25 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY, THE BRANCH OF RISE: THE PHASE OF RISE Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 06 - 12.03.2023 Forecast on 13 - 19.03.2023 Carrington Rotation 2968 (25,1.02.2023) Earth out of ecliptic (-7.25 - -6.9) deg.) (S25 - N30 is zone of geoeffectiveness) THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS AT MIDDLE AND HIGH LE- VELS. ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE SUN- SPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD IS W= 082+33/-6 (Wn=137+54/-11). ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISC OBSERVED UP 11 SUNSPOT GROUPS, 1 OF WHICH WERE BIG SIZE AND 6 LOCALIZED ON THE SOUTH HEMISPHERE. NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT ACTIVITY EXPECTED ON THE MIDDLE AND HIGH LE- VELS. WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEK IS W=130+40/-50. FLARE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN AT HIGH, MIDDLE AND LOW LEVELS. 5 FLA- RE OF X-RAY CLASS í (ONE WAS LARGE), 71- CLASS ó, 8 EJECTION OF SOLAR FILAMENTS AND 47 CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS, 1 OF WHICH WAS TY- PE IV (360 deg), 1-TYPE III (angular width is 180-270 deg) AND 4- TYPE II (90-180 deg) HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES to tm te localization Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 06.03 0208 0228 0235 N18W63L306 M5.8/2N 4.4E-02 13243 IV/1 CMEII/0312 06.03 0857 0912 0929 N24W86L337 M1.3 2.1E-02 13234 06.03 1724 1750 1810 M1.0 2.1E-02 13242 08.03 0953 1012 1046 M1.1 13242 08.03 2235 2244 2252 S24E14 M1.3/1N 13245 DSF (EPL) to te localization l deg. Fl AR CMEtype/to 06.03 0020 0306 W90 EPL0.27 06.03 <0836 >W90 CME/0836 10.03 1329 1339 EPL/0.17/B.9A ó2.5 13240 CME/1336 10.03 1600 SW CME/1712 11.03 0258 0435 EPL/0.33 11.03 1438 >1703 S45W73L195 35 CMEII/1648 12.03 0258 0435 EPL/0.33 12.03 1745 2115 S27E26L182 ~10 CMEII/1924 ------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY WILL BE AT LOW AND MIDDLE LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING GEOEFFECTIVE CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Spacecraft óî* - N11L170 N11L180 S02L165 N05L161 1.0% 1 á SD0, HINOTORI * - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h. only. Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FROM 26.02/0700 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELDS. NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY "-/+" IT CAN EXPECTED 14.03. ------------------------------------------------------------------- MARCH 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 íáòô Wus 173 191 146 155 135 126 135 F10.7 188 180 182 179 171 157 150 èbcg ó1.6 ó1.1 ó1.1 ó1.0 ó1.0 B8.2 B6.8 GOES Sp 1020 1220 1285 740 700 720 690 msh N 1 1 2 1 1 IMF - - - - - - - DSCOVR Å>2 1.6å+8 4.5E+8 2.0E+8 7.1E+7 2.1E+7 9.0å+7 1.4å+7 GOES Ie>2 3789 3295 2293 3480 1982 955 726 pfu Ap 4 9 7 15 8 6 7 nô Dst nô KIOTO Amsc 12 10 9 17 9 7 7 nô IZMIRAN --------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary orbits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm*2/s.sr) for events F> 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BEGUN 28.02/2155 UT é îáâìàäáìóñ 28.02-11.03. NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX WITH å>2 MeV IS NOT EXPECTED. THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION REMAINED UNSETTLED. THE NEXT WEEK IS MOST LIKELY THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WILL CHAN- GING FROM UNSETTLED TO QUITE. RECURRENT MAGNETIC STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V.Ishkov