî - N12L000 S10L015 S20L089 S18L008 4.5% 27.02 5 á SD0, HINOTORI * - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h. only. Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FROM 26.02/0700 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELDS. NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY "-/+" IT CAN EXPECTED 14.03. ------------------------------------------------------------------- FEBRUARY 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 æå÷òáìø Wus 135 106 100 108 130 129 120 F10.7 160 161 142 148 164 152 159 èbcg ó1.3 ó1.3 ó1.2 ó1.3 ó1.1 ó1.0 ó1.6 GOES Sp 1100 760 750 890 900 980 930 msh N 3 2 1 IMF + + + + + + +/- DSCOVR Å>2 7.7å+6 4.0E+6 3.5E+6 1.1E+7 1.6E+7 2.1å+7 2.2å+6 GOES Ie>2 471 427 243 1008 437 966 141 pfu Ap 7 15 6 21 4 10 26 nô Dst -52 -25 -33 -9 nô KIOTO Amsc 7 19 9 19 4 11 29 nô IZMIRAN --------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary orbits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm*2/s.sr) for events F> 1000 pfu. Pr>10 MeV: to=24.02/2030 UT; max-3.54 pfu 25/0030 UT; Pr>10 MeV: to=25.02/2030 UT; max-58.8 pfu 26/0440 UT; continues now THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT NOT OBSERVED 12-14.02. NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX WITH å>2 MeV IS NOT EXPECTED. THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS CHANGING FROM QUITE TO ACTIVE. ON 21, 23, AND 24.02, THE 6 h SUBSTORM OF G0 INTENSITY WERE MARKED, AND AT THE END OF THE DAY, 24.02, ACCORDING TO THE BOULDER CENTER DATA, G1 SUBSTORM DURATION OF 9 h WAS REGISTERED. THESE ALL GEOMAGNETIC DIS- TURBATIONS ARE A CONSEQUENCE OF THE EARTH'S PASSAGE OF A HIGH-SPEED STREAM FROM THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL CORONAL HOLE "+" POLARITY. A PLANE- TARY MODERATE MAGNETIC STORM G2 STARTED AT THE END OF THE DAY ON 26.02 WITH A SUDDEN IMPULS SI/1933 UT AND CONTINUES FOR THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THE FORECAST. THE SOURCE OF IT BECAME THE DISTURBATION (CME) FROM THE SOLAR FLARE M3.7/2B 24.02, WHICH SUPERIMPOSED ON THE HIGH-SPEED STREAM OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL CORONAL HOLE "-" POLARITY. THE NEXT WEEK BEGINS WITH A LARGE MAGNETIC STORM OF G3 INTENSITY (Kp=7), WHICH WILL LONG WITH A 70% PROBABILITY UNTIL 28.02 - A CON- SEQUENCE OF GEOEFFECTIVE FLASHES ON 24 - 25.02. ON OTHER DAYS THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WILL CHANGING FROM ACTIVE TO UNSETTLED. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V.Ishkov