25 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY, THE BRANCH OF RISE: THE PHASE OF RISE THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON MARCH 2023 HAS MADE Wmar = 73.6 122.6(in new system) THAT GIVES FOR 33 MONTH (SEPTEMBER 2022) OF DEVELOPMENT CURRENT 25 SOLAR CYCLE THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER W*sep = 57.7 96.2 - in new system W*aug = 55.4 92.3 - in new system On July 1, 2015 Centre in Brussels moved to a new system of calcu- lation the relative number of sunspots and practically all of the values were replaced throughout the numbered series of Wolf numbers (see link). While there is addictive, I recalculated (0.6) to the old system, but only W*, and present below the new values for the minimum and maximum of 25 cycles SA. THE BEGINNING OF 25 SOLAR CYCLE - I 2020 with W*=1.3; (1.8n) THE PHASE OF MINIMUM OF SOLAR CYCLE 25 - 2020 01 - 2021 10 MAXIMUM OF THE CURRENT 25 CYCLE - VI 2024 - Wmax =90-100; (150n) THE END OF 25 SOLAR CYCLE (THE POINT OF MINIMUM) - I - VI 2031; PROVISIONAL DAILY INTERNATIONAL SUNSPOT NUMDER FOR MARCH 2023 (66 observatories): 1.. 93 6..183 11..147 16.. 95 21.. 96 26..152 31..79 2.. 99 7..186í 12..136 17.. 72 22..102 27..155 3..119 8..161 13..103 18.. 53m 23..110 28..145 4..127 9..155 14..115 19.. 73 24..146 29..158 5..149 10..146 15..106 20.. 81 25..152 30..108 [The daily value W in old system close to true (in a minimum phase) can be received, multiplying by k = 0.6]. THE MONTHLY MEAN OF OBSERVED RADIO FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz) ON MARCH 2023, AND SMOOTHES ON SEPTEMBER 2022 F10.7mar = 157.2 F*10.7sep= 138.1 THE MONTHLY MEAN OF GEOMAGNETIC Ap-index ON MARCH 2023, AND SMOOTHES ON SEPTEMBER 2022 Ap mar = 14.5 Ap*sep = xxx --------------------------------------------------------------------- 25 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY, THE BRANCH OF RISE: THE PHASE OF RISE Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 13 - 19.03.2023 Forecast on 20 - 27.03.2023 Carrington Rotation 2968 (25,1.02.2023) Earth out of ecliptic (-6.8 - -6.5) deg.) (S25 - N30 is zone of geoeffectiveness) THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY CHANGED FROM MIDDLE TO LOW LEVELS. ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE SUN- SPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD IS W=061+20/-47 (Wn=102+33-79). ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISC OBSERVED FROM 9 TO 3 SUNSPOT GROUPS AND UP SIX OF THEM LOCALIZED ON THE SOUTH HEMISPHERE. NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT ACTIVITY EXPECTED ON THE LOW AND MIDDLE LE- VELS. WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEK IS W=100+20/-30. FLARE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN AT HIGH, MIDDLE AND LOW LEVELS. 1 FLA- RE OF X-RAY CLASS X, 4-CLASS M, 66-CLASS ó, 4 EJECTION OF SOLAR FILAMENTS AND 39 CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS, ONE OF WHICH WAS TYPE IV (360 deg) AND 4-TYPE II (90-180 deg), HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ----------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES to tm te localization Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 29.03 0218 0233 0240 S21W59L011 X1.2 .58 13256 29.03 1347 1407 1415 S21W67L011 M1.2/1F .010 13256 29.03 2335 2347 2358 S20W72L011 M1.1/1N 13256 30.03 0724 0737 0743 S22W81L011 M5.4/1F .026 13256 II/2|279 IV/2 CME DSF (EPL) to te localization l deg. Fl AR CMEtype/to 28.03 1337 1345 S21W63L 21 SF 13256 30.03 <1100 SE-quadrant 30/1100 30.03 1923 2029 S21W29L ~5 1F 13262 02.04 0600 0800 S07E29L269 8 no CME visible! ------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY WILL BE AT LOW AND MIDDLE LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING GEOEFFECTIVE CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Spacecraft óî - N08L349 N03L357 S15L331 N10L319 4.0% 31.03 3 G1 SD0, HINOTORI * - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h. only. Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FROM 24.03/0730 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELDS. NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY "-/+" IT CAN EXPECTED 9.03. ------------------------------------------------------------------- MARCH 27 28 29 30 31 01 02 APRIL Wus 128 114 135 099 061 023 054 F10.7 158 159 148 140 129 125 127 èbcg B9.6 B9.7 B8.9 B7.5 B6.5 ÷5.9 B4.2 GOES Sp 650 860 560 420 480 150 210 msh N 1 3 2 IMF - - - - - - - DSCOVR Å>2 9.2å+7 8.2E+7 1.8E+8 3.1E+7 3.1E+7 1.2å+8 4.3å+7 GOES Ie>2 1521 1813 3867 1817 1162 3744 1234 pfU Ap 2 4 5 17 20 13 13 nô Dst nô KIOTO Amsc 4 6 5 18 15 14 10 nô IZMIRAN --------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary orbits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm*2/s.sr) for events F> 1000 pfu. Pr>10MeV:30/0730 UT; Tmax1-0930/0.6 pfu; Te-1930. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BEGUN AT 27.03/0305 UT AND OBSERVED 27.03 - 02.04. NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX WITH å>2 MeV BE EX- PECTED 3 - 6.04. THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS UNSETTLED UNTIL THE AFTER HALF OF THE DAY 30.03, WHEN ACCORDING TO THE BOULDER CENTER DATA, A MINOR MAGNE- TIC STORM (G1, Ams =30, dur= 21 h) WAS OBSERVED, ALTHOUGH ACCORDING TO THE DATA OF IZMIRAN AT THIS TIME ONLY A SUBSTORM (G1, dur 9 h) WAS REGISTERED - THERE IS THE TRAIL OF THE EARTH'S PASSAGE OF A HIGH -SPEED STREAM OUT OF AT THE EQUATORIAL CORONAL HOLE "-" POLARITY. THE NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WILL BE MOST PROBABLY UNSET- TLED AND QUIET. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V.Ishkov