25 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY, THE BRANCH OF RISE: THE PHASE OF RISE THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON FEBRUARY 2023 HAS MADE Wdec. = 66.7 110.9(in new system) THAT GIVES FOR 32 MONTH (2022, AUGUST) OF DEVELOPMENT CURRENT 25 SOLAR CYCLE THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER W*aug. = 55.4 92.3 - × ÎÏ×ÏÊ ÓÉÓÔÅÍÅ W*july = 51.9 86.5 - × ÎÏ×ÏÊ ÓÉÓÔÅÍÅ On July 1, 2015 Centre in Brussels moved to a new system of calcu- lation the relative number of sunspots and practically all of the values were replaced throughout the numbered series of Wolf numbers (see link). While there is addictive, I recalculated (0.6) to the old system, but only W*, and present below the new values for the minimum and maximum of 25 cycles SA. THE BEGINNING OF 25 SOLAR CYCLE - I 2020 with W*=1.3; (1.8n) THE PHASE OF MINIMUM OF SOLAR CYCLE 25 - 2020 01 - 2021 10 MAXIMUM OF THE CURRENT 25 CYCLE - VI 2024 - Wmax =90-100; (150n) THE END OF 25 SOLAR CYCLE (THE POINT OF MINIMUM) - I - VI 2031; PROVISIONAL DAILY INTERNATIONAL SUNSPOT NUMDER FOR FEBRUARY 2023 (67 observatories): 1.. 71 6..113 11..165 16.. 92 21..104 26..118 2.. 58m 7..106 12..156 17.. 86 22.. 86 27..127 3.. 64 8..124 13..175M 18..104 23.. 89 28.. 92 4.. 70 9..128 14..160 19..106 24..117 5.. 73 10..164 15..122 20..110 25..126 [The daily value W in old system close to true (in a minimum phase) can be received, multiplying by k = 0.6]. THE MONTHLY MEAN OF OBSERVED RADIO FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz) ON FEBRUARY 2023, AND SMOOTHES ON AUGUST 2022 F10.7feb. = 167.2 F*10.7aug.= 133.8 THE MONTHLY MEAN OF GEOMAGNETIC Ap-index ON FEBRUARYY 2023, AND SMOOTHES ON AUGUST 2022 Ap feb. = 14.6 Ap*aug = xxx --------------------------------------------------------------------- 25 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY, THE BRANCH OF RISE: THE PHASE OF RISE Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 27.02 - 05.03.2023 Forecast on 06 - 13.03.2023 Carrington Rotation 2968 (25,1.02.2023) Earth out of ecliptic (2.4 - 2.0) deg. (S25 - N30 is zone of geoeffectiveness) THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS AT MIDDLE LEVEL. ESTIMA- TED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD IS W= 077+38/-17 (Wn= 127+65/-27). ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISC OBSERVED UP 10 SUNSPOT GROUPS, 1 OF WHICH WERE BIG SIZE AND 4 LOCALIZED ON THE SOUTH HEMISPHERE. NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT ACTIVITY EXPECTED ON THE HIGH AND MIDDLE LEVELS. WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEK IS W=130+40/-50. FLARE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN AT HIGH, MIDDLE AND LOW LEVELS. 1 FLA- RE OF X-RAY CLASS X, 11- CLASS M (ONE WAS LARGE), 79 - CLASS ó, 1 EJECTION OF SOLAR FILAMENT AND 61 CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS, 4 TYPE II (90-180) HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES to tm te localization Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 28.02 1735 1756 1750 N27W29L337 M8.6 5.7E-02 13234 CME/ 01.03 0056 0107 0118 N26W33L337 M1.0/1N 7.8E-03 13234 02.03 2105 2116 2125 L337 M3.8 13234 03.03 1008 1129 1212 N21W72L337 M3.3/1F 4.7E-02 13234 03.03 1743 1750 1825 N22W80L337 X2.1/1B* 13234 II/1|247 04.03 0706 0710 0714 N17W39L306 M1.0/SN 3.2E-3 13243 04.03 1334 1342 1347 N08E43L216 M1.2/1F 6.6E-3 13242 04.03 1519 1557 1626 N19W87L337 M5.2 1.4E-1 13234 II/2815 IV/2 CMEII/1548 05.03 0240 0252 0303 N09W01L258 M1.3/SF 1.0E-02 13238 05.03 1624 1641 1653 N10W12L258 M1.0/SF 8.5E-03 13238 05.03 1653 1701 1711 N14E37L216 M1.0 1.1E-02 13242 05.03 2129 2136 2141 N18W60L306 M5.0 13243 * ×ÒÅÍÑ ÄÁ£ÔÓÑ ÐÏ ÏÐÔÉËÅ 06.03 0208 0228 0235 N18W63L306 M5.8 4.4E-02 13243 IV/1 DSF (EPL) to te localization l deg. Fl AR CMEtype/to 03.03 1449 1516 N08E52L325 8 C9.2 13242 ------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY WILL BE AT LOW, MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING GEOEFFECTIVE CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Spacecraft óî - N12L000 S10L015 S20L089 S18L008 4.5% 27.02 5 á SD0, HINOTORI CH - N22L280 S05L290 N10L277 N02L265 8.4% 4-5.02 2 MMâ SD0, HINOTORI * - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h. only. Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FROM 26.02/0700 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELDS. NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY "-/+" IT CAN EXPECTED 14.03. ------------------------------------------------------------------- MARCH 27 28 01 02 03 04 05 MARCH Wus 192 100 105 103 133 122 137 F10.7 161 161 162 169 175 182 180 èbcg ó1.0 ó1.1 ó1.2 ó1.6 ó1.8 ó2.0 ó1.7 GOES Sp 1030 1110 1110 1320 1430 620 770 msh N 1 1 2 1 1 IMF - - - - - - - DSCOVR Å>2 2.4å+6 3.8E+7 1.8E+8 1.2E+8 4.4E+7 9.0å+7 2.1å+8 GOES Ie>2 266 735 3297 3374 1812 1697 6750 pfu Ap 90 27 8 8 22 15 21 nô Dst -138 -91 -42 -47 -9 nô KIOTO Amsc 75 21 7 7 18 16 20 nô IZMIRAN --------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary orbits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm*2/s.sr) for events F> 1000 pfu. Pr>10 MeV:to=25.02/2030 UT; max-58.8 pfu 26/0440 UT; to=1.03/12 UT THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT NOT OBSERVED 12-14.02. NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX WITH å>2 MeV IS EX- PECTED 6-10.03. THE PERIOD STARTED WITH A GREAT MAGNETIC STORM (G3, Ams=114, dur.= 36 h) ACCORDING TO BOULDER THE DATA AND (G3, Ams= 86, dur.= 36 h) FROM IZMIRAN DATA, THE CONSEQUENCE OF THE DISTURBATION (CME) FROM THE M3.7/2B FLARE ON 24.02, WHICH SUPERIMPOSED THE HIGH-SPEED STREAM OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL CORONAL HOLES "-" POLARITY. ON OTHER DAYS THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION CHANGED FROM ACTIVE TO UNSETTLED. THE NEXT WEEK IS MOST LIKELY THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WILL CHAN- GING FROM ACTIVE TO UNSETTLED, RECURRENT MAGNETIC STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V.Ishkov